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DAX Futures September 2024

  • #721
  • Aug 15, 2024 4:19am Aug 15, 2024 4:19am

  1. 2 weeks ago, exactly 2 weeks ago, the worldwide sell off started for 3 sharp days in fullpanic mode
  2. same of july 2020 after US FED meeting and the June 2024 always after US FED meeting
  3. then in steady and continuos way started the recovery ......same happened on both previous sell off
  4. now DAX CASH INDEX reached previous strong support zone 17950 zone = 18010/18020 zone for DAX FUTURE
  5. now it's possible a consolidation mode, then BigBoys will made their next move:
  6. 1. a new leg higher to burn last shorts, or
  7. 2. a retracement of 200/300 pts, max 400/450 pts
  8. Imho the magnitude of the retracement will indicate what they want do next

I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #722
  • Aug 15, 2024 6:33pm Aug 15, 2024 6:33pm
Quoting Brixen
Imho the magnitude of the retracement will indicate what they want do next
Brixen,

It is the weekly chart of dollar index after that hellish rise I thought we were finally going to get a cool off or down move, I say hellish because this little graph represents the economy sure we've had a good run after 2008 crash but economic recovery also meant things were going to heat after the pandemic all hell broke loose ! things have become so expensive people are finding it really hard to survive and dollar becoming strong also meant every other countries currency lost their value which accelerated the high cost of living even further and making real estate almost unattainable for most. Its not a pretty picture so when I saw the first sign of decline I felt relief because if it decides to go up again we're in for a real hell and I don't think I'm exaggerating I mean if it goes up again it will be around 30p from the highest R and truthfully speaking I'm not sure if civilization will still exist after that run can we even afford our basic necessities ? Countries like ours will surely fall like Argentina or Venezuela because of the currency devaluations against strong dollar and I'm sure economically better positioned countries will also suffer too middle class will disappear idk I can only imagine dystopia but then again am I being too dramatic ? I just don't think I am.

Now on the other hand cool off will mean we're headed for an economic downturn which will mean a lot of bankruptcies people will lose their jobs things will also be hard for everyone especially at the bottom of that fall because it will be again 30p from that last support on the bottom you and I both know there's going to be bloothbath and its not a pretty picture neither but I can't help but feel I prefer the latter I just can't imagine the other scenario things going up again sounds like stairway to hell.
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  • #723
  • Aug 16, 2024 5:04am Aug 16, 2024 5:04am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Brixen, It is the weekly chart of dollar index after that hellish rise I thought we were finally going to get a cool off or down move, I say hellish because this little graph represents the economy sure we've had a good run after 2008 crash but economic recovery also meant things were going to heat after the pandemic all hell broke loose ! things have become so expensive people are finding it really hard to survive and dollar becoming strong also meant every other countries currency lost their value which accelerated the high cost of living...
Hi Piquant, old friend of many battles here.

You opinion is the same of many other people around the world and I agree with you on many points (middle class structural crisis, prices of many thngs out of control, specially houses and services,) but, but, but........
I am and I remain an intraday trader, so bigger scenario could be very dangerous for me, even if it is correct, even.......if it is correct.

The explosion of end of the day options on many financial markets, the usual Quarter and monthly expiration, the strenght of AI Trading softwares, the incredible concentration of the main financial market in only 7 companies, make the art of trading very very difficult and trends are becoming very fast, very directional, and often go beyond every human forecast/imagination in very few hours, days or weeks.

Then the well directed and well paid orchestra full of medias, gurus, web sites, will explain to us, poor humans, why we have seen a -10% in only 1 day and then why markets have recovered in same fast way..........but only after the fact!!!!

Luckily the price remain our only source of survivor here, and just follow it as a sheep remain the only way to trade for living, imho.
Then history often repeat itself from time to time....so looking at what happened in the past, often it is instructive for what will happen in the foreseeable future.....

Good luck to you and to me my friend.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #724
  • Aug 16, 2024 5:07am Aug 16, 2024 5:07am
DAX FUTURE ABOVE 18370 ZONE WILL LEAD TO 18470/490 ZONE.

While below 18370/350 zone wll lead to 18270 zone retest from the above, imho.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #725
  • Edited 7:51pm Aug 18, 2024 7:38pm | Edited 7:51pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} The explosion of end of the day options on many financial markets, the usual Quarter and monthly expiration, the strenght of AI Trading softwares, the incredible concentration of the main financial market in only 7 companies, make the art of trading very very difficult and trends are becoming very fast, very directional, and often go beyond every human forecast/imagination in very few hours, days or weeks.
Absolutely !

Its becoming extremely difficult to trade although I wasn't there to see it back in the day I only came in around 10years ago but surely the fundamentals must have stayed the same I'd assume because what I've learnt is carrying me through the days still however like you've said even on 1m I see the strong directional moves every single day.

But make no mistake Brixen they make you go to hell and back before thrusting in a strong directional move sometimes they go bypass levels ! confuse you with different directions back and forth before they establish a move for themselves and if you can't be "the best" literally you're sure to die you can't just apply few indicators and hope for the best you have to constantly manage and eliminate the bad apples and of course leave enough margin ! because unpredictability is getting very common

It rarely goes in the direction that it first indicates and bypass levels and now I see after many years most of us are doomed for failure just because of the sheer difficulty of making consistent gains day in and day out especially in these conditions.
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  • #726
  • Aug 18, 2024 7:58pm Aug 18, 2024 7:58pm
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Absolutely ! Its becoming extremely difficult to trade although I wasn't there to see it back in the day I only came in around 10years ago but surely the fundamentals must have stayed the same I'd assume because what I've learnt is carrying me through the days still however like you've said even on 1m I see the strong directional moves every single day. But make no mistake Brixen they make you go to hell and back before thrusting in a strong directional move sometimes they go bypass levels ! confuse you with different directions back and...
And it likely will become worse with the coming US elections.
It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
  • #727
  • Aug 19, 2024 1:21am Aug 19, 2024 1:21am
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #728
  • Aug 19, 2024 3:29am Aug 19, 2024 3:29am
Quoting Brixen
{image}
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #729
  • Aug 19, 2024 5:26am Aug 19, 2024 5:26am
Quoting Brixen
{image}
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #730
  • Aug 19, 2024 8:20am Aug 19, 2024 8:20am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} {image}
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #731
  • Aug 19, 2024 9:09am Aug 19, 2024 9:09am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} {image}
slight above 500 zone is the target
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #732
  • Aug 19, 2024 9:41am Aug 19, 2024 9:41am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} slight above 500 zone is the target
+151 p FDXS=+30 pips FDXM

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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #733
  • Aug 20, 2024 1:31am Aug 20, 2024 1:31am
I went long again for 1 small FDXS 18466,
Stop at be, target roughly +150 pts.
18490 zone must hold otherwise reversal below 470/450 zone.


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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #734
  • Aug 20, 2024 2:48am Aug 20, 2024 2:48am
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #735
  • Aug 20, 2024 7:42am Aug 20, 2024 7:42am
Quoting Brixen
I went long again for 1 small FDXS 18466, Stop at be, target roughly +150 pts. 18490 zone must hold otherwise reversal below 470/450 zone. {image}
Stopped out at be, but I bought moments ago 1 FDXM at 18456
Wild horse often like to play around crucial key level........
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #736
  • Aug 20, 2024 8:37am Aug 20, 2024 8:37am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Stopped out at be, but I bought moments ago 1 FDXM at 18456 Wild horse often like to play around crucial key level........
466 in this moment closed FDXM for +10 pips FDXM
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #737
  • Aug 20, 2024 8:53am Aug 20, 2024 8:53am
Tough battle around 1st key level of the day.....
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I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #738
  • Aug 20, 2024 9:21am Aug 20, 2024 9:21am
437 now bought 1 FDXS
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #739
  • Aug 20, 2024 9:35am Aug 20, 2024 9:35am
18420 and then 18350 zone potential support while 18460/470 could act as resistance now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #740
  • Aug 20, 2024 9:37am Aug 20, 2024 9:37am
Quoting Brixen
437 now bought 1 FDXS
additionals placed 42..till 390/400 zone for now
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
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