Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee July 30-31, 2024

You have to remember: We are still at historically fine unemployment numbers. Not the lowest, no where near the highest. Pretty average. In order for inflation to subside, it was/is almost a requirement to have unemployment creep up. Otherwise, wages have to keep increasing at unhealthy rates to get employees to work for you...which means you have to raise prices to maintain profit...which means consumers have to pay more....which means those workers have to pay more for the things they buy even though they are going higher wages....it's a wild feedback loop.

If you can convince people to buy less, that will lower the inflation naturally as supply > demand....but people see "my paycheck is bigger, I can spend more!" (And don't realize they might want some savings in 6 months). Since people consuming less in low unemployment environments is unlikely, the FED has to attempt addressing the "cost" of borrowing to buy all those things. That typically affects the employment numbers as decreased spending would....but if the FED does it,we get to blame THEM for the inflation woes rather than take personal responsibility....because who wants to do THAT, am I right?

I can't say I am "happy" with the 818k fewer jobs created number because I don't fully understand it. I have not delved into it much to see if, as an example, it is "normal" to be off by x% and we simply have seen a very big # of new jobs created, so the # in the revision is in line from a %, but high as a #.

As for inflation, current levels are below average for the past few decades. However, wage increases are up. That is "great" for the average person. However, whether the average person should be making less $ so inflation can also be down is a larger question.

All told, the economic data is pointing to a very nice picture. Inflation is indeed "trending" lower by definition (it is closer to 2% than 9% after all, right?). The markets have reviewed their INSANE, knee-jerk reaction of pricing in excessive fed cuts I early August (thank goodness)....though why the heck does the world go to **** for three days when I take a vacation and have zero data access??? Tip to the kids out there: have enough liquidity in your accounts to handle a 10% equity market pullback in 3 days apparently.....or SLs (but who uses THOSE, am I right??)

Best of luck in all your trades!

Lets Crash Gold !

At their July meeting, Federal Reserve officials approached the possibility of reducing interest rates but ultimately decided to wait, signaling that a cut in September seemed increasingly likely. The minutes from the meeting indicated that if economic data continued to align with expectations, it would probably be appropriate to ease monetary policy then. While all members voted to maintain the current rate range of 5.25%-5.5%, some officials leaned towards cutting rates during the July meeting due to recent improvements in inflation and a rise in unemployment. They noted that inflation was trending towards the Fed’s 2% target, but also raised concerns about the accuracy of payroll gains and risks to the labor market. Despite market reactions and a subsequent spike in unemployment claims, further data showed inflation pressures easing and retail sales performing better than expected. Consequently, traders anticipate a rate cut in September as economic conditions continue to evolve.
2 minutes ago

Expected

Well, that was a muted market reaction (so far)....so I guess the AI bots reading the release didn't' find anything too scary.

So, this is not priced in))

you didn't understand. He was saying: "i gonna crash my account on gold" xD hahahah

Buy the rumor sell the news

How did you want to crash gold with Dovish minutes

is it being recorded?

markets are not moving =)

Further Downside Movement for the US Dollar index Bullishness for Gold

I thought there is going to be a live recording

That is FOMC Meeting. This is Minutes.