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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,541
  • Jul 17, 2007 4:17am Jul 17, 2007 4:17am
Quoting WTB
Double bottom level breakout in momentum (long red bar) in the direction of the trend (Moving Averages in order and pointing down) with posterior pullback to retest breakout levels. If new lows are made below 1.0415, the downtrend is still in play and strong from a T.A. point of view.

+ the 1.0455 is also 38.2% fib level from the downward move from 13/07-16/07
  • #1,542
  • Jul 17, 2007 4:35am Jul 17, 2007 4:35am
Entered a short @ 1.0455
  • #1,543
  • Jul 17, 2007 4:42am Jul 17, 2007 4:42am
Quoting Sidus
Entered a short @ 1.0455
good choice! although I think it might go up more...I think the US might have some good PPI results but have everything else end up with bad news
  • #1,544
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:01am Jul 17, 2007 5:01am
Usd/Cad
-----------------------------------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-17-2007-#3.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #1,545
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:12am Jul 17, 2007 5:12am
I have not traded the USD/CAD, but have been watching it since December of 06.

Thanks everyone for your input, it helps me to get a greater understanding of what this pair is doing.

I have no plans of going Long on this, but I have thoughts of entering Shorts at every Fibo retrace areas, will be watching teh 1.0513 50% for now, and possibly up to 1.0536 for a Short Entry.

I have plans on entering at each Fibo retrace level with 1 lot, and keeping it in for a long period of time, expecting more downward movement to happen the remainder of this year and next.

Thanks all.
  • #1,546
  • Jul 17, 2007 1:05pm Jul 17, 2007 1:05pm
And yet another sideways day...amazing...
  • #1,547
  • Jul 17, 2007 1:20pm Jul 17, 2007 1:20pm
Patience is key!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,548
  • Jul 17, 2007 1:28pm Jul 17, 2007 1:28pm
The good news is both EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD are trending nicely off their June lows and are both flirting with their 50-day SMAs. USD/CAD won't find similar traction while the USDX is hugging the 80-level. GBP/CAD is especially strong and may be a better pair to play if CAD weakens further (it also has the highest swap).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD.PNG Size: 10 KB
  • #1,549
  • Jul 17, 2007 1:38pm Jul 17, 2007 1:38pm
I don't believe in interest/swap so my accounts don't have that. Well I hope U/CAD goes up to around 1.05 then drop back down again
  • #1,550
  • Jul 17, 2007 1:48pm Jul 17, 2007 1:48pm
Quoting MoForce
I don't believe in interest/swap
Whether or not you believe in it, interest rates are a driving force in the FX world.

Quote
so my accounts don't have that.
The only no-swap brokers I've heard of don't pay interest on positive swap, but also charge interest on negative swap. In other words, they're a total scam. You might want to double check your broker arrangement.
  • #1,551
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:00pm Jul 17, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting MoForce
I don't believe in interest/swap so my accounts don't have that. Well I hope U/CAD goes up to around 1.05 then drop back down again

It very well may do that.

I'm hoping so.
  • #1,552
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:06pm Jul 17, 2007 2:06pm
lol US markets broke yet another record...DOW broke 14,000
  • #1,553
  • Jul 17, 2007 7:29pm Jul 17, 2007 7:29pm
We are near the low of 1.0428, yesterdays candle closed at 1.0437, and today were looking for a test of the low at 1.0415.

I am expecting the continuation downward to 1.0349 for the actual support where will see the Fibo retrace start moving upwards.

Then the retrace will offer great opportunities for new shorts around 1.0480 and 1.0510 levels.

For now I will be watching for a break below the 1.0415 low.
  • #1,554
  • Jul 17, 2007 10:47pm Jul 17, 2007 10:47pm
Emerging patterns
Currency Pair Interval Time (EST) Pattern Direction Trend Length Quality USDCAD 15 Jul 17, 23:30 Falling Wedge http://www.fxstreet.com/images/down.gif Continuation 525 0.546417 USDCAD 15 Jul 17, 23:30 Falling Wedge http://www.fxstreet.com/images/down.gif Reversal 591 0.862133

In all my time looking at these paterns in the past...those with a 0.75-1 quality always came true for the most part...so what does this mean? Well this is showing a length of 525-591! Thats how much the expected fall in pips from now is! That brings us to about 0.9900... So I guess we'll just see what happens. I'll be going short
  • #1,555
  • Jul 17, 2007 10:55pm Jul 17, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting Trader KGB
The only no-swap brokers I've heard of don't pay interest on positive swap, but also charge interest on negative swap. In other words, they're a total scam. You might want to double check your broker arrangement.
The swap free broker (marketiva) I traded back in January is a scam. They only wanted me to hold swap positive positions (long USDJPY) and threaten to close my account for holding swap negative positions (short GBPJPY).
  • #1,556
  • Jul 17, 2007 10:57pm Jul 17, 2007 10:57pm
Quoting MoForce
lol US markets broke yet another record...DOW broke 14,000
Seems to me that US investors cannot afford to invest overseas (FTSE or DAX, etc...) due to weakening of the USD and dumped their USD in US companies...
  • #1,557
  • Jul 17, 2007 11:06pm Jul 17, 2007 11:06pm
Quoting BurgerKing
The swap free broker (marketiva) I traded back in January is a scam. They only wanted me to hold swap positive positions (long USDJPY) and threaten to close my account for holding swap negative positions (short GBPJPY).
Yeah Marketiva isn't very good. They made a lot of people lose a lot of money in less than a day when their charts lagged and no one could change any orders
  • #1,558
  • Jul 17, 2007 11:07pm Jul 17, 2007 11:07pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Seems to me that US investors cannot afford to invest overseas (FTSE or DAX, etc...) due to weakening of the USD and dumped their USD in US companies...
LMAO that could be true!
  • #1,559
  • Jul 17, 2007 11:55pm Jul 17, 2007 11:55pm
Price testing the Low here at 1.0414, lets see if it holds support here or pushes deeper to the 1.0349 area of support.

Waiting now for a retrace upward for a SHORT entry.


Fibo projection based on a High at 1.0610 and low at 1.0349
38.2 1.0449
50 1.0480
61.8 1.0510
76.4 1.0549
  • #1,560
  • Jul 18, 2007 12:08am Jul 18, 2007 12:08am
Quoting monarch
Price testing the Low here at 1.0414, lets see if it holds support here or pushes deeper to the 1.0349 area of support.

Waiting now for a retrace upward for a SHORT entry.


Fibo projection based on a High at 1.0610 and low at 1.0349
38.2 1.0449
50 1.0480
61.8 1.0510
76.4 1.0549
monarch I get 1.0375 as a projected low where are you getting 1.0349?
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