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  • #43,481
  • Edited 10:24am Sep 19, 2024 9:26am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting Silver-King
Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps: Jan 3, 2001 - S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days - Unemployment rose another 2.1% - Recession Sep 18, 2007 - S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days - Unemployment rose another 5.3% - Recession Sep 18, 2024 - ? - ? - ? This isn't my comment and I took it from the comment section on YouTube. Interesting! Maybe there's a pattern hahah. S&P will fall ~69% in the next 296 days.

here's a picture that illustrates better what your trying to say..

as you may know in USA all we care about is stocks and the stockmarkets since we all have our money in IRA's and other retirement accounts.

I'm glad you didn't bring up some wild conspiracy theories why the market will correct for the next couple years which is normal behavior for its health LOL

another guy posted this chart first in another room so I stole it from him LOL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2024-08-04 230450.png Size: 102 KB
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #43,482
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 19, 2024 9:32am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} here's a picture that illustrates better what your trying to say.. as you may know in USA all we care about is stocks and the stockmarkets since we all have our money in IRA's and other retirement accounts. I'm glad you didn't bring up some wild conspiracy theories why the market will correct for the next couple years which is normal behavior for its health LOL another guy posted that chart first in another room so I stole it from LOL {image}
Thanks for the chart! It's great! Do you have perhaps an exact chart, but Gold not S&P perhaps?
So, on average S&P drops around 40% during the Fed cutting cycle?

One would think that the Fed cutting rates is completely bullish for stocks, but this chart is interesting. This is like a loooooooong buy the rumour, sell the fact thing going on on this chart.

I mean when I looked at the Gold chart and Fed cutting rates, Gold would usually rally for some months before that big correction would kick in (official recession or whatever).

You're right! Fed started their cutting cycle (with 50bps as well!) in September of 2007. and S&P topped just a month later in October of 2007.
I won't comment on the 2020, because it was a weird period.

Fed cut rates on January 3rd 2001. (50bps), however in this case the S&P topped about 4 months earlier in September of 2000.

Interesting... Fed's cutting cycle seems to have a pretty good correlation with the stocks already having topped or about to top.

I mean... we are seeing a bubble of all the bubbles in history, so if S&P tops today and crashes tomorrow I wouldn't be surprised.

PMs initially have a REALLY good reaction to the Fed cutting rates and start heading up fast before the inevitable correction takes place and it seems this was almost always the case. After the correction is over, PMs would double or triple (GFC) the current price.
  • #43,483
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:34am Sep 19, 2024 9:34am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} H4 about to hit the Support, while the Silver just hit it's Support on the H4. We'll see... this could be the end of a retracement, but it might go down some more, however it'd be a little strange in my opinion if it went down even further than this. Will see later and give some prices then.
It's reacting to the H4 Support. However, we'll see if this is just a retracement of the sell or the buy continues and the Gold is going above 2600$.
  • #43,484
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:38am Sep 19, 2024 9:38am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Thanks for the chart! It's great! Do you have perhaps an exact chart, but Gold not S&P perhaps? So, on average S&P drops around 40% during the Fed cutting cycle? One would think that the Fed cutting rates is completely bullish for stocks, but this chart is interesting. This is like a loooooooong buy the rumour, sell the fact thing going on on this chart. I mean when I looked at the Gold chart and Fed cutting rates, Gold would usually rally for some months before that big correction would kick in (official recession or whatever). You're right!...
I stopped doing all the hard work for people a decade ago...anyone that's interested in here can do their own research ..its the best way to learn

start by looking at fed charts on their site ...they have thousands
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #43,485
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:50am Sep 19, 2024 9:50am
Quoting pedro319
As we stand, lows of yesterday will be taken out and 2530 finally tested. This is a likely scenario and I don't know how long will it take. I am not trading anymore this week.
did you dump your shorts?
  • #43,486
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:54am Sep 19, 2024 9:54am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} can you tell me where u're selling + sl + tp? Thanks
That is not nice.. I was waiting for you reply.. But i managed in the end even without your expert advice to short it too! ..and I understood why you don' want to share the secrets of your success...
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #43,487
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:12am Sep 19, 2024 10:12am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} That is not nice.. I was waiting for you reply.. But i managed in the end even without your expert advice to short it too! ..and I understood why you don' want to share the secrets of your success...

I ignored you since we trade different timecharts so there's no point in telling you my stop since it will be wider than your used to scalping 5min charts...if you trade off the hourly and 4H charts than ill tell you
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #43,488
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:12am Sep 19, 2024 10:12am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} That is not nice.. I was waiting for you reply.. But i managed in the end even without your expert advice to short it too! ..and I understood why you don' want to share the secrets of your success...
If you were a fundamentals specialist like everybody else here you could make so much more money!!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,489
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:14am Sep 19, 2024 10:14am
Quoting michiyo
{quote} did you dump your shorts?
No, I married them.
If we go higher will add more.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,490
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:16am Sep 19, 2024 10:16am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} That is not nice.. I was waiting for you reply.. But i managed in the end even without your expert advice to short it too! ..and I understood why you don' want to share the secrets of your success...
you're paying pedro 80 dollars a month at his website so keep listening to him dildanjaro and get your moneys worth ... otherwise he'll leave this room when he stops getting more subscribers for his call signals
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #43,491
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:18am Sep 19, 2024 10:18am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} That is not nice.. I was waiting for you reply.. But i managed in the end even without your expert advice to short it too! ..and I understood why you don' want to share the secrets of your success...
You need to learn how to trade 5 and 10 years chart mate!!
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,492
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:20am Sep 19, 2024 10:20am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} you're paying pedro 80 dollars a month at his website so keep listening to him dildanjaro and get your moneys worth ... otherwise he'll leave this room when he stops getting more subscribers for his call signals
If he was it would have been money well spent instead of losing 1500 dollars.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #43,493
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:30am Sep 19, 2024 10:30am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} you're paying pedro 80 dollars a month at his website so keep listening to him dildanjaro and get your moneys worth ... otherwise he'll leave this room when he stops getting more subscribers for his call signals
it's better to pay someone, anyone instead of taking a sl for 1500$
not even a sl, liquidation
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #43,494
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:31am Sep 19, 2024 10:31am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} If he was it would have been money well spent instead of losing 1500 dollars.
_________ this 1500 bucks he got this Back + many2 MORE $$$ for Pain + sufferin babe aka pedro
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #43,495
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:35am Sep 19, 2024 10:35am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} it's better to pay someone, anyone instead of taking a sl for 1500$ not even a sl, liquidation
_________ soon ur acct. will B REVOKED like this from butterfly lol = for bein a SHIT-DISTURBER
Don’t focus on making $$$, focus on protecting what you have.
  • #43,496
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:37am Sep 19, 2024 10:37am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} You need to learn how to trade 5 and 10 years chart mate!!
if you can hold it for years you'll have no place for all the money you'll make shorting it, eventually this thing will have to come down hard. The question is when will it turn.
  • #43,497
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:37am Sep 19, 2024 10:37am
Quoting DubaiFX
{quote} Nice i also saw same thing it was sentiment instead of charts, but again what ever works for us right? not exactly same level i sold @ 2580 will not go far today 2570 or close should do it, have a nice day
Quoting Whale
{quote} the last hourly close seems not good for bears ATM.. i may be wrong. i will wait for today close.
This is how you make money on Gold. You will never be wrong or sit there and guess.

The price will either:
a) move in a straight line. This does not happen, won't happen.
b) make N times more movement than the total range the price has moved (as if it moved in a straight line).

There's a clever strategy to profit from this. Use hedges. You can never lose. The only scenario that will be unprofitable is if the price moves in a straight line. Zero thought goes into this, you don't care where the price moves. This is what the big boys do, this is how they get all your stop losses hit.
  • #43,498
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:39am Sep 19, 2024 10:39am
Quoting dilidanjaro
{quote} it's better to pay someone, anyone instead of taking a sl for 1500$
I'm sure youre a nice guy and you'd prolly be better off spending that money you pay him to teach yourself instead of ralying on a guru...they're a dime a dozen on the internet...

and regarding the amounts.... I lost 1500 real dollars from an account that can afford it instead of making 10k in virtual playdoh money that you haven't gotten yet and prolly never will the way prop firms are closing all over the world

you'll understand what I'm saying about relying on gurus in a few years time if you are still around trading

teach yourself... if you want to continue this discussion ill be happy to over the weekend instead of during trading hours
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #43,499
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:44am Sep 19, 2024 10:44am
Quoting Zebi
{quote} I'm sure youre a nice guy and you'd prolly be better off spending that money you pay him to teach yourself instead of ralying on a guru...they're a dime a dozen on the internet... and regarding the amounts.... I lost 1500 real dollars from an account that can afford it instead of making 10k in virtual playdoh money that you haven't gotten yet and prolly never will the way prop firms are closing all over the world you'll understand what I'm saying about relying on gurus in a few years time if you are still around trading teach...
Sure, so tell me your trade now and we discuss more in weekend!
Have a nice end of the week!
...I Bet You Ain't Never Seen A Donkey Fly!
  • #43,500
  • Sep 19, 2024 10:49am Sep 19, 2024 10:49am
Quoting Silver-King
{quote} Thanks for the chart! It's great! Do you have perhaps an exact chart, but Gold not S&P perhaps? So, on average S&P drops around 40% during the Fed cutting cycle? One would think that the Fed cutting rates is completely bullish for stocks, but this chart is interesting. This is like a loooooooong buy the rumour, sell the fact thing going on on this chart. I mean when I looked at the Gold chart and Fed cutting rates, Gold would usually rally for some months before that big correction would kick in (official recession or whatever). You're right!...
It's ALL related - The key is knowing which cycle you are in, I posted that the other weekend (Black chart with the UP/Down sequence shown on it from 1900!), then you can watch the 3 month T bond yield to see if it cycles up or down and know that the FED will be forced to follow

Then you will see that all the BIG crashes happen during a certain type of cycle = DOWN - the reason the FED cuts during a DOWN cycle is to PREVENT TRUE Deflation (CREDIT reduction) and stimulate the economy - forget about price Inflation, those down cycles are DEFLATIONARY and they will throw everything they have at it, to prevent it - the same author (the one who published the original work) of that screenshot Zebi posted wrote a book about conquering the crash in 1999 which is worth a read as it talks about "Jaguar finance" which was mentioned during the last down cycle by someone senior in govt in the UK, can't remember who, but it was considered

The problem, is we are not in a DOWN cycle, we are in a UP cycle, so the rules of combat change, hence just the 30% drop in 2020 and a great buying opportunity too boot!

The 1966-1982 period REPEATS from 2034

I also posted a chart of the FED rate as per that screenshot, showing the 40 year half cycle which was DOWN, that cycle is now from 2020 UP for 40 years - so when you view either of those charts that is why the rallies in the FED rate were not that bad compared to pre 1980's, the overall down effect of the cycle suppresses rallies, but now the cycle is up expect things to change

If people open their minds, the future is written right there in the cycles of the markets, you just need to piece it together in a logical fashion

PS - the stock market isn't in a bubble as you're thinking, it is toppy and just needs to correct, which it will do for the next few years

All the "authorities" say you can't time the market, but you can, you just have to know the cycle and wait for it to arrive
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