Just me trading Elliott wave

I mainly trade with Eliott Wave and volume profile, using CRT (candle range theory) for directional bias. I'm trading a paper account unless otherwise stated.

Enjoy.

Looks like we are in wave 5 up, targeting 108.80 (about 1880 pips).

This will take a long long time to play out.

Volume profile would suggest we need to crack the poc of 93.70, since that is where the majority of trading took place for this time frame.

Zoomed in on the daily, I'm looking for a 5 wave move up to the circle area, then a deep retracement down for a wave 2, before moving up in wave 3.

We need to take out the high of 93 for me to have the most confidence in a bull continuation.

Price breaks a swing high and trades up into what is possibly a completed wave 2 (see 3rd chart below for the count). If this is correct, price will continue its move down in wave 3 over the next few weeks. However, my long trade is based on the likelihood of a bounce before that move lower.

The same chart but with the median lines (forks). Price did break the bullish (blue) media line, which I'm not worried. Price almost always has a deep retracement before a change in direction. The pink lines mark the swing highs and where we expect liquidity to show up. This is where im taking some off the table.



Now with Elliott waves. This is just showing my projection lower than I expect price to take over the coming weeks.


With volume profile, you can see the high volume and low volume areas. The thicker the volume, the stronger the resistance (or support). The 'vah and 'val' are the value area high and value are low. Between these lines is where 70% of all volume happened within this trend. When price is at or below VAL, price is considered cheap, and vise-versa when above VAH.

Usd/chf never gave me the bounce I was looking for. I said it would go lower in wave 3 and it has, but I still think we are due for a bounce.

Price is at the intersecting slopes of the red median line and the black warning lines. This apex, at least in median line theory, should offer support.



When applying the volume profile on the recent wave down, we see the majority of the volume is happening at the lows. This is a good sign for a bullish move because this signals accumulation. The strong RSI divergence also adds to my bullish bias.



As far as Elliott Wave goes, I'm still long term bearish. But this is a multi-week/ month view and I think in the short term we could grab some good pips. If thiss is the bottom of wave 3, then we'd expect a bounce up in wave 4. In EW theory, wave 4 bounces are usualy the 38.2 of wave 3, which is where my first take profit would be.

+63 pips on usd/chf today. Went long on the touch of the 61.8 retrace and put my stops at the structure swing low. Took profits at equilibrium (50% fib) and wanted to aim for the C wave completion but got stopped out before the next push higher. I'll try and get back in.

After the trade above on usd/chf, the rest of May just f--kin sucked!. So I took some time off from posting. Nothing sucks more than having the best trade of the month and give it all back.

Starting back with a 34 pip winner on usd/jpy. I managed to go long into a liquidity sweep and grab some pips before it reversed and took out the low. Entry was the blue dot. I took profits just in time before the next 15m bar flushed. After taking 1/2 off, I moved stop to b/e.

Caught 36 pips on wave C of 5 to complete the A wave diagonal. This was on oct 4th.

AUDUSD

Big moves on news today. Prices crash lower, giving me conviction that we are in the 5th wave down (orange wave). Sub orange wave looks like it wants to play out as an ending diagonal since the move down looks more 3-wave-ish than impulsive.

I'm bullish on finding a way to catch a bounce back into the weekly poc.

USD/CHF




USD/ JPY

Crude

Crude update

pnl this month

usd/jpy. I think this is wave A of 2. Green leading diag just finished so this means higher prices after this pb.

AudUsd breaking from its triangle. Is this a 1,2,1,2 setup?.

Took a small loss on gold starting the week but I think this is all of a leading diag for A. Now we go up in B. Still hunting longs.

Missed the bounce on gold but this looks like an A of B wave. Possible short opportunity before the C of B move higher.

USDJPY in a holding pattern until we get back to value area. No sense in buying in the middle to get chopped.

USDCHF finished wave A of 5 or does it have more to go? This could be 3 of 5 of A.. I may wait and take the short in B.