USDCAD trend reversal?

why you say will go down ? can I know ?

Usd / Cad

Time to make a decision ............

Which way do you think ?
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North or South ?

Like I was saying this whole time....south it keeps hitting that 1.0445 level and today could be the day it breaks provided we get the right news from USD and CAD but I'll probably put a low S/L

The nearest aim Usd/Cad is 1.04. In the same time it is support level. The pair will reach it in end of the week.

I would like to point out that the USD/CAD has bounced off 1.0430 support time and again

With the economic news surely one would expect some sort of North advance. 30 - 50 pips maybe back towards 1.05 area.

Well with the good US news and all it probably will go up but I doubt it will go beyond 1.0550....besides the real news comes out tomorrow and on wed. I'd say that this new upward momentum the US gained is just guaranteeing it'll fall harder in the near future most likely breaking 1.04 but for now I'll go long

looks like it'll test the support at 1.0380 first yes it went down! I might long at that point

anyone knows the reason for the sudden sharp fall?

I think it's because the pair needs to complete it's downward push...thats what me and DutchTrader were arguing about...problem is...who knows how much it'll go back up once this fall is complete.

Short since 1.0483 here, waited a while for it.

Nice! I just opened a short at the support point and luckily it broke now is the psychological barrier of 1.0400 then 1.0380

I've been calling for a 1.0393 test, but I was merely noticing the smart bounce off support.

Hi there Ded .......Congratulations to yah !

Lower still ? ...................... Anybody ?
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I would guess oil. Up over $74 & rising.

Many feel that it is the breakout finally of the strong resistence in CAD/YEN that made this fall in USD/CAD.

cad is still moving down at pivot at 10420 loking for little retrace then back to test 10420

I guess the biggest question any trader that wants to jump in on a short CAD is, WHERE???

This thing has small retracements, but nice moves down.

It would probably be safe to enter a SHORT basically anywhere and anytime, since this thing seems to be going "DOWN DOWN DOWN".

I was hoping for a move up to 1.0529 for a Short Entry, but I may have to wait until all the Oil in Canada is all used up. (LOL)

Until then, I remain on the sidelines on this pair, waiting for a retrace on the 4th Elliott Wave Cycle.

Good Trading to all those who risk any LONGS with this baby.

Hi Monark -
Where is this wave 4 that you are speaking of ?

Can you post a chart so we see ?
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Much thanx ,

USD/CAD
4HOUR

Start of Wave 2-8-07 1.1875

Wave 1 2-23-07 1.1562

Wave 2 3-5-07 1.1825

Waiting now for WAVE 3 to complete around 1.0349
Possible Wave 4 areas:
1.0703
1.0924

Wave 4 projections are based on Fibo retracements I have ran on the monthly chart which now I have as FIBO-WAVE #4 Down in progress now)

These Monthly Fibo Waves are as follows:

FIBO WAVE #1
High 1-2002 1.6196
Low 1-2004 1.2680
38.2% retrace 5-04 1.4006

FIBO WAVE #2
High 5-2004 1.4006
Low 11-2004 1.1716
38.2% retrace 5-2005 1.2730

FIBO WAVE #3
High 5-2005 1.2730
Low 5-2006 1.0932
50% retrace 2-2007 1.1875

FIBO WAVE #4
High 2-2007 1.1875
Low (in progress now the 161.8% extension is 1.0349 and my expected support on this FIBO WAVE #4
Which started in February of 2007
This is where I started my Elliott Wave as per the chart and noted above, on the 4 hour it started 2-8-2007 the high of 1.1875 which is reflected in my Monthly Chart Fibo count.

Based on a Fibo Retrace of the High to the 1.0349 I have the following fibo levels as:
23.6% 1.0703
38.2% 1.0924

4 HOUR CHART IS ATTACHED