Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

No, not quadratic. And I won't answer any more guesses, ok. Otherwise I may not be able to keep my method secret, strictly for the common good of course. Anyways, if Jacko is right, then my method is a total failure and I will be giving up eventually after admitting defeat.

no no, jacko is not right, you're headed in the right direction, I just think you're overwhelming yourself by taking on the constant analysis of many different currencies. Why don't you just pick a few or even just one? And don't forget that there's more to life than trading.

AUD/JPY prediction for Wednesday November 29 at 19:30 ET

AUD/JPY will rise first to about 91.50 to complete an extended wave three, then descend in an A-B-C corrective wave (wave 4) to about 90.50 and then rise one more time (wave 5) to about 92.10, which will be a good low risk : high reward short trade opportunity.

The current price is 91.20

USD/CHF prediction for Wednesday November 29 at 22:15 ET

USD/CHF is predicted to fall to between 1.2046 and 1.2066, then rise in the fifth wave of its current Wave A of a Wave 4 to about 1.2170 to 1.2225.

If USD/CHF falls to the lower range of the bottom reversal point and forms a clear a-b-c pattern, then there may be an opportunity to buy it at about 1.2046 with a minimum target of 1.2170 to obtain an acceptable reward : risk ratio.

The current price is 1.2086

p.s - USD/CHF is seemingly headed down towards 1.2046, at which point a long trade may be contemplated

The current price is 1.2065
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Previous comment:

We are monitoring so many currency pairs that there is insufficient time to properly analyse some of them. As soon as I get on top of a few, another few slip through my fingers. We have two contradictory trades open on USD/CHF. Only one will work. Which one? Right now, I think the original trade is probably valid, but it may be a premature entry, so it might be good to cash out with a small profit of about 50 pips. Also, we must consider that the latest one could also be based on a wrong long term wave count. I will report back later when I get a chance to analyse it more.

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005

Adjust Stop to 1.5041
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Previous trade signal:

Wednesday November 29 at 9:45 ET

Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5000
Stop is 1.5036
Target is 1.4750
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is minimum 240 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Earlier prediction of the ultimate high of EUR/CAD <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I said, " But the wave pattern still does not yet resemble a complete 1-2-3-4-5 Wave 5 pattern. EUR/CAD is therefore likely to rise a final time to about 1.4950 after falling in an A-B-C corrective wave to about 1.4800. If it does this, then this will be a good short trade opportunity."

Monarch said, "I expect Wave 5 to hit around 1.5020 before turning down, 1.5009 is where I will place my Entry Short Position (which is the middle of the two resistant levels shown above) then I expect it will makes its first Corrective Wave A at the 1.4776 level, where my Exit Target is placed, I then expect it to rise in it's Wave B pattern."

After studying the one day chart some more I can see why EUR/CAD is doing a correction off of the recent high price, and then can anticipate a further high being reached of anywhere between 1.4975 and 1.5100, with 1.5100 being a high probability reversal point. 1.5100 is the 50% retracement approximately of the downtrend since 12/27/2004

Thursday November 30 at 00:00 ET

Adjust target for Trade Signal #258A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3570 to 1.3512

This may be the bottom of a fourth wave, to be followed by a fifth wave carrying the price up to about 2.3600. Then sell at 2.3600, with a stop at 2.3652.

Profit will be 46 pips from this short trade down from what we believe is the top of wave 3 to the bottom of wave 4 of an upwards Wave C.

The Target is 2.3300 to 2.3265 for the large trade from the Top of Wave C downwards.
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Previous trade signals:

Wednesday November 29 at 9:30 ET

Trade Signal #258A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3570
Stop is 2.3606
Target is 2.3300 to 2.3265
Risk is 48 pips
Reward is minimum 258 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.4 to 1

For research purposes only.
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Tuesday November 28 at 4:00 ET

Trade Signal #258 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3453
Stop is 2.3486
Target is 2.3300 to 2.3265
Risk is 45 pips
Reward is minimum 141 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 3.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Due to a substandard RRR, this trade is not system-compliant; it is simply an experiment. We are trading the fifth wave of the Fifth Wave of GBP/CHF down to the very bottom of this trend, which if it reaches our first target of 2.3300, will have travelled a total of 564 pips down.

itme,

Your Trade Signal:

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005

Adjust Stop to 1.5041


My post several days ago agrees with your expectation.

"I expect Wave 5 to hit around 1.5020 before turning down, 1.5009 is where I will place my Entry Short Position (which is the middle of the two resistant levels shown above) then I expect it will makes its first Corrective Wave A at the 1.4776 level, where my Exit Target is placed, I then expect it to rise in it's Wave B pattern."

I have further evaluated the retracement level and placed my entry up from 1.5009 to 1.5018.

I had previously doubted the strength of this currency pair, but with the a small surge with the EUR/USD you could see EUR/CAD rise past our expectations a bit.

A more reasonable point for the EUR/CAD should be around 1.5042 which is close to one of your previous post, and right on your Stop of 1.5041.

Monarch

I am keeping a close eye on the close of the 1 Day 10 Year Candle 11/30/2006 around 11 am EST.

If it closes on the 1.3168 mark - it would match the candle open price of 1.3168 on 11/27/2006.

After the price topped at 1.3216 on the 11/29/2006 which neared the 1.3220-1.3230 point I anticipated to see the Wave "B" pattern develop, it slid down 84 pips and has now slowly crawled back up 1/2 of those pips.

With the news today showing better than we thought it would show for the USD, combined with the EUR being marginally overbought, we have seen EUR/USD slow on its momentum a bit.

I would expect "itme" to have a signal for trade sometime during the Thursday market.

Monarch

itme,

There it is, the high of EUR/CAD for now will be 1.5025. As expected your Entry at 1.5005 held with the Stop having the right cushion so far by 6 pips.

Now the Europe open, we will see how the news affects price today?

Monarch

Thanks for your comments, Monarch,

I checked my EUR/CAD calculations and found an error. The correct high probability reversal value is actually 1.5023. So the stop should be higher, at over 1.5060. The current high is 1.5025

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itme,

Your Trade Signal:

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005

Adjust Stop to 1.5041


My post several days ago agrees with your expectation.

"I expect Wave 5 to hit around 1.5020 before turning down, 1.5009 is where I will place my Entry Short Position (which is the middle of the two resistant levels shown above) then I expect it will makes its first Corrective Wave A at the 1.4776 level, where my Exit Target is placed, I then expect it to rise in it's Wave B pattern."

I have further evaluated the retracement level and placed my entry up from 1.5009 to 1.5018.

I had previously doubted the strength of this currency pair, but with the a small surge with the EUR/USD you could see EUR/CAD rise past our expectations a bit.

A more reasonable point for the EUR/CAD should be around 1.5042 which is close to one of your previous post, and right on your Stop of 1.5041.

Monarch

Thursday November 30 at 3:00 ET

Trade Signal #250A Sell AUD/USD at .7862

Stop is .7892

Target is .7600

Risk is 34 pips

Reward is 258 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

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Previous trade signal:

Wednesday November 22 at 8:00 ET
Trade Signal #250 Sell AUD/USD at .7736
Stop is .7754
Target is .7600
Risk is 22 pips
Reward is 132 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

"We are monitoring so many currency pairs that there is insufficient time to properly analyse some of them. As soon as I get on top of a few, another few slip through my fingers."

Itme,

Is it possible that your experiment is spread across too many pairs?

It must be frustrating to realise you,ve missed a really good trade but better to find 2 successes & miss 1 rather than trying all 3 with insufficient analysis & either enter too soon, get stopped out before an adjustment or lose the trade

I suggest that, on a temporary basis, you concentrate on less pairs (eliminating some of the exotic pairs with large spreads) until you have perfected your system then use the rest of the pairs to test the system

I still follow your thread with interest and demo trade selectively - still in profit!!

Best regards

This trade looks good for a go!
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Previous trade signals:

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8973 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Wednesday November 29 at 19:00 ET

The entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930 was missed by only 1 pip. Upon further analysis we feel that this was only the top of Wave 3, and that another rise is possible. Therefore adjust entry price to .8973, and stop to .9006.

Adjust entry price for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .8973

Adjust stop for Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD to .9006

The target stays the same, so the reward : risk ratio will be increased to 6.1 : 1
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Wednesday November 29 at 8:45 ET

The trade opportunity that has been predicted for some time is very near now:

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8930
Stop is .8961
Target is .8700
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 220 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.3 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
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Thursday November 23 at 21:00 ET

I will repost my previous AUD/CAD trade signal. This still looks like a fine opportunity to short at either .8880 or .8890 after a very long trend upwards that has been underway since September 28 and will have carried the price up 590 pips.
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Monday November 20 at 17:00 ET

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8890
Stop is .8925
Target is .8660
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 221 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

Note: the entry price should be reached in a few days, and as early as November 21.

itme,

Adjust stop on Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Thanks for your comments, Monarch,

I checked my EUR/CAD calculations and found an error. The correct high probability reversal value is actually 1.5023. So the stop should be higher, at over 1.5060. The current high is 1.5025

That move on the stop was perfect timing with the sharp jump there, it gave us 4 pips to spare and remained in the trade.


Monarch

AUD/USD predicted high is .7883

Stop should be set at .7893 or higher

The EUR/CAD has risen 991 pips since 9/07/2006. We believe that 1.5046 is the ultimate high of this trend.

A rise to 1.5100 is still possible, however.

Good suggestion,fxfrancais, thanks!

Thursday November 30 at 5:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity on Trade Signal #263 Sell NZD/USD at .6808

Our trade signal on NZD/USD was generated by the top of a Wave 3 we believe now, and the Wave 5 is now approaching the previous high. There will probably be a failed fifth wave resulting in another excellent sell opportunity at the previous high of about .6822 to .6830

The stop should be adjusted to .6856

p.s. - The price of .6830 was just met on NZD/USD at 8:03 ET on November 30, slightly higher than the previous high of November 28. The wave count looks more or less complete, so a low risk, high reward trade opportunity is available here.

p.p.s. - The price of .6846 was just reached following an impetus into the market by a poor USD Chicago PMI figure. This is a probable top. Due to the new data the stop should be adjusted to .6861

p.p.p.s - The recent high is .6859, just 2 pips short of our adjusted stop, adjusted due to the new factor introduced into the market of a poor Chicago PMI figure released at 10:00 ET this morning, on top of other bad news for the USD

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Trade Signal #263 Sell NZD/USD at .6808 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Wednesday November 29 at 10:45 ET

Trade Signal #263 Sell NZD/USD at .6808
Stop is .6841
Target is .5780
Risk is 38 pips
Reward is minimum 193 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: entry price was reached earlier before we noticed the opportunity, but our system puts the entry exactly at .6808.

Thursday November 30 at 6:45 ET

AUD/JPY has risen to the predicted high plus one pip, to 91.51, twice, and appears like it will rise again to 91.55 to 91.60. Then it should do as the prediction below suggests.


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AUD/JPY prediction for Wednesday November 29 at 19:30 ET

AUD/JPY will rise first to about 91.50 to complete an extended wave three, then descend in an A-B-C corrective wave (wave 4) to about 90.50 and then rise one more time (wave 5) to about 92.10, which will be a good low risk : high reward short trade opportunity.

The current price is 91.20

Thursday November 30 at 8:00 ET

Re-entry opportunity for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at price of 1.5050
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Previous trade signal:

Adjust Entry for Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD to 1.5005 (error with this entry price, later corrected to 1.5023)
Adjust Stop to 1.5065
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Wednesday November 29 at 9:45 ET
Trade Signal #262 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5000
Stop is 1.5036
Target is 1.4750
Risk is 46 pips
Reward is minimum 240 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 5.2 to 1

For research purposes only.