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  • #261
  • Sep 6, 2024 7:38am Sep 6, 2024 7:38am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! Today we have NFP; key data to make the final call on recession or not. 1- Good data and inline: Good for equities 2- Bad data: Bad for equities.
Mixed bag of data with revision to the downside.
1- Hourly and Unemployment rate are good data for equities
2- Non-farm is bad in comparison to expectation but good in comparison to the revision.
Altogether data do not confirm the recession. Hence I'm inclined to see NQ buyers jump in.
I'll wait for NY opening range to make a decisive call.
  • #262
  • Sep 6, 2024 8:50am Sep 6, 2024 8:50am
Here is my planned entry based on the break and test of NY opening range. be it buy or sell.
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  • #263
  • Sep 6, 2024 9:26am Sep 6, 2024 9:26am
Quoting Fadhl
Here is my planned entry based on the break and test of NY opening range. be it buy or sell. {image}
Looking further in the chart and following today's data, I'm not confident about shorting NQ.
Will wait until I see a H1 body candle closes below the latest green candle. I feel like a sell trap in play.
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  • #264
  • Sep 6, 2024 9:59am Sep 6, 2024 9:59am
Quoting Fadhl
Here is my planned entry based on the break and test of NY opening range. be it buy or sell. {image}
NQ broke the range and did not provide a test of it. Price already went a key level. Will see the reaction...
Empty hands so far!
  • #265
  • Sep 6, 2024 10:02am Sep 6, 2024 10:02am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Looking further in the chart and following today's data, I'm not confident about shorting NQ. Will wait until I see a H1 body candle closes below the latest green candle. I feel like a sell trap in play. {image}
Price closed below that green candle and is around a key level. Will see the reaction around it. I'm tempted to buy around it.
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  • #266
  • Sep 6, 2024 10:12am Sep 6, 2024 10:12am
If stock don't turn now after this speech at 16 gmt, than nothing will, watch out for hourly candle if it doesn't shoot up prepare for bearish weekly close without pullback
  • #267
  • Sep 6, 2024 11:38am Sep 6, 2024 11:38am
I made this Buy entry in Futures
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  • #268
  • Sep 8, 2024 2:40pm Sep 8, 2024 2:40pm
Happy new Week!
Weekly Analysis:
NQ provided a weekly and daily strong bearish close. Very few left to the bottom before a swing up.
The yellow box provides a value area to go long; this area is the monthly and weekly last breakout. also, there is a TL and 72.8 fib.
Early in the week, price might continue down to value area then up.
From FA perspective, US economy is slowing down and recession might be already here. So market is looking for September cut: is it only .25 or .50?
Any upcoming data will be assessed as follow:
1- Bad. red data, FED cut will be .50; For immediate reaction, this is bad for equities; later it will become good for equities because of printing of free money
2- Good, inline, green data, FED will cut .25. For immediate reaction, this is good for equities and even for later as economy is healthy which is good for stocks.
GL!
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  • #269
  • Sep 9, 2024 6:25am Sep 9, 2024 6:25am
Good day!
NQ retraced almost 50% of Friday Candle and created a bearish flag that was broken. I will enter at the retest or exactly at 50% fib. Here is my Sell LMT entry for both spots and futures.
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  • #270
  • Sep 9, 2024 7:29am Sep 9, 2024 7:29am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! NQ retraced almost 50% of Friday Candle and created a bearish flag that was broken. I will enter at the retest or exactly at 50% fib. Here is my Sell LMT entry for both spots and futures. {image} {image}
I jumped in at market price.
  • #271
  • Edited 10:35am Sep 9, 2024 9:00am | Edited 10:35am
Hello all.

Just joined this forum. I was actually looking for a DAX group but could not find one.

Just jumped into Nas a bit late at 18595. Seems I should have held out at the 50% level.

Am hoping DAX will follow suit.
  • #272
  • Sep 10, 2024 6:04am Sep 10, 2024 6:04am
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Still in there....waiting...waiting...

Probably should have cashed in on that first large momentum bar....
  • #273
  • Edited 7:13am Sep 10, 2024 7:01am | Edited 7:13am
Good day!
FYI, I made few changes to my strategy:
1- TF: from 15-30 min to 5-15 min
2- TP: Every 50 points up to previous day high/low or key levels (for more information, go to the first post)
-------------------------------------------------------------
a) Yesterday close provided a full green candle, but it was an inside candle; so it does not mean a bullish direction!
b) Price also retraced up to 61.8 fib. So the main direction is still down.
c) Asian and London sessions were consolidating.
So what should we expect for today?
1- Continuation of consolidation;
2- Test of Friday High or Low Candle
The break will come with tomorrow CPI news.
We will wait for NY opening range to decide which direction we go.
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  • #274
  • Sep 10, 2024 7:47am Sep 10, 2024 7:47am
Quoting sj9bp20
{image} Still in there....waiting...waiting... Probably should have cashed in on that first large momentum bar....
If we are to retain a downward direction we will need a reversal at, or before, the 18842-18850 level
  • #275
  • Sep 10, 2024 8:14am Sep 10, 2024 8:14am
Quoting sj9bp20
{quote} If we are to retain a downward direction we will need a reversal at, or before, the 18842-18850 level
Few FED members will talk today before the blockout; any hint on .25 or .50 will be sufficient for actions.
  • #276
  • Sep 10, 2024 8:37am Sep 10, 2024 8:37am
Here is the plan for today: we need a body candle that closes above or below to the opening range (5min TF) to go Long or Short with the re-test of the opening range.
Same thing for futures.
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  • #277
  • Sep 10, 2024 8:43am Sep 10, 2024 8:43am
Quoting Fadhl
Here is the plan for today: we need a body candle that closes above or below to the opening range (5min TF) to go Long or Short with the re-test of the opening range. Same thing for futures. {image}
Do not sell now with the retest; we need a distanciation from the breakout candle; the immediate green candle is fake.
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  • #278
  • Sep 10, 2024 9:05am Sep 10, 2024 9:05am
NVDA is going short after the opening range; hence NQ should follow. But so far the trigger requirements are not met. I'll wait and update.
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  • #279
  • Sep 10, 2024 9:22am Sep 10, 2024 9:22am
We got the breakout, the distanciation from the breakout, now with the test, you can sell.
Take profit every 50 points, move to BE and leave the rest until the final TP.
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I'm in.
  • #280
  • Sep 10, 2024 9:52am Sep 10, 2024 9:52am
Quoting Fadhl
We got the breakout, the distanciation from the breakout, now with the test, you can sell. Take profit every 50 points, move to BE and leave the rest until the final TP. {image} {image} I'm in.
Taking off some after hitting 50points; moving my STP to BE and leaving the remaining to hit my final TP.
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