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Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market?

  • #361
  • Aug 31, 2024 10:35am Aug 31, 2024 10:35am
Quoting pescador
{quote} oochiwaawaa blabla hahaha By the way: I have been trading with a live account (real money, but only my own) since 2008. Noone can learn trading with monopoly money IMO.
coool so according to u you started post 2000 when the changeover started from reading markets thoroughly to calling up pretty charts n callin it tradin ... got it. btw my reference to play money was bout this = if u use any leverage then you are betting using other peoples money in a capacity that is greater than you can actually carry or !!foreward!! (nice word, maybe familiarize urself with it sometime) or afford, within an environment that is not yours, with tools that arent yours to own or manage or control in any meaningful way with !!borrowers!! who dont make themselves openly known to the general public unless reaaaaaally pushin the question.

btw none of this is made up it is fact n real and u can look it up urself to fact check. but people like u are juuuuust dumb enough to think u can handle all that. so to me all that describes a fantasy role play game. and sorry but its very difficult to keep a straight face when u people say u do !!live tradin!! == as if that is something real or to be respected.

but have no doubt, i know YOU believe you are doin real stuff. like i said you ve walked into a gambling parlor and everythin bout it tries to make u believe its real, ESPECIALLY when you deposit ur !!money!!. so the losers on these sites who say they do !!live tradin!! or use !!live or real!! accounts are kiddin themself. gamblin to pay bills or make money is for the dumb, the daft and the lazy cheats.

now heres the corker == other people are dumb nough to believe em.

so please === tell me again that you do !!live tradin!! when, after lookin at the facts, theres nothin live bout what people do and it only shows peoples ignorance with money. so good times. have fun
protein for breakfast !
  • #362
  • Aug 31, 2024 11:05am Aug 31, 2024 11:05am
heres more blablah that u people believe means nothin ===

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/di...oogle_vignette

so if this site is your headspace U R messed up. if u use !!cfds!! and you dont use somethin as weakness insurance then ur just a gambler. weakness insurance is not a policy of insurance it is a way to !!trade against!! the loss. eg = lose $1 in left hand and gain $2 in right hand. its done by actually learning about fin markets not from websites.

so now lets hear from all those !!traders!! or !!collectors!! or whatever. sounds absurd to even say !!takin a loss!! outfront. i mean, thats ur account. your responsibility.
protein for breakfast !
  • #363
  • Aug 31, 2024 6:34pm Aug 31, 2024 6:34pm
To continue the thesis put forth in Post 305,

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14971855

Especially the highlighted statements of,

it is clearly better to be on the other side of where retail traders think the currency pairs will go.

So, in simple terms, trading against the retail sentiment is the obvious thing to do.

Let's review the past trading week of August 26 to 30.

EURCAD was a big mover, 235 pips, when the AWR (12) is 155 pips, so 152% of an average week.

The data shows, on Monday start of trading, that 90% of retail traders were Short on this pair, hence the theory is to be Long on this pair.

Let's go to the chart, a win for retail traders by the look of it, 201.7 pips by my figures + Excel, but a loss for the contrarian theory of going opposite to retail, so far.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-09-01_9-02-21.jpg Size: 171 KB


One trade doesn't prove, or disprove, the thesis, enter the Weekly Open and Close for each pair, according to the Sentiment. EURCAD highlight so you can check the price data easily.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-09-01_9-09-39.jpg Size: 245 KB


Note: #1 to 18 shows that Retail Sentiment is Short on these pairs, so the trader should Long, result is +132.5 pips.

Note: #19 to 28 shows that Retail Sentiment is Long on these pairs, so the trader should Short, result is +507.7 pips.

For a total of 640.2 and this week is a win for the theory of trading opposite the sentiment.

Obviously, pips are not the be all and end all of measurement, only it's the easiest to do the math on right now. If you have any complaints or suggestions, feel free to comment.

Also, if you notice any mistakes, in the math, data entry, direction, please comment, along with your opinion on the main thesis, it always makes for interesting discussion.

Bonus EURNZD chart of the best Short trade, retail sentiment was 81% Long at the start of the week, so the trader will be Short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2024-09-01_9-30-24.jpg Size: 168 KB



Let's prepare for the new week, what PROFITS will Retail Sentiment bring!!!

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #364
  • Aug 31, 2024 8:54pm Aug 31, 2024 8:54pm
More explanation of the theory of how and why to trade using Retail Sentiment

Inserted Video
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #365
  • Sep 1, 2024 12:41am Sep 1, 2024 12:41am
Quoting Erebus
More explanation of the theory of how and why to trade using Retail Sentiment https://youtu.be/N6ntIFhzqMo?si=sv6QETLjbUeDckHu
..... oh shit .... .... sorry i laughed too hard

AND PEOPLE actually fall for this stuff ??????????????
protein for breakfast !
  • #366
  • Sep 1, 2024 12:42am Sep 1, 2024 12:42am
Quoting Erebus
To continue the thesis put forth in Post 305, https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14971855 Especially the highlighted statements of, it is clearly better to be on the other side of where retail traders think the currency pairs will go. So, in simple terms, trading against the retail sentiment is the obvious thing to do. Let's review the past trading week of August 26 to 30. EURCAD was a big mover, 235 pips, when the AWR (12) is 155 pips, so 152% of an average week. The data shows, on Monday start of trading, that 90%...
cooooool maaaaaan === now prove it. great theory, luuuuuuv seeing it alllll over da youtube === now prove it. FASCINATING that the true fundamentals are overlooked. this is why i say ==== prove it. all this is like saying !!the horse has a 300:1 chance of winning so THAT is my pick for race day!!

a 98% loser does not equate to doing anything contrary its already done UNLESS something fundamental has changed. HAS something fundamental changed erebus ?

so another one who didnt bother to read the sign on the front door as they walked into the world o parlor tricks n info overload.
protein for breakfast !
  • #367
  • Sep 1, 2024 1:15am Sep 1, 2024 1:15am
anyone round here actually work at a bank or equiv institution who deals with money lending or currency floats or client acquisitions or management or maybe even just a credit union or somethin?? someone? ANYONE ??

no didnt think so.

heres a real easy way to see how a currency dept at a bank etc works = we outlay money (either our own OR someone elses) .... you ready .... to get BACK more money, either immediately or in the future. shamefully obvious right.

https://www.google.com/search?q=do+b...hrome&ie=UTF-8

somethin i find reaaaaaly intresting is all u people who trade usin retail orderflow or temp order discharge data. OOOH wait whats that? from a retail view its a breach of personal data. just coz ur name aint on the data dont mean its technically legal OR ethical. some loopholes exist but u gotta wonder = if ur willin to cross that line what OTHER LINES r u willin to cross?

besides all u !!traders!! who use OD or todd have just showed ur hand. youve been baited into believin that the extra info is !!special!! n now u have an !!eeeeedge!!. omg time.

remember this===

read it. its ya basic formal disclaimer 4 all dis stuff.

https://tradersfamily.id/risk-disclaimer/

da problem with gamblers is ya common sense turns off when you think youll get a fix for ur addiction. real business tradin has nothin to do with that disclaimer. why not? firstly its there to remind you dat !!if you think n act like a schmuck then you believe in profit knowledge over risk knowledge and when more than 1% of factual information is withheld from you in this entire process known as tradin $$$ markets, the significance of loss increases exponentially!!. thats a FACT. this is what you need to focus on .. not ur usual !!95% or whatever of traders lose money!! ... here u go percador ... heres ur blah blah blah.

so keep it comin. all da usual garbage. but never anythin bout risk anomoly knowledge or risk constitution knowledge. eg = there are more than 10 types o risk that can forgo a person in their life re $$$ markets. if this is news to you then think on this = if u aint got any $$ then u cant trade. profits dont stop this.

i also reckon its funny coz cfd tradin is closer to a good ol ponzi scheme hhhmmm i mean multi level marketing oh shit sorry .... hhhmmm i mean to say !!network marketing business opportunity!!

gotta luv how website members (especially da !!experienced ones!!) seem to forget all these things. tradin aint a gamble when done well.
protein for breakfast !
  • #368
  • Sep 1, 2024 2:15am Sep 1, 2024 2:15am
Quoting oochiwaawaa
gotta luv how website members (especially da !!experienced ones!!) seem to forget all these things. tradin aint a gamble when done well.
It's possible that if one could understand the ramblings of your posts, that there may be something there to do with the topic of Retail Sentiment, but I doubt it very much.

As well as failing that, there seems to be a sad lack of comprehension, absolutely nothing to contribute, and very low respect to this forum in general.

Have a good day.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #369
  • Sep 1, 2024 11:06am Sep 1, 2024 11:06am
Why are most Retail Traders on the Wrong Side?

Thre's an easy answer to this question which is backed up by years of data. This data also proves using market sentiment to trade is a stupid way of searching for winning trades. In fact if it was so good, brokers wouldn't release this data to the trading community.

In general Retail traders choose the correct side of a trade in about 63% of opening positions so they are pretty good at reading charts truth being known.
What they are bad at is holding on to a position when they in profit (somewhere around 43 pips per winning trade) so they cut their profits too quickly. However they love holding on to losing positions because they hate closing trades for a loss which averages somewhere around 78 pips per position.

Therefore when we see Market sentiment on a big trend is moving against retail positions, we are only viewing these losing traders that are watching their equity heading towards margin calls.

WE ARE WATCHING RETAIL IDIOTS TOO FEARFUL TO CLOSE THEIR LOSING POSITIONS BECAUSE THEY CAN'T FACE TAKING A LOSS

The 63% of winning traders are long gone, the losing traders are also adding to their positions as well hoping for a miracle to occur out of desperation.

Therefore all we are viewing is normal retail behavior on a strong trend - and perhaps too late to join the trend now normally.

PS.. Don't think professional traders have a higher win rate, they don't. They just learned to take losses quicker.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #370
  • Sep 1, 2024 3:20pm Sep 1, 2024 3:20pm
Various reasons, but not to sound pessimistic, I just call it as I see it .

Two big main reasons:
1. Retail traders are at an information & tech disadvantage. Think of HFT guys and PHD grads in the game. Imagine a card game where I can see your cards but you can’t see mine, or a race where you ride a tortoise and I a Ferrari? I’ll obviously win every time. Add to that, retailers get a lot of disinformation (youtube, bloggers etc), a lot of them mean well, but you learn all the sweet wrong moves to lose the game long-term.

2. Retailers are undercapitalised and trade under bad conditions (leverage, bad spreads, slips, swaps etc). The big trader gets favourable execution, doesn’t need leverage and can afford to hold for longer until the market turns in his favour. Small-time guys can not.
  • #371
  • Sep 1, 2024 3:21pm Sep 1, 2024 3:21pm
Quoting RickM
Why are most Retail Traders on the Wrong Side? Thre's an easy answer to this question which is backed up by years of data. This data also proves using market sentiment to trade is a stupid way of searching for winning trades. In fact if it was so good, brokers wouldn't release this data to the trading community. In general Retail traders choose the correct side of a trade in about 63% of opening positions so they are pretty good at reading charts truth being known. What they are bad at is holding on to a position when they in profit (somewhere around...
Maybe I read it wrong, I'm still on my 1st coffee, but your premise is that it is a stupid way to find trades, and then explained why it works.

It's a good day so far I agree with the being right in direction but wrong for execution, that has been much of my trade experience.

Anyway, I presented data from only 1 week, certainly not enough to prove anything, but still of interest to some.

Think about it, either the base theory will be right, or it just won't be useful, either way, I learn something for myself and sharing it, thanks!

I've already said that pips are not the best way to tally a score; I'm only researching to see if Sentiment can be used as a GUIDE, then along with price action, profit trades might be possible.

PS: Win rate has nothing to do with anything. Say a system has 99 winners, and only 1 loser; that implies there is profit, but is there?
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #372
  • Sep 1, 2024 5:53pm Sep 1, 2024 5:53pm
Quoting RickM
Why are most Retail Traders on the Wrong Side? Thre's an easy answer to this question which is backed up by years of data. This data also proves using market sentiment to trade is a stupid way of searching for winning trades. In fact if it was so good, brokers wouldn't release this data to the trading community. In general Retail traders choose the correct side of a trade in about 63% of opening positions so they are pretty good at reading charts truth being known. What they are bad at is holding on to a position when they in profit (somewhere around...
Hi Rick,
Couldn't have said it better myself ! I know exactly the data you are referring too.... David Rodriguez from FXCM analyzed approx 75 million live trades.
Pretty good data set eh 75 million live trades...Anyone with an IQ above 50 that should grab your attention if your a trader... Data from 75 million trades
if you didnt read it the first time.
But hey I get it...Some whom are not profitable and read the link will think,,,,, Hey thats not me ! mmm take a good long
hard look in the mirror and therein lies your problems.

Here's a link :
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...special_report

I've referred to this study myself over the years here. And I highly recommend one reads the above article from David Rodriguez. He makes some great points.
Love your last line Rick and may I add one more aspect to that,,,Yes professionals are good at cutting the losses....but they are also good at sizing their best set ups or pressing the winners... First trick is get good at knowing when to cut your losses quick..Second trick is learning to size up and carving a chunk out...again and again and again.

Anyways great post Rick...I read it and thought hell ya!

Cheers
Blue

PS: BtW I agree with everything Rick said
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #373
  • Sep 1, 2024 8:22pm Sep 1, 2024 8:22pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} PS: Win rate has nothing to do with anything. Say a system has 99 winners, and only 1 loser; that implies there is profit, but is there?
Hi Erebus, the gain to pain ratio and profit factor would be more useful perhaps, over time.
The wonderful Mr Peter Brandt explains it better than I can. https://www.peterlbrandt.com/metrics-that-matter/
Cheers.
  • #374
  • Sep 1, 2024 8:54pm Sep 1, 2024 8:54pm
because they fundementally do not understand that a pip is 100/cent
"The Rich Never Pay Retail"
  • #375
  • Sep 1, 2024 10:21pm Sep 1, 2024 10:21pm
coooool !! MORE here-to BS bout !!trading!! comin up.

you want REAL comprehension = try a bite of this ===

IF you have enough money to capitalize your brokerage account why the FUCK would you take that $$$ and shift your efforts to the LEAST favorable sub base marketplace IN THE WORLD ? Big ego or just plain fuckin stupid? YES a REAL question. maybe you !!rartionalized the costs!! in some cute lil comparison you did on your spreadsheet but thats not real.

Next, people who value their account and their capital dont just !!let the market give em profits!! they go after it. they get creative. not this two bit website crap. heres an eg = you place trade order with usd as collateral for a BIGGER trade order you placed on the EUR while lining up your (other asset class orders as a foreward stop n refill process). Like i have said = lose $1 to be replaced with $2 somewhere else. Its sometimes called multi-stepping. if you use the correct class at a reasonable time of the year, your stepped gains far exceed your !!losses!!. you people think one dimensionally THATS the problem. you toy with your trading your're not serious by any measure. you gamble then think you're smart or clever.

anyone seen that 1st Blade film? at the start when the people are in or entering into the basement type night club or whatever it was, then it turns out it was a trap all along. now use that same idea with cfd's.

IF YOU HAVE ENOUGH MONEY you don't need to trade cfds. the risk constitution is FAR TOO HIGH when assessed against other asset classes. so dumbasses who justify their cfd tradin based on cost are blinded by the marketed potential and NOT the actual capable results.

so while people online here think i say ramblings, i sit here and know you talk out your ass coz you're not seeing the game.

THE WORST thing a person can do is view a market's status with only one chart view.

and ofc you would agree with them, you dont know much about the markets.

you take all !!that!! and go talk to someone who DOESN'T spend all their time with cfd's and website BS. You'll be laughed out the door coz you're showing u know next to nothing. done lil or no research n justify dumb decisions.

just to set the record straight = people who do more than spec on movements actually have very high !!win rates!! but they don't use your language. they use risk as a strength not a weakness. you can either learn this n show there's still a few braincells left or continue to listen to fabios online.

luuuv it when dumb is thought to be smart. and is applauded and congratulated. (glad i invested in stell cell research yrs ago)

well maybe some with learn but i reckon many will continue trying to suck their own dicks and keep falling off the couch and wonder !!why?? Oh why cant I do this??!!.

you need gumption to do this stuff not sandpit ideas. have fun
protein for breakfast !
  • #376
  • Sep 1, 2024 10:44pm Sep 1, 2024 10:44pm
retailers create their own self induced bottle necks.

why would you listen to anything a broker tells you or !!explains!! or designates as !!real!! or useful ? if they told you that if you give them a blow job you'll become smarter, would you follow ?

why would you ask addicts how to !!not be an addict but perform better than an addict while being an addict AND still living in the stash house?!! OOOOOH i get it = you don't see yourself that way hah. ok.

really .... and how many professionals do we know ?? how do you define a professional ?? is it written on their business card? on their forehead ? on their accounts balance sheets ? OOOOOOH i know ...... it was on the youtube !!!! MUST be real and true hah

once all !!this!! actually starts talkin about real things THEN the respect will follow .... not before.

i know a guy who trades a single stock. does about 5-10 points (or lets say pips for you fx people) after clearing costs etc everyday. has done for years. that amt everyday 5 days a week 4 weeks a month etc etc. he's independently well off with family. kinda puts all the BS on these sites to shame coz win rate has nothing AT ALL to do with fuckin rubbish retailers think is SOOOOO important. RR win rate risk to ruin yak yak. too dumb too greedy too short in view to see whats there.

heres a tip to any would be trader = conclude right now all these people are flat out wrong and try seeing that your ruinous risk is this = accepting the rules of the game but thinking your !!special!! and can change the rules coz you say so. reaally stupid people never learn this. round n round they go. money is made when you insure it is made not by specualting. have fun
protein for breakfast !
  • #377
  • Sep 2, 2024 5:27am Sep 2, 2024 5:27am
Quoting Davidee
One question that's often asked a lot is why do 95% of traders (or whatever the statistic is) lose? The answers usually range from anything to bad money management to cutting winners and letting losers run. One thing I don't hear about is that most retail forex traders are on the wrong side of the market. If you look at the forex sentiment indexes published by the likes of OandA and dailyfx.com which publishes it's 'SSI' it appears that most retail for traders are almost always on the wrong side of the larger trend. Why is this? What are your ideas?...
Even against the crowd won't increase your winning rate because on average their win rate is 50%, bad risk and money management just amplifies losses due to the tendency to cut profits short and keeping losses as long as possible.
  • #378
  • Sep 2, 2024 5:42am Sep 2, 2024 5:42am
And so to update inline with this thread's topic ====

simple = take all the people that posted on here and the people who gave a thumbs up or down and now create a list of those people so you can start to see what is the same about them. easy one = they say n show the same things over n over without discussing the fact that the central balance of business or trading anything is based on the understanding that is is related to something real. so if you now look at cfd trading and dig coins n all those things, its all just for gamblers. dumb daft self expressing run o the mill gamblers. you find the same thing in other gambling types.

i reckon its TRULY A CLASSIC bellylaugh to see poeple sooooo into it, soooo serious or determined etc. now youve got lots o people believin that fake is real and real is fake. So how fuckin stupid would someone be?

brokers set the terms for cfds not the general market. look it up. hhhmmm actually the current politically correct term is !!decentralized!!

l luuuv this one === !!im as dumb as nails but i gooooot money!!!!
protein for breakfast !
  • #379
  • Sep 2, 2024 5:44am Sep 2, 2024 5:44am
Quoting pizd0s
{quote} Even against the crowd won't increase your winning rate because on average their win rate is 50%, bad risk and money management just amplifies losses due to the tendency to cut profits short and keeping losses as long as possible.
coooool = prove it
protein for breakfast !
  • #380
  • Sep 2, 2024 12:05pm Sep 2, 2024 12:05pm
Quoting oochiwaawaa
retailers create their own self induced bottle necks. why would you listen to anything a broker tells you or !!explains!! or designates as !!real!! or useful ? if they told you that if you give them a blow job you'll become smarter, would you follow ? why would you ask addicts how to !!not be an addict but perform better than an addict while being an addict AND still living in the stash house?!! OOOOOH i get it = you don't see yourself that way hah. ok. really .... and how many professionals do we know ?? how do you define a professional ?? is it...
You're hinting that brokers make retailers lose money on purpose.
Wealthy
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