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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #161
  • Jul 17, 2007 3:03pm Jul 17, 2007 3:03pm
Quoting zamans98
LOOKING at DIP but not happening for the past few days.. missed the 7700 area!
Oh not that much of a dip. I'm looking for 7850/70 if possible.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #162
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:17pm Jul 17, 2007 5:17pm
There has been considerable speculation here in NZ that the "Kiwi" will be pegged to another currency much like the Yuan is, probably to the the USD and or taxing incoming flows of investment money. Either way the NZ government is in the process of dealing with the high currency so eventually it will come down to a level acceptable to exporters and importers.

A
  • #163
  • Jul 17, 2007 6:07pm Jul 17, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting Fumafuma
Do you really mean it? It doesn't look as though JPY can ever become a pillar of world's financial products except yen-carry trade. Even if Bank of Japan may hike the lowest interest rates in August, it would be no more than 0.75%.
Generally speaking, August is called "summer decline market" month in Japan. Even if each person may close a position(liquidation of longs) at some stage, people would have no alternative other than to reinvest earnings.
interesting insight about that august..

but if they liquidate longs, market will dip. you re-enter only when it dips considerably and not immediately after liquidation - surely these japanese housewives are intelligent to be so successful to do just that. wish i can speak/read nipponggo to chat with some of them.

so the dip will occur. have seen that occur several times, the last occuring between jul6 and jul10 from 96.90 down to 93.20 (NZDJPY).

im not sure if japanese trade cooperatively with each other. locally, Filipinos thrive at the lost of other filipinos.
  • #164
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:18pm Jul 18, 2007 6:18pm
More info...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10452541


A
  • #165
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:33pm Jul 18, 2007 6:33pm
Just more b.s. until the NZD dips below 7950 Im ignoring Cullen. Just like the rest of the market.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #166
  • Edited 8:53pm Jul 18, 2007 8:31pm | Edited 8:53pm
I would agree with Dutch.

So what if New Zealand's Economy grinds to a halt?
Traders dont care a hoot about that.

Mahathir claims Soros syphoned Billions of USD out of Malaysia with far more people than NZ suffering as a result.

Its all business.
  • #167
  • Jul 18, 2007 10:41pm Jul 18, 2007 10:41pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Just more b.s. until the NZD dips below 7950 Im ignoring Cullen. Just like the rest of the market.
Seems like good advice to me.
Waiting for a dip to around 7890/7900 on the way to 8000.
  • #168
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:44am Jul 19, 2007 10:44am
heres an interesting statement from Cullen. I got this from Daliy fx

In the end, the NZ Dominion Post reports for Friday"s paper that Cullen has now admitted that he was he was aiming to unsettle the "Japanese housewives" by talking down the dollar, stating that he thinks it is useful for overseas investors to know about the Reserve Bank act and there may be risks of which they are not aware. The article also refers to comments reported yesterday by Professor Steven Hanke from Johns Hopkins who says that the current system in NZ is creating a "death spiral" and that the Kiwi should be pegged to a currency like the USD.
  • #169
  • Jul 19, 2007 11:43am Jul 19, 2007 11:43am
If the NZD is pegged, then it will be removed from online forex.

that will not stop the housewives from buying nzd though and it would even look more attractive to buy as it will now be "stable"...
  • #170
  • Jul 19, 2007 11:47am Jul 19, 2007 11:47am
NZD is pegged? what does that mean?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #171
  • Jul 19, 2007 11:58am Jul 19, 2007 11:58am
i am short at 0.7927...

Aiming for .7900

seems like it doesnt have enough strength to cross above 0.7932
  • #172
  • Jul 19, 2007 12:01pm Jul 19, 2007 12:01pm
Quoting karmostaji
NZD is pegged? what does that mean?
Good question. Maybe Cullen & gov buddies are high. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif It seems like all they do is complain about how high their currency is & what will they do next week? Probably raise the rates again.
Like Burger says, nows the time to buy. Probably by this time next week it will be banging off 8100. If all Mr. Cullen is going to do is try to talk down the NZD, I sure the housewives will just turn up the radio while they vacuum.
  • #173
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:50pm Jul 19, 2007 7:50pm
While we wait there is some good opportunities to day trade the NZD. It seems like it will hit a certain resistance (like .7940) and bounce of that for a couple of days if there is no major fundamentals that will push it through. It will eventually break it until it hits another big resistance. The next one probably .80c.
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  • #174
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:45pm Jul 19, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting LiveLoud
While we wait there is some good opportunities to day trade the NZD. It seems like it will hit a certain resistance (like .7940) and bounce of that for a couple of days if there is no major fundamentals that will push it through. It will eventually break it until it hits another big resistance. The next one probably .80c.

almost hit 7955 few minutes ago. But still, I'm waiting for 7800-7900 for a BUY on DIP.

RBNZ cannot do anything right now. NZD will fall like shit if they peg to USD or against a basket of selected currencies. Then I can see NZD @ 0.7000-0.7200
  • #175
  • Edited 9:18pm Jul 19, 2007 8:54pm | Edited 9:18pm
Dont go crazy buying right now..
wait for it to dip.

always watch NZDJPY instead of NZDUSD


BTW.. There is word that Japanese are lined up to buy on dips. This suggests that if there is any downward movement next week, they will be buying to lift it back up.
  • #176
  • Jul 19, 2007 8:55pm Jul 19, 2007 8:55pm
haven't traded this pair for a long time. the last time i saw it nzd was at 0.69
  • #177
  • Jul 23, 2007 8:50pm Jul 23, 2007 8:50pm
8110 today. Thought it would take at least another day or two.
  • #178
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:31am Jul 24, 2007 2:31am
Quoting rbock
8110 today. Thought it would take at least another day or two.
And I thought I was looking at AUDUSD.
  • #179
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:13am Jul 24, 2007 5:13am
Quoting BurgerKing
BTW.. There is word that Japanese are lined up to buy on dips. This suggests that if there is any downward movement next week, they will be buying to lift it back up.
A little while ago I saw the Japanese largest forex broker's(Gaitame.Com/about 110,000 accounts) information site. It says that NZD further continues to challenge untamed territory. Oh well. People will wait for buying on dips...
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #180
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:18am Jul 24, 2007 5:18am
Quoting karmostaji
NZD is pegged? what does that mean?
Fixed to a value relative to another ccy, the way CNY was relative to the USD for a decade, up to two years ago. It's more likely that they will go for a banded (i.e. dirty) float, I would think, before they actually go back to a peg.
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