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daily range Strategy

  • #521
  • Nov 29, 2006 1:06pm Nov 29, 2006 1:06pm
Hi Mark,

thanks for your reply.

The indicator you kindly posted is not what I had in mind.

Basically what I need is the same as the high/low indicator, but only indication of (via horisontial lines) the high/low of the previous daily candle BODY.

Hope this is possible.

FT

Quoting Markj
FingoTrader,

The Pattern recognition, is this the one you after? if so here it is

Cheers
  • #522
  • Nov 29, 2006 3:33pm Nov 29, 2006 3:33pm
can anyone recommend a good forex broker with a gbp/usd spread of 3 pips or less. i currently use FXCM and they suck big time.

mr detroit
  • #523
  • Nov 30, 2006 7:16am Nov 30, 2006 7:16am
I've been following the post and find interest in this trading method. I have been having success using gbp/jpy along with a 50/50 straddle put in at 0000gmt with gbp/usd.. i use a 50/50 with it as well 30 limit/stop.. also have been testing with a 20ts and 70 limit.. the gbp/jpy does seem to move more directly up or down than gbp/usd.. the spread of course is more.. im just demo with it for now but it is a fast mover.
  • #524
  • Edited 9:31am Nov 30, 2006 9:07am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting fingotrader
...Basically what I need is the same as the high/low indicator, but only indication of (via horisontial lines) the high/low of the daily candle BODY.
Hope this is possible.
FT
Hi FT, i just hacked into one of my indicators and added the prior day's close (yellow line). You can download the indicator here. In order to keep the code simple and clean i did not put the prior day's open, only it's close. You can easily see where the prior closes were with the Yellow line and extend the line yourself manualy for a good visual of the candle's Open/Close, or it's "Body". Also the day's high, low, and median is there. Hope this helps in your pippage. In the below image i have the indicator shifted 1 day. So the levels you see are the HLCM of yesterday. I placed two orange DASHed lines to indicate yesterday's close, and the day before yesterday. This would indicate the area of yesterday's "Body" with a bit of manual elbow grease...but it never hurts to get a bit dirty with placing some manual lines and getting involved with the chart in my book.

Cheers,
Thom

http://accrete.com/fx-atm/indicators...levels-pix.png
  • #525
  • Nov 30, 2006 11:15am Nov 30, 2006 11:15am
Just wanted to post a further update on my modified Kamanda system.

Been trading this since Nov7.

I trade two units. Take profit at 25 pips on the first and 50 on the second. If the second hasn't closed by around 9 AM EST I close it whatever.

Trigger is now 54 long and 40 short. SL is 50 long and 40 short. Using the 5 PM EST open (or close however you look at it). I deleted all of the cancelled trades that weren't triggered.

I call it karamba just for fun.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip karamba_nov30.zip   5 KB | 603 downloads
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #526
  • Nov 30, 2006 7:53pm Nov 30, 2006 7:53pm
Quoting drlc01
permanentjaun,

it seems that Kamanda was doing the OCO order so one trade based on previous day closed (5PM EST). Although the setup is of course one long and one short.

Seems like an easy setup and he claims with high resulting PIPs.

Thanks,
Eric
Kamanda claimed to have made a million with this technique..( peaks everyones interest), however, he would double up and reverse if his stop was hit. Wonder what his results would be without doing that..
  • #527
  • Dec 1, 2006 6:46am Dec 1, 2006 6:46am
Accrete,

thank's a million , I will try it out asap.

FT

Quoting accrete
Hi FT, i just hacked into one of my indicators and added the prior day's close (yellow line). You can download the indicator here. In order to keep the code simple and clean i did not put the prior day's open, only it's close. You can easily see where the prior closes were with the Yellow line and extend the line yourself manualy for a good visual of the candle's Open/Close, or it's "Body". Also the day's high, low, and median is there. Hope this helps in your pippage. In the below image i have the indicator shifted 1 day. So the levels you see are the HLCM of yesterday. I placed two orange DASHed lines to indicate yesterday's close, and the day before yesterday. This would indicate the area of yesterday's "Body" with a bit of manual elbow grease...but it never hurts to get a bit dirty with placing some manual lines and getting involved with the chart in my book.

Cheers,
Thom

http://accrete.com/fx-atm/indicators...levels-pix.png
  • #528
  • Dec 1, 2006 7:14am Dec 1, 2006 7:14am
Quoting traderone
Just wanted to post a further update on my modified Kamanda system.

Been trading this since Nov7.

I trade two units. Take profit at 25 pips on the first and 50 on the second. If the second hasn't closed by around 9 AM EST I close it whatever.

Trigger is now 54 long and 40 short. SL is 50 long and 40 short. Using the 5 PM EST open (or close however you look at it). I deleted all of the cancelled trades that weren't triggered.

I call it karamba just for fun.
Traderone: Why did you change the triggers and the stop loss levels from the original kamanda? Also, I guess you do not double-up and reverse on a stop-loss?
  • #529
  • Dec 1, 2006 8:36am Dec 1, 2006 8:36am
Quoting traderone
Just wanted to post a further update on my modified Kamanda system.

Been trading this since Nov7.

I trade two units. Take profit at 25 pips on the first and 50 on the second. If the second hasn't closed by around 9 AM EST I close it whatever.

Trigger is now 54 long and 40 short. SL is 50 long and 40 short. Using the 5 PM EST open (or close however you look at it). I deleted all of the cancelled trades that weren't triggered.

I call it karamba just for fun.
The results are really encouraging.

I'll try this strategy during December and see how it goes. What I really like in this strategy is the emotionless way of trading. Having a full time job this strategy suits my trading approach.

Thanks traderone for the update.
  • #530
  • Dec 1, 2006 1:30pm Dec 1, 2006 1:30pm
Thanks Justin.

I slightly modified Kamanda's settings just to suit me personally. I like the long trigger of 50 + 4 pips for my spread. Changed the short trigger to 40 instead of 35, and I may change it again to 50 in the future.

I would have won more pips today if I had NO stop loss at all, but I'm not willing to go there.

I agree that this is an emotionless way to trade. I think the summer months may not be profitable (low movement). I don't "double up" or anything at this point because here in the USA basically I set my trades before I go to bed and then around the New York open when I wake up I check to see how the night went.

By the way, I am demoing on another account the Micardo method of range trading. It has been even a little better than Karamba. Check out his posts for his settings.
Don Life is expensive, but includes a free trip around the sun.
  • #531
  • Dec 1, 2006 4:28pm Dec 1, 2006 4:28pm
last week saw some good volatility in the market.. mostly bad for the dollar but with this type of trading, movement is movement.. i too am setting up the same straddles with gbp/usd.. i mentioned before the gbp/jpy straddle,..last week over 200 pips doing a 50/50 straddle with a 30 net stop and a 75 limit with 20ts..gbp/jpy has finally come out of a 50 pip range..i will stay with the various straddles with gbp/usd also..all trades go in at 00 00 gmt
  • #532
  • Dec 2, 2006 6:09pm Dec 2, 2006 6:09pm
Here is some information on how many times the pound dollars hits these fib points. This may help on your break out strategy.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 506pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=674 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=5 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 65pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3145" width=86><COL style="WIDTH: 57pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2779" width=76><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=21></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 65pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=86></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 153pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" width=204 colSpan=3>Fib Retracements</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>23.6</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>38.2</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>50</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>61.8</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=21></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=6 height=21>Number of Days This Year The Market Has Been Open</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>240</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>240</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>240</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>240</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=6 height=21>Number Of Days Retraced To These Fib Levels</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>228</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>195</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>166</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>136</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=6 height=21>Average Time Retraced Retraced To The Fib Levels</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="00.95">95.0%</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.8125">81.3%</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.69166666666666665">69.2%</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.56666666666666665">56.7%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=4 height=21>Number of Days Over 100 Pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>175</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=4 height=21>Number of Days Over 200 Pips</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>34</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=6 height=21>Retracements To These Fibs After 200 pip Day</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>27</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>15</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>13</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>8</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt" height=21><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=6 height=21>Average Time Retraced to this level After 200 pip Day</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.81818181818181823">0.818</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.45454545454545453">0.455</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.39393939393939392">0.394</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.24242424242424243">0.242</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  • #533
  • Dec 2, 2006 6:17pm Dec 2, 2006 6:17pm
As you can see the pound dollar after a 200 pip run has already retraced to the 23.6 fib level and a little more then half way to the 38.2 fib level and now has began to rise away from it. The frequencey of it hitting the 38.2 is about .455% of the time. So more then likely it will stay above that level. It seems like everyone has accepted the fact that it will rise to 2.000 so there appears to be no psychological barrier there. It appears that way.
Attached Image
  • #534
  • Dec 2, 2006 6:20pm Dec 2, 2006 6:20pm
Below is some information in regards to what the pound does in comparison to the dollar in the month of December. Hope this helps.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

This information came from the cable update thread post #240 on page 16.<o></o>

British pound – US Dollar (GBP/USD)

The sterling appreciated against the U.S. dollar in the month of December, 14 out of the past 20 years times which is roughly 70 percent of the total sample. Like the EUR/USD, the seasonality factor was stronger in the last 10 years with the GBP/USD appreciating 8 years out of the last 10 samples. On average, the GBP/USD gained 2.37 percent during the positive months and lost only 1.15 percent during the negative months.<o></o>

<o></o>

GBP/USD closed on Nov. 30 1.9653. A 2.37 gain is 466 pips which would be 2.0119. A 1.15 loss would be 226 pips to finish the year 1.9327.<o></o>

<o></o>



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__________________
Emotions And Money Don't Mix <o></o>
  • #535
  • Dec 3, 2006 2:13am Dec 3, 2006 2:13am
This may help in planning your break out strategy. This is the average movement between the high and low of the pound dollar for each 1hr time frame.


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 98pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=131 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 50pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2450" width=67><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 25.5pt" height=34><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 25.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=34>Eastern Time US</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 50pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=67>Average Pip Movement between high and low</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.75">18:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.5E-3">0.0015</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.79166666666666696">19:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.4742857142857105E-3">0.0015</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.83333333333333304">20:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.8409523809523706E-3">0.0018</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.875">21:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.7180952380952412E-3">0.0017</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.91666666666666696">22:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.3457142857142771E-3">0.0013</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="0.95833333333333304">23:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.3533333333333344E-3">0.0014</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1">0:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.3076190476190475E-3">0.0013</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.0416666666666701">1:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.8457142857142919E-3">0.0018</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.0833333333333299">2:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.8580952380952364E-3">0.0029</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.125">3:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3.3980952380952383E-3">0.0034</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.1666666666666701">4:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3.5380952380952482E-3">0.0035</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.2083333333333299">5:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.7285714285714157E-3">0.0027</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.25">6:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.4028571428571467E-3">0.0024</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.2916666666666701">7:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.4133333333333424E-3">0.0024</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.3333333333333299">8:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4.1599999999999944E-3">0.0042</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.375">9:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3.3257142857142682E-3">0.0033</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.4166666666666701">10:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3.7276190476190599E-3">0.0037</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.4583333333333299">11:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.6780952380952307E-3">0.0027</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.5">12:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.1896226415094337E-3">0.0022</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.5416666666666701">13:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.8716981132075401E-3">0.0019</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.5833333333333299">14:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2.1915094339622554E-3">0.0022</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.625">15:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.4905660377358524E-3">0.0015</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.6666666666666701">16:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.423584905660363E-3">0.0014</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right height=17 x:num="1.7083333333333299">17:00</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.68399999999998E-3">0.0017</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  • #536
  • Dec 3, 2006 2:16am Dec 3, 2006 2:16am
One thing I did not mentioned. These averages only go back to July of this year. Thats all the Meta Trader would do.
  • #537
  • Edited 2:37am Dec 6, 2006 2:18am | Edited 2:37am
Sorry about the double post. When I posted this message it said FF was having heavy loads. Had to type it all up again and liked the second version better. It's the post below this one. Matt
  • #538
  • Dec 6, 2006 2:35am Dec 6, 2006 2:35am
Hello all,

I haven't posted here in a while, but I have been thinking about this topic still. In the meantime I've been reading up on things such as grid trading, martingale, Hans method, etc.. I also haven't posted because I had the feeling my results from backtesting were pointing to a grim picture for the daily range strategy.

Why am I posting though? I am coming back to this threads idea. The grid system is really what made it clear though. Grid trading doesn't use trend lines or chart formations. It simply uses hedging and price movement to stay on the right side of the trade. My broker, GFT, does not have hedging or EA capabilities though.

So it was simple. All I had to do was take the "daily" out of the daily range strategy. I'm proposing that you simply place straddles from any current price on a chart. There's no need to bring time into this. I think something along the lines of a 200 pip straddle should be used such that it really reduces our risk of getting caught in a ranging market. Ranging markets are the devil.

We won't get a trade every day, but perhaps the profits would be much more consistent? Therefore thats why I'm wondering if perhaps a martingale strategy of doubling up on losers could produce great profits. You just need an account large enough to be able to handle it. Slow steady profits. Or if a trade is stopped out immediately enter a position in the direction of the new trend at the point you get stopped out. Hope to profit off of that to overcome the previous losing trade. I think doubling up might be more fruitful. 80 good trades out of 100, with effective money management I could probably be able to double up several times in case I do happen to lose several times in a row; which begins to become severely unlikely.

I think the difference would be this system exits the market to create a new trade and then double up on that trade. A true martingale strategy keeps adding to a losing position and doesn't exit the market until either profits are realized or the account has a margin call. (Ouch) When you exit the market and look for the new trade. It's new conditions so you're trading to find the trend again rather than bet that the same current trend will stop. When you try to predict tops/bottoms/reversals you get eaten up in trading.

So say price is 1.9000. Place a buy order at 1.9200 and sell at 1.8800. I haven't figured out TP yet, but I'm thinking 40-50. So when a trade ends in success then find the new levels. With a 50 TP on the buy order we would be out of the market at 1.9250. Your next trade levels would be 1.9450 and 1.9050 for buy and short respectively.

What do you all think? This works just like the daily range strategy because the market is always moving either up or down. When you think about it, the daily range strategy could have been implemented at any point in the day. Waiting for the new candle was really just to give us the new point to base our straddle off of. So why wait for a new candle? Just keep making trades as they come. I proposed 200 pips such that we're out of the daily range of trading and for price to move 200 pips it has to trend somehow. What do you all think? Matt
  • #539
  • Dec 6, 2006 3:54am Dec 6, 2006 3:54am
Matt

Thanks for coming back, this thread was dying out.
Regards
  • #540
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:02am Dec 6, 2006 7:02am
I will read the thread again to fully absorb all useful input.


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