Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Hi Itme

Still fascinating reading, what is your current veiw on GBP/USD and AUD/USD?. Where does ew see the tops.

Ta pipnic

Thursday November 30 at 9:00 ET

According to my current wave hypothesis, GBP/USD should descend to about 1.9544 (though it could drop to about 1.9500), then rise gradually from there to about 1.9600 to 1.9630, which will be the ultimate high of this upwards trend, and the beginning of a relatively large downwards A-B-C corrective wave pattern.

The top of this trend at about 1.9600 to 1.9630 will be the next low risk / high reward trading opportunity to sell GBP/USD.

itme.


is there any way you can share your ew charts for gbpusd? I am not seeing these levels quite as clearly

Thanks for all your work

Thursday November 30 at 9:45 ET

Trade Signal #262A Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5080

Stop is 1.5111

Target is 1.4750

Risk is 41 pips

Reward is minimum 320 pips

Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

p.s. - more bad news for the US economy piled onto an already full plate caused EUR/CAD to rise more than it otherwise would have. EUR/CAD just made it up to 1.5118 as a result, 7 pips past our stop.

In view of the strong anti-USD sentiment and impending news release at 10:00 ET of Chicago PMI, it was poor judgement to employ such a small stop as we did. The reward : risk ratio could have handled a larger stop. Alternatively, we could have waited until after the news release to strategise our entry on this trade, to minimize the risk of just this thing happening. Live and learn!
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Previous trade signal:

Thursday November 30 at 8:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5050
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__________________________________________________ __________

Previous trade signal:

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005 (error with this entry price, later corrected to 1.5023)
Adjust Stop to 1.5065
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Wednesday November 29 at 9:45 ET
Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5000
Stop is 1.5036
Target is 1.4750
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is minimum 240 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <thead><tr><td class="alt2"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">Personal Income m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.4%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.5%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.5%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3150" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3150" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the monthly change in average personal income received from all sources.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">Personal Spending m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.1%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.1%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3151" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3151" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the total value of consumer purchases of goods and services over the past month. Consumer spending makes up two thirds of GDP and therefore a rising trend generally strengthens a country's currency.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">Core PCE Price Index m/m</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">0.2%</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3152" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3152" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Investica Analysis</legend>

The Fed watches the PCE data closely

</fieldset> <fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Derivative of the PCE Price Index that excludes the Food and Energy items. Food and Energy account for roughly 25% of PCE, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the overal picture. PCE with the exclusion of these volatile components is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 8:30am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">Unemployment Claims</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">357K</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">315K</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">321K</td> <td class="alt2" id="collapsecal_eventanalysis_3153" style="" align="center"> [read] </td> </tr> </thead> <tbody id="collapseobj_eventanalysis_3153" style="display: none;"> <tr> <td class="alt1" style="background-color: rgb(240, 254, 237); padding-bottom: 11px;" colspan="9" width="100%">

<fieldset class="smallfont" style="padding: 4px 10px 2px; width: 70%; margin-bottom: 9px;"> <legend>Definition</legend>

Measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time over the past week. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy. However, unemployment usually draws little attention because traders view it as a lagging indicator.

</fieldset>

</td> </tr> </tbody><thead> <tr> <td class="alt2" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td class="alt2"> 10:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">Chicago PMI</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">49.9</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">55.0</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">53.5</td></tr></thead> </table>

Thursday November 30 at 10:30 ET

Trade Signal #262B Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5130

Stop is 1.5171

Target #1 is 1.4750

Risk is 51 pips

Reward is minimum 370 pips

Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

________________________________________________
________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:

Thursday November 30 at 9:45 ET

Trade Signal #262A Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5080
Stop is 1.5111
Target is 1.4750
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is minimum 320 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

p.s. - more bad news for the US economy piled onto an already full plate caused EUR/CAD to rise more than it otherwise would have. EUR/CAD just made it up to 1.5118 as a result, 7 pips past our stop.

In view of the strong anti-USD sentiment and impending news release at 10:00 ET of Chicago PMI, it was poor judgement to employ such a small stop as we did. The reward : risk ratio could have handled a larger stop. Alternatively, we could have waited until after the news release to strategise our entry on this trade, to minimize the risk of just this thing happening. Live and learn!
__________________________________________________ ___
__________________________________________________ ___

Previous trade signal:

Thursday November 30 at 8:00 ET
Re-entry opportunity for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5050
__________________________________________________ __________
__________________________________________________ __________

Previous trade signal:

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005 (error with this entry price, later corrected to 1.5023)
Adjust Stop to 1.5065
__________________________________________________ ___
__________________________________________________ ___

Wednesday November 29 at 9:45 ET
Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5000
Stop is 1.5036
Target is 1.4750
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is minimum 240 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

Does your system provide for re-evaluation after being stopped out of a position continuously? TSUNAMI ALERT WARNING WAS SINCE 11-24-06

According to my trading system we always adamantly adhere to a particular viewpoint, regardless of conflicting evidence and new developments. That is the secret of success.

"regardless of conflicting evidence and new developments. That is the secret of success". I see. LOL

Comments and wisdom gleaned:

The current high on the AUD/USD currency pair is .7901, which is likely to be the ultimate high.

Given the impending USD news and fragility of the USD, the stop should have been made as large as possible, within the limits of our trading system, to provide some cushion against trends that are augmented by compound news releases, such as occured today. Alternatively, trades can be exited the moment the data is released, to protect against hitting the stop as a result of near certain data release spikes.

In this case, the stop should have been placed at .7911, giving us a risk of 53 pips, and a Reward : Risk ratio of 4.9, which is almost system compliant. To produce system compliance, the entry price can be adjusted slightly.

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Previous trade signal:

Thursday November 30 at 3:00 ET

Trade Signal #250A Sell AUD/USD at .7862
Stop is .7892
Target is .7600
Risk is 34 pips
Reward is 258 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Wednesday November 22 at 8:00 ET
Trade Signal #250 Sell AUD/USD at .7736
Stop is .7754
Target is .7600
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 132 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

itme,

After reviewing the 1 Day 10 Year Charts, I have placed my new Entry at 1.5183

Monarch

Reviewing the 1 Month 30 Charts I have placed my Short Entry at 1.9750.

Monarch

Thursday November 30 at 11:15 ET

This upwards wave 3-3-1 was augmented by several pieces of GBP - positive news releases this morning, so instead of stopping at about 1.9600 to 1.9630 as expected, it rose all the way to 1.9690.

If the news had happened to favor the USD, then the GBP/USD might have stopped at 1.9600 or even lower.

Trade Signal #261A Sell GBP/USD at 1.9690

Stop is 1.9721

Target is 1.9300

Risk is 35 pips

Reward is 286 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 11.0 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Previous comments and trade signal:

GBP/USD prediction for Thursday November 30 at 9:00 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Thursday November 30 at 9:00 ET

According to my current wave hypothesis, GBP/USD should descend to about 1.9544 (though it could drop to about 1.9500), then rise gradually from there to about 1.9600 to 1.9630, which will be the ultimate high of this upwards trend, and the beginning of a relatively large downwards A-B-C corrective wave pattern.

The top of this trend at about 1.9600 to 1.9630 will be the next low risk / high reward trading opportunity to sell GBP/USD.

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Tuesday November 28 at 19.00 ET
Trade Signal #261 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9540
Stop is 1.9571
Target is 1.9300
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is 236 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.6 to 1

For research purposes only.
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itme the possible high can be 9774 which would be 261.8 of this five wave on the monthly just a heads up cable is like a runnaway train right now and it will also be R3 as far as resistance we are far pass R2 right now

Looks like the GBP did runaway like a train and never stopped on the way.

The R3 Weekly is the nesxt station at 1.9769, lets wait in line and see if it will let us onboard this time.

Monarch

Thursday November 30 at 12:15 ET

We were stopped out of Trade Signal #246 due to several data releases that caused a strong rise in AUD/USD, and for some reason a concurrent rise in USD/CAD. If it hadn't been for these influential data releases and the unusual response of the CAD, then the original trade concept would almost surely have been successfull.

Trade Signal #246A Sell AUD/CAD at .9018

Stop is .9061

Target is .8600

Risk is 47 pips

Reward is 414 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 8.8 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

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Previous trade signals:

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8973 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday November 29 at 19:00 ET

The entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930 was missed by only 1 pip. Upon further analysis we feel that this was only the top of Wave 3, and that another rise is possible. Therefore adjust entry price to .8973, and stop to .9006.

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .8973

Adjust stop for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .9006

The target stays the same, so the reward : risk ratio will be increased to 6.1 : 1
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Wednesday November 29 at 8:45 ET

The trade opportunity that has been predicted for some time is very near now:

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930
Stop is .8961
Target is .8700
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
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Thursday November 23 at 21:00 ET

I will repost my previous AUD/CAD trade signal. This still looks like a fine opportunity to short at either .8880 or .8890 after a very long trend upwards that has been underway since September 28 and will have carried the price up 590 pips.
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Monday November 20 at 17:00 ET

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8890
Stop is .8925
Target is .8660
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 221 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

Note: the entry price should be reached in a few days, and as early as November 21.

hey fixme, how did you calculate this high?

question about entry techniques:

provided the fact that currencies hardly ever stop and reverse completely without a long consolidation period, would it be unwise to forecast reversal areas, and then wait for price to stall, consolidate, etc and then get in before the acceleration?

i know fixme posted this before. where is this from?

page 29 of his thread