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  • #221
  • Aug 29, 2024 7:44am Aug 29, 2024 7:44am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} May you describe those macro points please? All macro data are showing weak economic conditions; markets have fear of recession; are the coming rate cuts for the good reason (i.e., inflation down) or for the bad reason (i.e., recession)? In the case of good reason, Equities will move up and vice-versa.
so you have to understand first that stock market in America is a full blown out of proportion bubble caused by constant qe into asset purchasing. That above everything else drives a company like nvidia for example where its true valuation if 7 dolars os currently times 20 or 18x and unless you really understand you are playing on a bubble of printed money where the 0.05% dividends don't matter what matters is the qt or qe timeframes, all the rest is noise. So as an example for the next 2 weeks, noise is being made and blown out of proportion, and money will flow in on a short term causing nasdaq higher. BUT in the meanwhile everyday, we are seeing money being taken out of the markets by both ebc and fed. You will not see higher highs like they sell you because money doesn't grow out of trees.. it moves from some markets to others, or it does grow when you print it ( that not being the case anymore anywhere for now) just beware of the short top to sell after that's my advice, feel free to read a bit about qt and it's impacts on overall stocks
  • #222
  • Aug 29, 2024 9:33am Aug 29, 2024 9:33am
My planned entry
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  • #223
  • Aug 29, 2024 1:48pm Aug 29, 2024 1:48pm
Quoting Fadhl
My planned entry {image}
Both TP achieved
I'm done for the day.
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  • #224
  • Aug 29, 2024 3:21pm Aug 29, 2024 3:21pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I was wrong about the direction. NVDA results are good (even very good in my view, but who am i?). Market seems not totally satisfied. NQ finally gave us a clear direction. We got a strong red candle. A continuation down is the plan. {image}
Today's close is slightly bearish. The retrace went even above yesterday HH, but we got a sell off in the afternoon session. So same plan, the downtrend should prevail at least to achieve 38.2-50 fib. Tomorrow close is important for weekly close; so a good fight will happen between buyers and sellers until market close.

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For intraday and those who trade Asian session, the last hour provided a bearish flag. A break and test of the flag will provide you a sell trigger.
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  • #225
  • Aug 30, 2024 7:17am Aug 30, 2024 7:17am
Good Friday!
Today we have end of Month and Week. The month close seems very bullish, unless we have a crazy Friday today (unlikely). The week seems as well bullish unless we close below 19433 which is doable.
So today, market will be very active as mentioned previously.
For the intraday, both Asian and London sessions bounced and created a bearish wedge. I'll wait for the break and test of the lower TL to go short.
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  • #226
  • Aug 30, 2024 8:50am Aug 30, 2024 8:50am
Pay attention to Consumer sentiment:
1- Good/inline: Good for Equities
2- Bad: Bad for Equities
  • #227
  • Aug 30, 2024 9:08am Aug 30, 2024 9:08am
Quoting Fadhl
Good Friday! Today we have end of Month and Week. The month close seems very bullish, unless we have a crazy Friday today (unlikely). The week seems as well bullish unless we close below 19433 which is doable. So today, market will be very active as mentioned previously. For the intraday, both Asian and London sessions bounced and created a bearish wedge. I'll wait for the break and test of the lower TL to go short. {image}
The opening range was bullish and data was green/inline. So from TA, we should go long, but I'm not confident, it smells fishy. I'll stay sidelines until further development.
GL!
  • #228
  • Aug 30, 2024 9:51am Aug 30, 2024 9:51am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} The opening range was bullish and data was green/inline. So from TA, we should go long, but I'm not confident, it smells fishy. I'll stay sidelines until further development. GL!
Today's entry
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  • #229
  • Aug 30, 2024 10:00am Aug 30, 2024 10:00am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Today's entry {image}
It was very fast; I'm done here.... Will now just see the M/Q close... See you next week!
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  • #230
  • Aug 30, 2024 10:16am Aug 30, 2024 10:16am
Here is another opportunity to go short, but I won't take it as I've to leave now.
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  • #231
  • Sep 1, 2024 2:57pm Sep 1, 2024 2:57pm
Monthly/Weekly/Daily Analysis:
1- Monthly & Weekly:
NQ made Monthly and Weekly bullish closes, inline with the overall long direction. Expectation is a continuation up. However, the recession cloud is still here, not completely out. Further data are needed.
Bad data is bad for equities and vice-versa.
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2- Daily:
NQ made an irrelevant close; an inside bar. Price needs to break the master candle for clear direction, up or down. So pay attention to the key levels to enter in position. Until then, it'll be only noise.
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Tomorrow NY is closed. So no trade for me unless price reaches the master candle. GL!
  • #232
  • Sep 3, 2024 7:54am Sep 3, 2024 7:54am
Good day!
Both Asian and London sessions sold NQ after price tested the daily HH master candle. Normally, NY will continue down until price tests LL of the master candle (red dotted line 19078). However, we have key data news: ISM manufacturing data. It's very relevant for recession fears.
1- Green: ATH is expected;
2- Red: 19078 is the target.
GL!
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  • #233
  • Sep 3, 2024 9:13am Sep 3, 2024 9:13am
Inline ISM!
Here is my today's plan
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  • #234
  • Sep 3, 2024 9:35am Sep 3, 2024 9:35am
Quoting Fadhl
Inline ISM! Here is my today's plan {image}
In case this H1 candle closes below my level 19275, here my sell lmt entry
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  • #235
  • Sep 3, 2024 9:53am Sep 3, 2024 9:53am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} In case this H1 candle closes below my level 19275, here my sell lmt entry {image}
Cancelled!
And I bought this
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  • #236
  • Sep 3, 2024 10:42am Sep 3, 2024 10:42am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Cancelled! And I bought this {image}
Keep an eye on the gap from August 15th
  • #237
  • Edited 12:14pm Sep 3, 2024 12:01pm | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Cancelled! And I bought this {image}
I use Trading View to trade NQ. Quick questions:
(1) Instead of saying "Nasdaq E-mini Futures", why are your charts saying "US 100 cash CFD"?
(2) The price points I see on my charts do no seem to match your price points. I am using the September contract for NQ.
  • #238
  • Sep 4, 2024 7:44am Sep 4, 2024 7:44am
Quoting BikB
{quote} I use Trading View to trade NQ. Quick questions: (1) Instead of saying "Nasdaq E-mini Futures", why are your charts saying "US 100 cash CFD"? (2) The price points I see on my charts do no seem to match your price points. I am using the September contract for NQ.
There are 2 different NQ:
1- NQ spots or CFD or cash (these are same)
2- NQ Futures (Contracts)
NQ spot prices also differ from broker to another. NQ futures also differ on type of contracts: september, december....
As most FF traders are FX traders, they use NQ spots for indices. Hence I share NQ spot charts.
Personally I trade both, but more futures.
In terms of behavior, they're the same with little difference.
I'll share from time to time NQ futures charts.
  • #239
  • Sep 4, 2024 7:52am Sep 4, 2024 7:52am
Good day!
Yesterday movement was completely out of scope; really nothing supported that movement; no events, news was inline in favor of NQ up and we had bullish monthly and weekly close; so all converge towards an up movement.
Anyhow, I was clearly stopped yesterday as price erased the bullish weekly candle. We got a strong bearish daily candle.
Both Asian and London sessions were consolidating. So nothing to do, we've to wait and see how NY opening range behave to jump in.
Just a guess, market has trapped out all ST buyers. The same market may trap today all ST sellers. GL!
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  • #240
  • Sep 4, 2024 8:37am Sep 4, 2024 8:37am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} There are 2 different NQ: 1- NQ spots or CFD or cash (these are same) 2- NQ Futures (Contracts) NQ spot prices also differ from broker to another. NQ futures also differ on type of contracts: september, december.... As most FF traders are FX traders, they use NQ spots for indices. Hence I share NQ spot charts. Personally I trade both, but more futures. In terms of behavior, they're the same with little difference. I'll share from time to time NQ futures charts.
Here is NQ! futures chart. Price might go to 50-61.8 fib or from the current level it goes up. there is no need to go to 50-61.8 fib.
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