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Let's Trade Options

  • #19,681
  • Sep 5, 2024 1:19am Sep 5, 2024 1:19am
a Mon/Fri put cldr and a Mon put vert combo...putting the calendar strike at about 2x the ex:move

@Fri....
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but try to catch black Monday...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,682
  • Edited 6:25pm Sep 5, 2024 9:59am | Edited 6:25pm
trying to take off some of the SPX Sep20/23 5275 put cldrs for $2.50; added the Sep9 SPX call backspreads @ 5655/5650 for $1.50. The latter covered by the cldr sell and also will make up for any cldr loss if we get a bounce off the NFP. I might spring some RUT gambles b4 the close...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,683
  • Sep 6, 2024 3:15pm Sep 6, 2024 3:15pm
QQQ bear trades all made money; SPX call spreads lost. A wash. SPX put cldrs all I have left running, they are about $2 in profit, will see what the bears can do next week.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,684
  • Sep 6, 2024 3:52pm Sep 6, 2024 3:52pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,685
  • Sep 6, 2024 6:23pm Sep 6, 2024 6:23pm
if you shoot from a couple weeks out, these AM/PM SPX diagonals, 10 pts wide, can usually be put on for a small profit. If you don't want to burn the margin, the calendars are cheap also. What you earn from the diag credit can be plowed back in to the trade as a vert or long call that hedges the diag tail risk. So, the trade can go on for a very small debit, with no downside risk, and a guarded upside tail risk.

The same date calendar usually costs 40-60c and needs much less margin committed. I don't really think stocks will rally much in the next week, but they could bounce off the 9/18 FOMC. Always just a matter of time. Low risk trades should be there just in case. General approach is to not wait til near expiry, grab 2x-3x asap.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,686
  • Sep 6, 2024 10:39pm Sep 6, 2024 10:39pm
Can the bears keep the bear train going til the Sep FOMC? 5100 is a decent target. Sep20 ex-move is 210, gets ya 5200....combo shown is risk free below 5320, risks <$2500 to make up to $20k or even more, with a perfect finish...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,687
  • Sep 8, 2024 11:39pm Sep 8, 2024 11:39pm
all inflation data this week, lets employment & other econ data take a breather, could see a decent bounce in small caps
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,688
  • Sep 8, 2024 11:53pm Sep 8, 2024 11:53pm
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/f...120300076.html

piggyback Icahn on JBLU
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,689
  • Sep 9, 2024 3:29pm Sep 9, 2024 3:29pm
letting SPX put calendar ride, will cash it out tomorrow if rally continues. Added the call combo shown, for this week. I have to bet we'll see decreasing inflation data and markets will rally on that.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,690
  • Sep 10, 2024 11:58pm Sep 10, 2024 11:58pm
no closes today, added a little long delta @ XSP calendars, just waiting for the inflation data to see what that does....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,691
  • Edited 10:45pm Sep 11, 2024 8:10pm | Edited 10:45pm
A Friday pin 5600 will be ideal. Big move up has decimated much of the profit in the put calendars. (They were near $2.50 net on the swing down today.) There's still time in them but I'll maybe cash them out tomorrow. Looking for a perfect finish for the SPX and XSP call spreads.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,692
  • Sep 11, 2024 11:03pm Sep 11, 2024 11:03pm
gimme a RUT move off the FOMC. some ideas....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,693
  • Sep 12, 2024 4:01pm Sep 12, 2024 4:01pm
Quoting The Fool
A Friday pin 5600 will be ideal. Big move up has decimated much of the profit in the put calendars. (They were near $2.50 net on the swing down today.) There's still time in them but I'll maybe cash them out tomorrow. Looking for a perfect finish for the SPX and XSP call spreads. {image} {image}
Closed all the XSP 560 call calendars for $1.75, very nice. I tried to cash out 1/3 of the SPX call diagonals for $5.25, but she never quite got there. All are riding, with their hedges, for another 5600 pin day Friday. The diagonals could get >$10, we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,694
  • Sep 12, 2024 10:17pm Sep 12, 2024 10:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Closed all the XSP 560 call calendars for $1.75, very nice. I tried to cash out 1/3 of the SPX call diagonals for $5.25, but she never quite got there. All are riding, with their hedges, for another 5600 pin day Friday. The diagonals could get >$10, we'll see.
Trick Friday is to fish the theoretical maximum out of the SPX call diagonals - somewhere around $18, will occur if SPX closes near (but below) 5615 in the last 1/2 hour or so of the trading day. Very hard to pull that off, but I have done it. Will be watching for SPX to open and flag around 5600 and then grind up a bit after lunch. With the ATR around 40+, different moves probably more likely. TF needs a lucky day though, for a change. I have across 3 accounts about 18 of those combos. Perfect day would be > $35k just off the hedged SPX diagonals. Eyes on the prize. (I also have a set of 5620/5625/5630, same dates, same goal, but will help if SPX keeps melting up.)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,695
  • Sep 13, 2024 12:01am Sep 13, 2024 12:01am
what a wicked reversal on Wed, and a little echo of it today. My hope is, after big moves for 2 previous days, we flag on a friday....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,696
  • Sep 13, 2024 12:09am Sep 13, 2024 12:09am
fomc 9/18...50 or 25, 25 or 50? zzzzforever, but, what will indices do either way? My best guess is we rally on 25 and pull back on 50. I wii have a little bit riding on the bear case....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,697
  • Sep 13, 2024 12:51am Sep 13, 2024 12:51am
looking at 2 weeks out...note the diagonal with no downside risk, and similar margin requirements as a calendar. Similar to a calendar, slightly larger debit, earns $ on the downside....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,698
  • Sep 13, 2024 9:22am Sep 13, 2024 9:22am
Couldn't fight the melt-up. Diagonals came off for $5 and the 1-lot long call hedge got $20.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,699
  • Sep 13, 2024 12:08pm Sep 13, 2024 12:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Eyes on the prize. (I also have a set of 5620/5625/5630, same dates, same goal, but will help if SPX keeps melting up.)
...actually it's 5625/5630/5635, now with SPX at 5628 coming out of the lunch hour, we'll see if this one has a shot at perfection....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #19,700
  • Sep 13, 2024 12:39pm Sep 13, 2024 12:39pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}... we'll see if this one has a shot at perfection....
...the problem with these is always the same - you have to bite the bullet and commit to waiting to the last hour, or even the last 1/4 hr....if you do that, you might be kissing goodbye some of the good unrealized profit of the trade. I usually grab the cash when it looks good, maybe leave a little bit to run for glory...

...this time I gave up the fight agin the melt-up in round 2, took off the 5625/5630 diag for $6.50 and the 5635 long call for $18. And I am flat, pondering trades for the FOMC aftermath...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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