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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,561
  • Jul 18, 2007 12:18am Jul 18, 2007 12:18am
Quoting 59fender
monarch I get 1.0375 as a projected low where are you getting 1.0349?
hey, I did a Monthly Fibo calculation and posted it on post #1520, waiting for that level to show its hand, then wait for a nice retrace for the entry SHORT>

Ken
  • #1,562
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:48am Jul 18, 2007 3:48am
Crazy dollar market overnight. +/- 40pips in USD/CAD (and every other pair) in the past few hours. New multi-decade low on the USDX and nearly every pair, then suddenly reversed. Some major stop running?
  • #1,563
  • Jul 18, 2007 5:55am Jul 18, 2007 5:55am
euro/cad showing a potential double bottom wave four
  • #1,564
  • Edited 6:40am Jul 18, 2007 6:12am | Edited 6:40am
someone or something is selling the cad like crazy... or is it an insider news ?

edit : nevermind it was news driven, i missed this one
  • #1,565
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:40am Jul 18, 2007 6:40am
Quoting melpheos
someone or something is selling the cad like crazy... or is it an insider news ?
No, it's just a reaction to the CPI numbers, plus recent news perhaps of heavy shorting in uranium.
  • #1,566
  • Jul 18, 2007 7:26am Jul 18, 2007 7:26am
kinda bullish formation on 4hrs off strong support
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,567
  • Jul 18, 2007 7:56am Jul 18, 2007 7:56am
hmm hourlies show buy signal... Bad Canadian Data, better US Data... and the pair going down???

can anyone explain? is there another reason why the pair is going south?
  • #1,568
  • Jul 18, 2007 7:59am Jul 18, 2007 7:59am
Quoting Alfa159
hmm hourlies show buy signal... Bad Canadian Data, better US Data... and the pair going down???

can anyone explain? is there another reason why the pair is going south?

Yea they are letting in more shorts before they crush them
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,569
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:01am Jul 18, 2007 8:01am
Quoting OrionsWay
Yea they are letting in more shorts before they crush them

saying logically the pair should go up right? All my trusted signals say that but yet nothing ((
  • #1,570
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:09am Jul 18, 2007 8:09am
Quoting Alfa159
saying logically the pair should go up right? All my trusted signals say that but yet nothing ((
Big trend Alfa lot of setiment for selling, they need to exhaust them if they are truely bullish. They would rather let them exhaust themselves at the bottom of market so they get better buy prices for a big move north if that is the plan they have
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,571
  • Jul 18, 2007 8:33am Jul 18, 2007 8:33am
Quoting OrionsWay
Big trend Alfa lot of setiment for selling, they need to exhaust them if they are truely bullish. They would rather let them exhaust themselves at the bottom of market so they get better buy prices for a big move north if that is the plan they have

I wonder when will people get tired of shorts... Bad Canadian news, good US news couldnt help it, it seems...

I am long at 1.0464 and loosing bad for now... will stop if closes below 1.0423...

Bad trading day for me.
  • #1,572
  • Jul 18, 2007 9:31am Jul 18, 2007 9:31am
Quoting Alfa159
I wonder when will people get tired of shorts... Bad Canadian news, good US news couldnt help it, it seems...

I am long at 1.0464 and loosing bad for now... will stop if closes below 1.0423...

Bad trading day for me.
Sorry to hear it & I hope you can get out intact, one way or another.
But something to keep in mind is that USD/CAD has been in a major downtrend for 5 years, without more than a 10% retrace at any given time (from over 1.60 to current levels). That means roughly it has to move up almost 600 pips to even think about a trend reversal; and before that happens it will most likely oscillate in a band of roughly that amount for quite awhile. In my ballpark mode (i.e. nothing rigourous) it means that while the downside is still open for the pair, shooting for more than maybe 10% up within the band - i.e. 60 pips on a long - is still quite risky, and the better bet is to be patient and wait for good shorts.
  • #1,573
  • Jul 18, 2007 11:07am Jul 18, 2007 11:07am
Today it was a bad day for me on USDCAD as well. News slapped my trail stop order just to run once again in my direction immediately after. I scored an overall +11 pips on USDCAD today on a position that looked very nicely at the beginning for a triple figure in pips. I hope you guys had more luck than me today.
  • #1,574
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:58pm Jul 18, 2007 1:58pm
Usd/Cad ........... Now see this .....

Hmmm ?...........What do we have here ? ......http://www.fxsurfer.com/forums/images/smilies/smile.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-18-2007-#1.jpg Size: 53 KB
  • #1,575
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:42pm Jul 18, 2007 2:42pm
i am short at 1.0449... Any suggestions?

good luck to all traders...
  • #1,576
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:46pm Jul 18, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting Alfa159
i am short at 1.0449... Any suggestions?

good luck to all traders...
I'm looking for a short term bounce and then down to 1.0393 before testing 1.0300
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,577
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:51pm Jul 18, 2007 2:51pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I'm looking for a short term bounce and then down to 1.0393 before testing 1.0300
bounce towards 1.0478? or even higher??? any forecasts you made? Because I was thinking of waiting a while cause the pair might hit that level but than I realized the pair might have hard time breaking 1.0451 level so i went short.
  • #1,578
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:58pm Jul 18, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting Alfa159
bounce towards 1.0478? or even higher??? any forecasts you made? Because I was thinking of waiting a while cause the pair might hit that level but than I realized the pair might have hard time breaking 1.0451 level so i went short.
The Cad data has been negative, but the USD data has been iffy at best and subprime's still a problem. Long term trend is down, but I see a move towards 1.0500 and then down from there. We haven't tested 1.0393 yet.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #1,579
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:04pm Jul 18, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting DutchTrader
The Cad data has been negative, but the USD data has been iffy at best and subprime's still a problem. Long term trend is down, but I see a move towards 1.0500 and then down from there. We haven't tested 1.0393 yet.
yes very reasonable... Since there is a resistance at 1.0500 and a fib level as well... The weak CAD data also made me wonder before going into my short trade...

I am kinda suprised though that the downtrend is continuing for a long time... and as you mentioned as well, it will continue to go down, but yeah a correction might take place.
  • #1,580
  • Jul 18, 2007 3:18pm Jul 18, 2007 3:18pm
Quoting Alfa159
yes very reasonable... Since there is a resistance at 1.0500 and a fib level as well... The weak CAD data also made me wonder before going into my short trade...

I am kinda suprised though that the downtrend is continuing for a long time... and as you mentioned as well, it will continue to go down, but yeah a correction might take place.
Right now I'd be flat, because I expect heavy dollar selling in Asia/Europe
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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