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  • #381
  • Sep 18, 2024 1:13pm Sep 18, 2024 1:13pm
Not surprising, but not given. Close above 19630 I would consider bullish for the coming days. Nice trade Fadhl
  • #382
  • Sep 18, 2024 1:13pm Sep 18, 2024 1:13pm
FED projections:
*FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’24 AT 4.4%; PREV. 5.1%
*FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’25 AT 3.4%; PREV. 4.1%
*FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’26 AT 2.9%; PREV. 3.1%
*FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’27 AT 2.9%
*FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST LONGER-RUN AT 2.9%; PREV. 2.8%
================
We should see another .50 before Dec. 24.
It means clearly that the FED is timely tackling the recession.
  • #383
  • Sep 18, 2024 1:22pm Sep 18, 2024 1:22pm
Quoting pd9000
Not surprising, but not given. Close above 19630 I would consider bullish for the coming days. Nice trade Fadhl
Thanks Mate
  • #384
  • Sep 18, 2024 1:51pm Sep 18, 2024 1:51pm
Most important information to take just now from the interviews questions - they will continue qt, not planning on stopping it any time soon. Expect the stock plunge with bs news trying to explain it now
  • #385
  • Sep 18, 2024 2:10pm Sep 18, 2024 2:10pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} This was triggered! Nice surprise for market. Very dovish! GL!
Took off 50%, moved to BE and let it run until the end of day.
Hope that some/few of you took this trade as well!
  • #386
  • Sep 18, 2024 2:50pm Sep 18, 2024 2:50pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Took off 50%, moved to BE and let it run until the end of day. Hope that some/few of you took this trade as well!
Closed all! It was a nice day for me
See you tomorrow!
  • #387
  • Sep 19, 2024 7:30am Sep 19, 2024 7:30am
Good day!
TA Analysis:
Yesterday close was a tricky one: The daily candle provided on one hand a new HH and on the other hand a bearish close.
From TA perspective, we would see a continuation down. However, both Asian and London sessions provided strong bullish candles and broke yesterday HH.
Clearly market was very happy with the FED decision.
What should we expect from NY session?
I see a retrace to yesterday high, then a continuation up to test August high (19937).
FA Analysis:
FED decision was well received; FED is timely cutting its rate and the projection is telling additional cuts are expected. So the FED recognizes the slowing down of the economy.
This said, I still think that Equities should deeply drop to be inline with the economy status.
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  • #388
  • Sep 19, 2024 8:37am Sep 19, 2024 8:37am
NY 5min Opening range is bearish.
We wait for a break, retest with displacement and we sell it to yesterday high.
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  • #389
  • Sep 19, 2024 8:59am Sep 19, 2024 8:59am
Quoting Fadhl
NY 5min Opening range is bearish. We wait for a break, retest with displacement and we sell it to yesterday high. {image}
Here is my planned Sell entry if the candle that retests the opening range is bearish.
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  • #390
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:11am Sep 19, 2024 9:11am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Here is my planned Sell entry if the candle that retests the opening range is bearish. {image}
I'm in. GL!
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  • #391
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:23am Sep 19, 2024 9:23am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I'm in. GL! {image}
Stopped out!
I'm done for the day. Will see the close at the end of day and re-assess.

Note: My strategy, as you can see, is not promising 100% win rate, but it provides a 50-60% win rate which is enough to make money.
Control/limit your losses is the key.
  • #392
  • Sep 19, 2024 9:53am Sep 19, 2024 9:53am
Thanks for all your posts and patience responses, I like the trading and learning here !!

Can you please share some insight on the "NY 5min Opening range"? I see you refer to that most times to gauge direction for a trade. With NQ being up almost 2% overnight, to me it appears a very bullish day, and I would discount the NY 5 min open candle. I personally would not take a short entry today. But would love to learn more about the opening range concept that you refer to and if there is any videos/literature you can point to. Thanks !!
  • #393
  • Sep 19, 2024 11:02am Sep 19, 2024 11:02am
Quoting BikB
Thanks for all your posts and patience responses, I like the trading and learning here !! Can you please share some insight on the "NY 5min Opening range"? I see you refer to that most times to gauge direction for a trade. With NQ being up almost 2% overnight, to me it appears a very bullish day, and I would discount the NY 5 min open candle. I personally would not take a short entry today. But would love to learn more about the opening range concept that you refer to and if there is any videos/literature you can point to. Thanks !!
Thanks for your message and question!
The opening range is where the most liquidity enter the market during NY session and usually within the first hour. So I use the 5min (you can use 1min/10min/15min) TF to take advantage of this liquidity.
After 5min (the range), price has three options:
1- Break up;
2- Break down;
3- Consolidate.
I trade 1&2 based on the breakout and re-test.
Hope it helps.
  • #394
  • Sep 19, 2024 11:04am Sep 19, 2024 11:04am
Quoting BikB
Thanks for all your posts and patience responses, I like the trading and learning here !! Can you please share some insight on the "NY 5min Opening range"? I see you refer to that most times to gauge direction for a trade. With NQ being up almost 2% overnight, to me it appears a very bullish day, and I would discount the NY 5 min open candle. I personally would not take a short entry today. But would love to learn more about the opening range concept that you refer to and if there is any videos/literature you can point to. Thanks !!
Regarding today's trade, the strategy told me to go short which was inline with my analysis that I shared earlier: Expecting a retrace to yesterday high then continuing up to August high. Hence I took the trade and I was stopped out.
  • #395
  • Sep 19, 2024 3:12pm Sep 19, 2024 3:12pm
End of day TA Analysis
NQ is closing very bullish. We've a new HH daily and weekly. Also we've TL broke.
So what do we expect?
A continuation up: next Resistance is not far away: 19957 (July High).
Tomorrow, we might see a consolidation to close the week at high level. Anyhow, it's too late to jump in the buy side. We need a retrace that it was not given today; it might come tomorrow at the opening.
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However NQ Futures did not create a new HH! If tomorrow, NQ! does not break and close above 20251 (August high), price has a good chance to go back to test the previous swing (August low).
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  • #396
  • Sep 20, 2024 7:27am Sep 20, 2024 7:27am
Quoting Fadhl
End of day TA Analysis NQ is closing very bullish. We've a new HH daily and weekly. Also we've TL broke. So what do we expect? A continuation up: next Resistance is not far away: 19957 (July High). Tomorrow, we might see a consolidation to close the week at high level. Anyhow, it's too late to jump in the buy side. We need a retrace that it was not given today; it might come tomorrow at the opening. {image} However NQ Futures did not create a new HH! If tomorrow, NQ! does not break and close above 20251 (August high), price has a good chance to...
Good day!
Nothing really to update from yesterday analysis.
NQ retraced and created a bullish flag that is currently being broken up. The retest of the breakout will give an opportunity to go long. However, I'll wait for NY opening range to jump in.
See you later!
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  • #397
  • Sep 20, 2024 8:50am Sep 20, 2024 8:50am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Good day! Nothing really to update from yesterday analysis. NQ retraced and created a bullish flag that is currently being broken up. The retest of the breakout will give an opportunity to go long. However, I'll wait for NY opening range to jump in. See you later! {image}
NQ broke the TL and retested it which is a good place to go long.
After the 5min opening range, we have always the two options (i.e., breakout and retest to go long or short).
However, we have another TA hint: if no body candle closes above the high of the range, price should go to the low of the swing (all are highlighted with a cercle).
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  • #398
  • Sep 20, 2024 8:59am Sep 20, 2024 8:59am
Also break of LOW retest and then sell?
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  • #399
  • Sep 20, 2024 9:02am Sep 20, 2024 9:02am
Quoting Eagle-Eye
Also break of LOW retest and then sell? {image}
Yes, but in my view this move down is to grab liquidity and go up. You might not get a test of the 5min range.
  • #400
  • Sep 20, 2024 9:04am Sep 20, 2024 9:04am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Yes, but in my view this move down is to grab liquidity and go up. You might not get a test of the 5min range.
I'm long from 19755, SL 19740. Where to put TP? 19790 and the SELL?
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