{quote} No entry yet. We need a strong green candle, then a test to jump in. You don't need to catch the bottom or the top, you only need to reduce your risks and increase your reward. So be patient! Will update...
- #101
- Aug 1, 2024 1:13pm Aug 1, 2024 1:13pm
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
- #102
- Aug 1, 2024 3:51pm Aug 1, 2024 3:51pm
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
{quote} I just bought {image}
The trade is valid but I don't want to keep open positions during Asian session.
{quote} You're welcomeIf you've any question on my strategy or anything else, please do!
Like I said yesterday, I like your accurate way to explain and the pictures are fantastic, very descriptive. For learning purpose it cannot be better.
I am glad I found you and looking forward to the journey. I am not trading with huge lot size I am still in the learning process.
Thanks again.
- #104
- Aug 2, 2024 6:59am Aug 2, 2024 6:59am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
Good day!
Yesterday, it was a red day for all equities and stocks. The sell off continued during Asian session. So the strong green candle of day before was completely erased, instead of a continuation up! Why? No idea!
I expected a retrace to a key level than a continuation up to test the top of the last month before resuming the downtrend. We got a deep retrace and even now we have a break of a TL (trendline). The break of TL is not confirmed until the day close.
This said, we have NFP in a few minutes. Here is my forecast:
1- Inline data (expected): My initial scenario (retrace and test the the top of the last month) will be in play. So NQ should move up.
2- Overshoot data (unexpected): NQ up above the last month close and may be the end of the MT retrace.
3- Undershoot data (possible): This means recession and another sell off of all equities and stocks.
Will update after the news.
Note: Keep in mind the Risk of a regional war in the Middle east is increasing which will have a huge impacts on markets. It's bad for Equities.
Yesterday, it was a red day for all equities and stocks. The sell off continued during Asian session. So the strong green candle of day before was completely erased, instead of a continuation up! Why? No idea!
I expected a retrace to a key level than a continuation up to test the top of the last month before resuming the downtrend. We got a deep retrace and even now we have a break of a TL (trendline). The break of TL is not confirmed until the day close.
This said, we have NFP in a few minutes. Here is my forecast:
1- Inline data (expected): My initial scenario (retrace and test the the top of the last month) will be in play. So NQ should move up.
2- Overshoot data (unexpected): NQ up above the last month close and may be the end of the MT retrace.
3- Undershoot data (possible): This means recession and another sell off of all equities and stocks.
Will update after the news.
Note: Keep in mind the Risk of a regional war in the Middle east is increasing which will have a huge impacts on markets. It's bad for Equities.
- #106
- Aug 2, 2024 7:43am Aug 2, 2024 7:43am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
NQ has reached a Monthly key level. I do not expect any retrace. So at lower TF, I'm looking for a break and test to enter.
- #108
- Aug 2, 2024 8:16am Aug 2, 2024 8:16am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
My planned entry for today. Hope NY plays it.
- #109
- Aug 2, 2024 8:48am Aug 2, 2024 8:48am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
My planned entry for today. Hope NY plays it. {image}
My Sell stop did not trigger yet.
- #112
- Aug 4, 2024 8:36pm Aug 4, 2024 8:36pm
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
Good week!
What do we have this week?
1- From Monthly perspective, NQ closed bearish
2- From Weekly perspective, NQ also closed bearish
3- From Daily perspective. NQ couldn't really break the last Resistance.
Market opened with a gap down as the Middle east Risk of war is imminent. Without this risk of war, we would expect a battle between buyers and sellers to break the last resistance; but clearly sellers won this battle easily. Hence we should expect a continuation down until the risk of war fades out or the act of war happens with a kneejerk reaction to complete this wave.
I'll wait until NY session to look for opportunities and update here. GL!
What do we have this week?
1- From Monthly perspective, NQ closed bearish
2- From Weekly perspective, NQ also closed bearish
3- From Daily perspective. NQ couldn't really break the last Resistance.
Market opened with a gap down as the Middle east Risk of war is imminent. Without this risk of war, we would expect a battle between buyers and sellers to break the last resistance; but clearly sellers won this battle easily. Hence we should expect a continuation down until the risk of war fades out or the act of war happens with a kneejerk reaction to complete this wave.
I'll wait until NY session to look for opportunities and update here. GL!
- #113
- Aug 5, 2024 7:19am Aug 5, 2024 7:19am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
Good day!
We got a strong selloff during Asian Session. It's not really related to risk of war as Oil and Gold both dropped! So it's clearly related to Friday US data (scenario 3 in my forecast of NFP). This is not over yet; it's related to Fundamental data and it will be fueled with War.
Hence a continuation down is the plan.
Here are two scenarios:
1- Continuation down to MT strong resistance
2- Zigzag. For this one: as long as there is no body candle closes above the yellow box, price will go down.
We got a strong selloff during Asian Session. It's not really related to risk of war as Oil and Gold both dropped! So it's clearly related to Friday US data (scenario 3 in my forecast of NFP). This is not over yet; it's related to Fundamental data and it will be fueled with War.
Hence a continuation down is the plan.
Here are two scenarios:
1- Continuation down to MT strong resistance
2- Zigzag. For this one: as long as there is no body candle closes above the yellow box, price will go down.
- #114
- Aug 5, 2024 7:28am Aug 5, 2024 7:28am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
For reference, NVDA pre-market value is around $91, a huge gap down; so it's better that we watch and see as a bloodbath is underway 
- #116
- Aug 5, 2024 9:22am Aug 5, 2024 9:22am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
If this hour does not close above the yellow box, NQ is going to crash down.
You may enter short with a tight STP just above the last HH.
You may enter short with a tight STP just above the last HH.
- #117
- Aug 5, 2024 9:43am Aug 5, 2024 9:43am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
I'm in. The latest 15mn red candle closed below the previous candle. This gave me confidence that this hour won't close above the yellow box and NQ should drop. My STP is tight.
- #118
- Aug 5, 2024 10:16am Aug 5, 2024 10:16am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
I'm in. The latest 15mn red candle closed below the previous candle. This gave me confidence that this hour won't close above the yellow box and NQ should drop. My STP is tight. {image}
Looking for next opportunity...
- #119
- Aug 5, 2024 11:47am Aug 5, 2024 11:47am
- Joined Jan 2016 | Status: Trader | 3,934 Posts
Buyers and sellers are fighting. So far we have had three extensions (E) of the main H1 Candle. No full candle closed above. So our initial yellow box has extended as well. At some point one of them will give up. I'm with the sellers for FA and Risk on.
