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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #8,521
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:36pm Jul 18, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting trader8686
Do u mind sharing your indicator here?
I use a strength indicator(MACD,RSI,ATR), StochRSI indicator,Momentum indicator and standerd diviation indicator on daily, 4HR ,30min chrats on GBP/JPY,USD/JPY, GBP/USD. But I exclusively trade GBP/JPY.
  • #8,522
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:45pm Jul 18, 2007 6:45pm
Would the following apply to all crosses as well?

By John Jagerson, 18 July 2007

Chinese GDP is due today at 10:00PM U.S. Eastern. Forex traders should be watching this event very closely. As we are all aware, the Chinese economy is growing at a break-neck pace and there are consequences for this kind of growth. These consequences are looming on the horizon and getting closer all the time. The results are likely to impact the forex and in particular the JPY.
The risk on this pair is definitely biased to the downside barring a complete surprise from the Chinese. I should note that the last GDP release did not result in a big sell-off on this pair but I think this was largely due to the fact that CPI inflation rates had just recently popped up above 3%. We have now been above 3% for a quarter and the pressure is building.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #8,523
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:01pm Jul 18, 2007 8:01pm

Quoting fixme1too
careful with your short rest of the week should be long...

Quoting fixme1too
252 over the horizon and we are past "hump day" which is Wednesday without no strong sign of reversal also past mid part of month without reaching monthly ATR yet and actually we are 200 pips away from it and 10 days left in the month to trade.. rest of month is looking long as well... so be careful with the short
Happy Trading

FiXmE1ToO

man i love u....ur insight not much and not little...
just enough...
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #8,524
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:38pm Jul 18, 2007 8:38pm
Quoting bluerose
Greetings Monarch and everyone ,

Thank you so much, Monarch, for monitoring the pair. I gather that 251 may have to wait a little bit, after we see 246.3, 245 and hopefully 237 again?
May I know how do you come up with these numbers: 246.3, 245 and hopefully 237 ? Are they from the Fibonacci Retracement, or else?
  • #8,525
  • Jul 18, 2007 10:34pm Jul 18, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting trader8686
May I know how do you come up with these numbers: 246.3, 245 and hopefully 237 ? Are they from the Fibonacci Retracement, or else?
Hi, I use pivot points from the actionforex.com site (for daily, 4H and 1H) to obtain 246.3 which was the S3 for daily pivot point for GBPJPY when I wrote the message. You would recall that the other two numbers are where the dips happened last July 11 and July 6, respectively. These numbers are also, not surprisingly, plotted on the Bollinger Bands-Fibonacci Ratios of the 4H candles of GBPJPY (I use VT platform to read charts). Regards BR.
  • #8,526
  • Jul 19, 2007 12:16am Jul 19, 2007 12:16am
Quoting bluerose
Hi, I use pivot points from the actionforex.com site (for daily, 4H and 1H) to obtain 246.3 which was the S3 for daily pivot point for GBPJPY when I wrote the message. You would recall that the other two numbers are where the dips happened last July 11 and July 6, respectively. These numbers are also, not surprisingly, plotted on the Bollinger Bands-Fibonacci Ratios of the 4H candles of GBPJPY (I use VT platform to read charts). Regards BR.
Hi blue rose.. Do you use the momentum indicator on VT? I religiously follow the momentum indicator speacially on the start of very next hourly bar after a major news release. It always tell me the market direction.
  • #8,527
  • Jul 19, 2007 12:48am Jul 19, 2007 12:48am
Quoting auslanco
Hi blue rose.. Do you use the momentum indicator on VT? I religiously follow the momentum indicator speacially on the start of very next hourly bar after a major news release. It always tell me the market direction.
Hi Auslanco, No, I do not use momentum indicator for trend. I just eyeball the daily chart for trend. I use ADX to measure the strength of the trend. I also use Price Trend to identify main and mini trend..I do not trade news. Regards BR.
  • #8,528
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:24am Jul 19, 2007 3:24am
My bloody gosh I pity those who have been watching this pair the last few weeks. I been on holiday and just got back today.

Looked about as entertaining and watching paint dry these last few weeks.

Now what do we trend traders do when it goes that way ------------->
  • #8,529
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:28am Jul 19, 2007 3:28am
we go to sleep
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #8,530
  • Jul 19, 2007 3:29am Jul 19, 2007 3:29am
Dont be in hurry to go short. Price has to convincingly beat the 249.27 to start the bearish journey. still the short term market is bullish. If it manages to break 249.27 and form a one hour bar.. then the down trend is about 300 to 400 plus pips easy by middle of next week, since daily charts are already bearish for the last week or so.
  • #8,531
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:33am Jul 19, 2007 4:33am
Now i see the correction. my recommendation - buy. The pair will grow up on two figures, i think.
  • #8,532
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:55am Jul 19, 2007 4:55am
Long at 249.80,...
Bounce!!!!!
  • #8,533
  • Jul 19, 2007 5:14am Jul 19, 2007 5:14am
long at 249.92. i hope to see a pair on 252
  • #8,534
  • Jul 19, 2007 5:19am Jul 19, 2007 5:19am
Be very careful on GBP/JPY Longs. As I mentioned earlier daily charts were bearish from the 11th July. It just didnt have the 4hr support to shoot south. Now 4hr charts are slowly turning bearish. I think market will be choppy around or below 250.25 area for the next 4-8 hours.If the price stays around 250.25 and choppy for the next 4-8hrs that will be the end of Bullish rally for GBP/JPY. There will be a major retracement soon, down to 245 area within about few days.
I have closed all my GBP/JPY positions untill I see a clear direction .
  • #8,535
  • Jul 19, 2007 7:20am Jul 19, 2007 7:20am
Quoting bluerose
Hi, I use pivot points from the actionforex.com site (for daily, 4H and 1H) to obtain 246.3 which was the S3 for daily pivot point for GBPJPY when I wrote the message. You would recall that the other two numbers are where the dips happened last July 11 and July 6, respectively. These numbers are also, not surprisingly, plotted on the Bollinger Bands-Fibonacci Ratios of the 4H candles of GBPJPY (I use VT platform to read charts). Regards BR.
That's right, first two numbers are fine for me, but 237......I don't know ?????
  • #8,536
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:06am Jul 19, 2007 10:06am
We're slowly approaching the trendline from 10 to 17 july. It looks we'll get there somewhere around london open which coincides nicely with UK GDP data. So I guess that is the time we'll see some action and the data will probably lead the direction.

On a sustained break of the trendline (H4 close below) I'll be closing my longs to secure profits. With the news as expected or better I'll add more longs on the bounce and I already have buy order waiting at 250.75 and above.
If that all plays out, I'll be holding a nice 10 lots to unload around 260 .

BTW, anyone long aussie/yen? It's providing my paycheck this month (52,8% up and counting on that account since july 3rd...)
  • #8,537
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:26am Jul 19, 2007 10:26am
GJ struggling to climb up for now...consolidation or getting ready retracement??
  • #8,538
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:27am Jul 19, 2007 10:27am
Quoting BaasHarm!
We're slowly approaching the trendline from 10 to 17 july. It looks we'll get there somewhere around london open which coincides nicely with UK GDP data. So I guess that is the time we'll see some action and the data will probably lead the direction.

On a sustained break of the trendline (H4 close below) I'll be closing my longs to secure profits. With the news as expected or better I'll add more longs on the bounce and I already have buy order waiting at 250.75 and above.
If that all plays out, I'll be holding a nice 10 lots to unload around 260 .

BTW, anyone long aussie/yen? It's providing my paycheck this month (52,8% up and counting on that account since july 3rd...)
Went short AUD/JPY today at 107.45. Hope the short gives me that 52%
  • #8,539
  • Jul 19, 2007 10:48am Jul 19, 2007 10:48am
Quoting Timingy
Went short AUD/JPY today at 107.45. Hope the short gives me that 52%
Ouch, that is going to hurt you.
Where did you base that decision on?
  • #8,540
  • Jul 19, 2007 11:02am Jul 19, 2007 11:02am
Quoting BaasHarm!
Ouch, that is going to hurt you.
Where did you base that decision on?
New trend highs at 107.45, for the fifth session, left the studies highly overbought hoping for a 105.80 dip. Tight stop at 107.6 so not too concerned about loss if doesn't go as expected.
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