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Quoting The Fool
{quote}......this time I gave up the fight agin the melt-up in round 2, took off the 5625/5630 diag for $6.50 and the 5635 long call for $18. And I am flat, pondering trades for the FOMC aftermath...
a minute after closing SPX jogged down...in the last 1/2 hr it ranged 5619 to 5629 and closed at 5625.x....oh well. 65c in and $6.50 out nothing to sneeze at. SnP's biggest bull week for the year & my best weekly gain in a while.

It seems like the gimme for fomc week is they will hike 25bps and indices will rally to new ath's. Probably RUT has the most room to run.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
NOTHING BUT BLUE SKY ABOVE
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
25 OR 50, 50 OR 25, Finally we find out come 9/18. Seems obvious: 25 we rally, 50 we slide. So obvious, it must be wrong. Could be markets are confused also, So, I'll throw the works at it.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
fly guards the middle of a dbl diagonal
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
entered a RUT dbl cldr for 2 weeks out, looking to close by the 25th, we'll see
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
My best guess for the big show is fomc does 50 bps and all indices rally hard into next week. My 2nd best guess is they do 25bps and indices rally to new ath's. Also very plausible is we get a pullback regardless of what they do. So, yeah, shotgun time. We shall see soon enough. Just shoot in the general direction and hope for the best. I am likely gonna put on a wild card NDX trade re: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15001099
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
The RUT dbl cldr is what's below - would not surprise me at all to see RUT make 2,300 by Friday. I might put on some IWM call verts tomorrow morning to guard that tail. I'll be watching how RUT moves after the presser and may take off the put side pdq if RUT is firmly northbound. Looking to hang in on the trade generally til early next week and will probably get forced out of one side or the other on margin calls, at least partially.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
to put on today, a delta neutral double diagonal for the AM/PM gap. Modeled @ 5.5% iv drop, it will probably be more than that if there's a rally. Will needa decent move either way. To come off near the close on Thursday.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
new trades
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
kind of confused reaction to the FOMC today, but now into asia spoos up >50, hoping that holds and we close at new ath Thursday. I am in the AM/PM dbl diag for $5, I expect a big vol dump Thurs but still I may net $10 out the call side and maybe a little bit from the puts if I close the puts early. I'll be very happy to see >$5 net....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Looking for a big risk-on breakout next week & high hopes for the NDX calendars - in the 20,600s for $2.25 and not out of my mind to say we could see a 800-1,000 pt green week candle and those cldrs could go to >$40! I also have 20,800s that I got for 75c....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Biggest set I have, 30+ all told, is the RUT dbl cldrs....easy to see a target on 2300. If anything will meltup on the ratecut it'll be the Russell and I'll bet we will be pushing past 2,300 early next week. In the whole thing for $2.15 and I will hope to net out double or triple that, will have to close some early on the late term margin requirement, but hey that's a high class problem...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
I am in the AM/PM dbl diag for $5, I expect a big vol dump Thurs but still I may net $10 out the call side and maybe a little bit from the puts if I close the puts early. I'll be very happy to see >$5 net....
closed the put spreads for 25c and the call spreads for $8.75, so $4 net out. Coulda done a little better by waiting til the close, but I had meetings conflicting, so ...grab that cash. Vol crush always a bummer on call spreads but that's unavoidable. I didn't have big numbers in this combo, have lots of other trades on, but I'll be revisiting this dbl diagonal setup, for sure.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
I paid alot for the AM/PM spreads above, because iv's have been elevated in the runup to the big fomc. iv's will be draining further in the coming week, I expect. I kind of expect further drift up or consol next week, in the last full week of the quarter.

I need some short deltas and will try to enter some downside safe diagonals such as shown below. (Need to come up with a catchy name for this diag type.) Will look 2 weeks out or maybe 3. I think 2 weeks is the sweet spot but not sure yet. One week carries a margin impact that I want to avoid. Easy to make a case for a pullback as we get closer to the election...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
{quote}closed the put spreads for 25c and the call spreads for $8.75, so $4 net out. Coulda done a little better by waiting til the close, but I had meetings conflicting, so ...grab that cash. Vol crush always a bummer on call spreads but that's unavoidable.
calls went $6.50 at the close...I don't think they ever went over $10. Drawback of the AM/PM setup is there will be some theta left for the short leg, as it does not expire until Friday morning pre-market...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
I paid alot for the AM/PM spreads above, ...
TF, you so dumb, you should just trade verticals.

Coming up October, usually a volatile month, now ahead of US elections. The cat's out the Fed's bag now and the rate cuts have begun, but it'll be the same old game - will they or won't they? 25 or 50? what does the data say? And eyes on earnings, with the heavy hitters coming up in the last week of Oct, a week before the elections.

I'm looking for vol to come off a little bit anyway in the next week or so, then maybe get into a gigachad put spread...election day is 11/5/24. Easy to see a pullback to under 5300, if the Goldilocks fairy tale starts to turn schrecklich...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
Looking for a big risk-on breakout next week & high hopes for the NDX calendars - in the 20,600s for $2.25 and not out of my mind to say we could see a 800-1,000 pt green week candle and those cldrs could go to >$40! I also have 20,800s that I got for 75c....
idk...I need to see some green days to start the week. Need NDX 20,000 or better to make some profit....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
October is a place bull markets go to die. A pullback to the 50 sma in 2-3 weeks would be 5500 or a little lower...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
NVDA
Long at the money weekly puts option.
last close 116.00 last friday close
nvda sept 27 2024 expire in 4 days
long 116 put at 2.74
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