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  • #118,801
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:42am Aug 23, 2024 11:42am
A 1h chart is a little more decisive looking
A nice hangman..
PA has been above 1186. So far it a little like touching a hot stove. The st rejection levels may be 1174 and 65.. As shown. 1186 may be more a larger one. Today being a week close is better for it. The week is still open. St being and holding below 1174 and 65 is better for a rejection.
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  • #118,802
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:53am Aug 23, 2024 11:53am
next h closes a 4h.. If below 1165 its just a little better for a rejection. Just a little added power. 1186 is a big ass number. 2023 could not take it. I dont know what will happen. If pa finds itself back below 1037 that rejection is a hot stove reject. The larger closes below are best. Its likely a bad ass fight here for both sides.
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  • #118,803
  • Aug 23, 2024 12:11pm Aug 23, 2024 12:11pm
The 4h just 1 pipet below 1174.1.. But still below 86.. Not below 1165. 1.1184.7ish has some st R value. Its too close to 1186 to count
ST traders who dont know about 1186 may be using 1184.7
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  • #118,804
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:14pm Aug 23, 2024 1:14pm
Back above 1186.. It's very bullish no doubt. Bullish above 1186 unless some crazy shit happens on close below 1139.6 today.. That's unlikely.. The next challenge above 1186 is 1215.. Since the Q is open now until next Friday. Any rejection can be wild. No evidence of bears atm.. If they show up it will be visible. If they show up 1186 1139 and 1037 are likely points to test them. These can support if its bullish. They can resist with pa below. The Q is open, pa looks bullish. 1.1440 is within a normal Q average. PA is above a average day week and month atm. This current 12h candle is no joke. It cracked 1139 and 1186. It looks like it will do it on the week close. Unless that changes, next week looks to rise. Even with the overextended month.
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  • #118,805
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:22pm Aug 23, 2024 1:22pm
I dont do a lot of trendlines.. here is one with pa touching the upper.
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  • #118,806
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:25pm Aug 23, 2024 1:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
I dont do a lot of trendlines.. here is one with pa touching the upper. {image}
zoomed in looks like this on the 1h.
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  • #118,807
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:31pm Aug 23, 2024 1:31pm
Big news often hits big numbers. You never know if they hold or not. If they are to reject. They often retrace the large candle that was made to hit to them.
For me, I dont want to tell someone the wrong thing. So if they do reject. The rungs on the ladder like 1186 39,, smaller 1174 65 get tested. In a reject they tend to act like s/r. In a strong trend. A strong trend often dont penetrate them. In a weak move rejected. They give up easier. Pa tends to be trapped on the rejection side. PA tends to slip back to the level before news.
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  • #118,808
  • Aug 23, 2024 1:54pm Aug 23, 2024 1:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
Big news often hits big numbers. You never know if they hold or not. If they are to reject. They often retrace the large candle that was made to hit to them. For me, I dont want to tell someone the wrong thing. So if they do reject. The rungs on the ladder like 1186 39,, smaller 1174 65 get tested. In a reject they tend to act like s/r. In a strong trend. A strong trend often dont penetrate them. In a weak move rejected. They give up easier. Pa tends to be trapped on the rejection side. PA tends to slip back to the level before news.
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  • #118,809
  • Aug 23, 2024 2:46pm Aug 23, 2024 2:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image}
Not to say, it can't happen this last hour of the week. Atm it hasn't penetrated 1186. I didnt think it was likely. And if it would start, why not take 1139 also or gap open below 1139. The problem is this is a week close. Next Friday is a quarter close. That is the one that counts more. Because it could reach for 1037.
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  • #118,810
  • Aug 23, 2024 2:51pm Aug 23, 2024 2:51pm
1037 can engulf this weeks candle. As bullish as it looks now. The quarter can do this if its just wicking above 1037 1139 1186 this quarter. ..
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  • #118,811
  • Aug 23, 2024 3:03pm Aug 23, 2024 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
1037 can engulf this weeks candle. As bullish as it looks now. The quarter can do this if its just wicking above 1037 1139 1186 this quarter. .. {image}
Why would it do that? IS it very bullish looking? Yes! I dont have a future answer. Using history as a possible reaction. PA has wicked above 1037 the last 4 quarters it was in the area (this is 6 quarters closed). It has closed below 1037 on those. This quarter is number 6. Those others all looked very bullish too. So I do have a little purpose in the madness. You just can't see it on a smaller chart. And if the quarter decides to act this way next week. This may be the high we are looking at.
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  • #118,812
  • Aug 23, 2024 4:42pm Aug 23, 2024 4:42pm
Hi Gator any view on audusd
  • #118,813
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:04pm Aug 23, 2024 11:04pm
Quoting euroboy2208
Hi Gator any view on audusd
A quarter average is 623. ATM its moved 450 pips. It has about 173 pips up till average is hit. In the past above the current high is wicks.. A new month starts a new quarter at 0. So it may run higher into the wicks. When tired it may take it all back.
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  • #118,814
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:19pm Aug 23, 2024 11:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A quarter average is 623. ATM its moved 450 pips. It has about 173 pips up till average is hit. In the past above the current high is wicks.. A new month starts a new quarter at 0. So it may run higher into the wicks. When tired it may take it all back. {image}
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Averages based on 20 periods.
If the bottom is in. Those are potential rise averages.
Year wise that's 20 years worth of averages. If China has slowed. Those lengths may shrink. I personally think pa is headed toward 1971 levels. 50 years ago levels.
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  • #118,815
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:29pm Aug 23, 2024 11:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}{image} Averages based on 20 periods. If the bottom is in. Those are potential rise averages. Year wise that's 20 years worth of averages. If China has slowed. Those lengths may shrink. I personally think pa is headed toward 1971 levels. 50 years ago levels.
My audusd short avg is 0.6745. Am screwed if it breaks 0.6800
  • #118,816
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:43pm Aug 23, 2024 11:43pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} My audusd short avg is 0.6745. Am screwed if it breaks 0.6800
Average month is about 300 pips.. This month is already 450 pips.. 50% more.
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  • #118,817
  • Aug 23, 2024 11:59pm Aug 23, 2024 11:59pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} My audusd short avg is 0.6745. Am screwed if it breaks 0.6800
You may get lucky where it is.. Possible double top .6803/6798ish. You may get lucky with a double top. No promises.. It looks bullish..
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  • #118,818
  • Aug 24, 2024 1:24am Aug 24, 2024 1:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You may get lucky where it is.. Possible double top .6803/6798ish. You may get lucky with a double top. No promises.. It looks bullish.. {image} {image} {image}
Hope so dxy should find support and bounce
  • #118,819
  • Aug 24, 2024 2:42am Aug 24, 2024 2:42am
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} Hope so dxy should find support and bounce
Maybe..
The cut news pushed pa to test big levels. Your testing a quarter low. with past highs close. This area is active. USDX
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  • #118,820
  • Aug 24, 2024 2:58am Aug 24, 2024 2:58am
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} Hope so dxy should find support and bounce
The usdx is right at quarter average. So the usd may grow some balls across the board.
547 is average. So far at close pa has moved 545 this quarter. usdx. The aud has moved more than eu in their normal range.
Since the eu has moved less than average, and the aud 1.5 X normal. The aud may drop harder. At least I hope for your sake.
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