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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #681
  • Jul 16, 2007 4:29am Jul 16, 2007 4:29am
Quoting marketwavez
How is this a mess ? .....

It's all about education
- and what you are exposed to as a trader that makes the difference !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
( See chart below )
End of a Wave 5 may be among us ?

The markets are not a mess - they are about Interpretation........

- We all don't see the world the same way so there will always be a
difference of opinion , but the waves are always there .
-------------------------------------------------------------
The next time you think there is a mess send me a PM
and I will post you a chart .....
Working from your chart and wave count, I calculate the W 5 targets as:
2.0395 / 2.0488 / 2.0606....it looks as if´the first will be hit soon.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #682
  • Jul 16, 2007 5:14am Jul 16, 2007 5:14am
Quoting Islander
Working from your chart and wave count, I calculate the W 5 targets as:
2.0395 / 2.0488 / 2.0606....it looks as if´the first will be hit soon.
Since I have no clue - what relationship / expansion / projection do you use for an estimated target of Wave 5?

A fib relationship to Wave 1? I think I saw it mentioned that at times 5 is equal to 1 which is 160 in MW's example. That'd put the last dip + 160 at 2.0420.

I really have no idea however *g*
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #683
  • Jul 16, 2007 5:51am Jul 16, 2007 5:51am
Quoting SeekingLight
Since I have no clue - what relationship / expansion / projection do you use for an estimated target of Wave 5?

A fib relationship to Wave 1? I think I saw it mentioned that at times 5 is equal to 1 which is 160 in MW's example. That'd put the last dip + 160 at 2.0420.

I really have no idea however *g*
A fellow trader did a lot of research into EW ratios in cable, his results showed that the most accurate ratios to use for the 5th wave were based on Wave 3 - .618; .786 and 1.00. I used these based on W2 @ 1.9654; W3 @ 2.0205 and W4 @ 2.0054.

I think it makes sense to base the projection on the most recent price action (W3) rather than the earlier action (W1) With the wave count used, W3 was very strong at 336% of W1 and so far we have a strong W5 and time will tell weather the higher W5 targets get hit.

For me, the first sign that a pull back MIGHT happen would be price breaking and closing under the 5min 34 EMA and for that EMA to roll over and start sloping down, followed by the same action relative to the 200 EMA.....no signs of either happening yet
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #684
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:00am Jul 17, 2007 5:00am
Opportunity #GJ3/07
GBP/JPY Long
4 parts
Entry: 245.52
Stop (initial): 244.72

Wave 5 of big wave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 246.14 (+62). S/L tightened to 245.81 (guarantees +29).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 247.26 (+174). S/L tightened to 245.95 (guarantees +43).
Update 3: Took 3rd profit at 248.43 (+291). S/L tightened to 246.52 (guarantees +100).
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).
Tra-X
  • #685
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:23am Jul 17, 2007 5:23am
Quoting Traex
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).

Mehehehe

Will you hold out until 251.50 / 252.50? =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #686
  • Jul 17, 2007 5:36am Jul 17, 2007 5:36am
Quoting SeekingLight
Mehehehe

Will you hold out until 251.50 / 252.50? =)
Maybe, SeekingLight. Let's see.
Tra-X
  • #687
  • Jul 17, 2007 8:35am Jul 17, 2007 8:35am
Opportunity #GJ3/07
GBP/JPY Long
4 parts
Entry: 245.52
Stop (initial): 244.72

Wave 5 of big wave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 246.14 (+62). S/L tightened to 245.81 (guarantees +29).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 247.26 (+174). S/L tightened to 245.95 (guarantees +43).
Update 3: Took 3rd profit at 248.43 (+291). S/L tightened to 246.52 (guarantees +100).
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).
Update 5: S/L tightened to 248.52 (guarantees +300).
Tra-X
  • #688
  • Jul 17, 2007 9:29am Jul 17, 2007 9:29am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #GJ3/07

Update 5: S/L tightened to 248.52 (guarantees +300).

I love watching you at work

Say, can you help me with this cable mess? I'm currently trying to estimate a potential wave end for this ongoing something and I'm constantly running into the problem of this last impulse running close to equal or bigger of the last 3, so I don't know where to guess a top. 2.0500 / 550 / 600 spring to mind and 2.0575 stands out on some of my projections.
But I have nothing really clear yet :/

We also made the very same move last June/July and I am astonished nobody, including me, realized this and capitalized on this. We also just had a February/March rally, also similiar/same to last year. Basically we had around 8 weeks twice to make an insane amount of pips with doing nothing but waiting it out. *sighs*

Anyway, here's the giant chart (external, please click to view):

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/4...4hcountgc7.gif
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #689
  • Jul 17, 2007 10:25am Jul 17, 2007 10:25am
Quoting SeekingLight
Anyway, here's the giant chart (external, please click to view):

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/4...4hcountgc7.gif
Thanks SeekingLight, I know you're rocking too.

Man Cable is really powerful and I'm giving up trying to find its top unless it reaches above 2.06. I agree with your count for cable from 1.9622 bottom last month. From 1.9183, I counted 5-wave until 2.0131, then an A-B-C to 1.9622, then another 5-wave.. could it be a very large wave 5 extension? Big wave 1: 1.9183 - 2.0131, wave 2: 2.0131 - 1.9622, wave 3 is now.
Anyway, it's really a mess here now, I agree.
Tra-X
  • #690
  • Jul 17, 2007 2:28pm Jul 17, 2007 2:28pm
Hi Traex....great thread and I hope you dont mind the odd post....

The attached is using W3 for projecting W5....just the .786 and 1.00 left now as targets.

I like the way its held (mostly) by the APF and my guess is that the W 4 low is at a fibo of the APF channels....I think there´s a modified indicator somewhere...

From other time cycle work I have many time lines coming up next week - which is the 322nd week off the June 2001 Low......the Gold T/L is at 322 hours up from the start of this leg up - we´ll see

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jly 17 4 hr.jpg Size: 58 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #691
  • Jul 17, 2007 9:24pm Jul 17, 2007 9:24pm
Quoting Islander
From other time cycle work I have many time lines coming up next week - which is the 322nd week off the June 2001 Low......the Gold T/L is at 322 hours up from the start of this leg up - we´ll see

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Hi Islander, thanks for the chart.

Decided to use my max rally range method for entry now, hope cable reaches there.

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Short
4 parts
Entry: 2.0674 (limit)
Stop (initial): 2.0724

End of 5-wave sequence from 1.9622.
Tra-X
  • #692
  • Jul 18, 2007 1:31am Jul 18, 2007 1:31am
Quoting Traex
Hi Islander, thanks for the chart.

Decided to use my max rally range method for entry now, hope cable reaches there.

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Short
4 parts
Entry: 2.0674 (limit)
Stop (initial): 2.0724

End of 5-wave sequence from 1.9622.

OH GOODIE =)

I was a bit afraid of 2.0500 so I had a limit on one of my two last GBPUSD runners at 2.0490, but I will try to keep the last one for 2.0600
Thanks for the nice confirmation of my estimates guys!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #693
  • Jul 18, 2007 2:36am Jul 18, 2007 2:36am
One other thing - could this be a valid count?

If so, I would put us currently in 5.2 down of the 5 up, bottom of 5.2 probably already hit and 5.3 coming to us shortly hopefully...


5.1 would be 1.3757 - 1.3830. 5.2 1.3830 - 1.3800ish.

Keep in mind I am an amateur and simplifying, so be gentle

FE 100 of this 1-2-3 would line up PERFECTLY with 1.3875 s/r and FE 161.8 perfectly with 1.3920ish, so I rather would like this to happen/unfold
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #694
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:03am Jul 18, 2007 4:03am
Quoting SeekingLight
FE 100 of this 1-2-3 would line up PERFECTLY with 1.3875 s/r and FE 161.8 perfectly with 1.3920ish, so I rather would like this to happen/unfold
We're all amateur.
I'm afraid to trade EUR/USD and Cable now, they're chopping like craaaaazy. EUR/USD upper trendline is in 1.3850s now, not yet touched.
Tra-X
  • #695
  • Jul 18, 2007 4:24am Jul 18, 2007 4:24am
Quoting Traex
We're all amateur.
I'm afraid to trade EUR/USD and Cable now, they're chopping like craaaaazy. EUR/USD upper trendline is in 1.3850s now, not yet touched.

Oh? Mine coincided with 1.3830 s/r, probably why the reaction was so strong.
It's unfair, cable gets to hop ABOVE the channel and EURUSD gets beaten back down 50 pips while I wasn't awake to take profit ;(

And I can see why you're afraid to trade them, you're scared they won't make 500+ pips fast enough to compete with your GJ, right? ;D Hehehehe
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #696
  • Jul 18, 2007 6:14am Jul 18, 2007 6:14am
Quoting Traex
Hi Islander, thanks for the chart.

Decided to use my max rally range method for entry now, hope cable reaches there.

Opportunity #G32/07
GBP/USD Short
4 parts
Entry: 2.0674 (limit)
Stop (initial): 2.0724

End of 5-wave sequence from 1.9622.
Looking back at the rallies cable has made since Nov'05, they measure:
715 pips, 817 pips, 1790 pips, 1050 pips, 1330 pips, and 932 pips.
Interesting how many fib ratios there are between these numbers

This rally has currently hesitated 3 pips short of 932 - is that the end or will it continue to 2.067 (1050), 2.095 (1330) or 2.14 (1790)??
  • #697
  • Jul 19, 2007 4:40pm Jul 19, 2007 4:40pm
I'm incredibly bored and looking for some artificial curve fitting reassurement EURUSD will rise further, so I took my monthly and counted weekly...

Is this possibly valid or am I totally off? Having trouble where to place 3 vs 5 really...

All counting is really a larger wave 5 from monthly.
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #698
  • Edited 4:45am Jul 20, 2007 2:57am | Edited 4:45am
Well SL you really got me thinking and as I´d been looking at shorter time frames I decided to do some work on the monthly and weekly.

On the monthly, we are now in (gold) W5 with targets of 1.4918 / 5815 / 6959. These are based on the 61.8% / 78.6% / 100% values of W3 and I used the 78:6% as my monthly W5 target.

Now to the weekly chart (below) where I have used the first retrace as W1 and W2 (magenta)....this allows projections of 1.618, 2.618 and 4.236 as targets for W3....the first 2 have already been passed (2.618 = 1.3665) thus leaving the 4.236 extension at 1.4820 as the current target.

NB There are several examples of the larger 4.236 W3s in the lower time frames, both in the Euro and Cable and this IMO supports its use in this weekly chart and points to this being an extended W3.

IF this W3 completes in the 1.4800 area, the projected most probable waves 4 and 5 would easily fulfil the Monthly target.

Now back to trading and 4 hourlies and under!......mm anyone for another 6/8 week pull back soon?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro jly 07 weekly.jpg Size: 52 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #699
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:26am Jul 20, 2007 4:26am
Opportunity #GJ3/07
GBP/JPY Long
4 parts
Entry: 245.52
Stop (initial): 244.72

Wave 5 of big wave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 246.14 (+62). S/L tightened to 245.81 (guarantees +29).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 247.26 (+174). S/L tightened to 245.95 (guarantees +43).
Update 3: Took 3rd profit at 248.43 (+291). S/L tightened to 246.52 (guarantees +100).
Update 4: S/L tightened to 247.52 (guarantees +200).
Update 5: S/L tightened to 248.52 (guarantees +300).
Update 6: S/L tightened to 249.52 (guarantees +400). Just came back from downtown to see this monster has hit 251.
Tra-X
  • #700
  • Jul 20, 2007 4:31am Jul 20, 2007 4:31am
Quoting Traex
Update 6: S/L tightened to 249.52 (guarantees +400). Just came back from downtown to see this monster has hit 251.


*huglywuglies*

Yepp. Do you mind if I ride the last 80-180 pips along with you?

251.80 and 252.50ish targetted personally

Also boarded the GBPCHF freight train =)

Chooooo-Chooooooo!

Excellent trade man, I hope you are SWIMMING in pips and money
Trust price. Know yourself.
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