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(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

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Attachments: USDCAD trend reversal?
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USDCAD trend reversal?

Quoting DutchTrader
I still say we need a test of 1.0393
I agree! This same thing happened with the other USD pairs like GBP/USD...everyone thought it was gonna go down, but it broke the resistance and went to 2.0360 and even now many people are shorting. It's like that one article about SSI http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=38334

and I noticed that majority of the people really are longing USD/CAD even throughout this whole slump.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t.../posratios.png

Here is the current ratio for Long to Short....You'll see that U/C is well over 75%, E/U around 25%, G/U slightly more that 25%. Everyone is in favor of a strong USD but so far it hasn't happened. So I'm still going to short U/CAD
hi moforce, thanks share the infro.
over 75% people long u/c, why do u short it?
I will buy after long daly spike down, just my thoughts
Quoting yellowbrick
hi moforce, thanks share the infro.
over 75% people long u/c, why do u short it?
Most people are usually WRONG WRONG WRONG. 75% going long is a good indication of what not to do hehe ;p
double bootom on daily and 4h chart, also macd negtive divergence. maybe i join 75% to go long at monday if news not too bad in us.
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Dear traders,
I have seen several posts like today from marketwavez, and he was right each time.The Elliott Waves Method he is using seems to be powerfull.
So based on previous experience we should set our orders like he is suggesting.
Yes It will probably will hit the 1.0540-60 area but that's going against the trend, i think we will see consolidation after that


Kokan: maybe for a fee marketwaves will run a managed account for u, you won''t have to hunt for signals on the forum and the cash will be just pouring in
Quoting bobblong
Most people are usually WRONG WRONG WRONG. 75% going long is a good indication of what not to do hehe ;p
EXACTLY!!!! If you noticed the past few days ever since USD/CAD was going down most people were longing USD, but it kept going down....so I'm saying it will still test the 1.03XX area at the very least before going up like DutchTrader was saying
Quoting marketwavez
Usd/Cad - Update

--------------------------------------------
Now this is looking like a very strong Bullish Posture is in place
- especially coming off of theses Multi-Year Lows

Trading is a battle between Bulls and Bears
( most are aware of this )
But more importantly ,
Trading is a Battle between Technicals and Funny-mentals !
------------------------------------------------------------
Some times The Teckies move the market
Other times its The Funny's that move the market

So here we are

In the last 2 days - The Teckies seem to have alot to do with this movement...
Just proof that no one is always right lol....the day (or the day after) he posted this was when it went down but who knows maybe it will go up from here....all we really have are silly indicators and statistics so who really knows
About my posts......
I simply call them Potential Trade Set-ups.....They are not 100% reliable
and believe me when I tell you -I am no Holy Grail and have had my
share of misfortune just like anyone else posting here in this forum and
 there-for I am no Guru !......

Anyone looking at any post in this Form including the ones that I make are
to apply your own Trading Style and use sound Money Management Principles.

The Bottom line is ,
No-One is to follow anyone Blindly ! - If even follow them at all !

and besides ,
- Forums are just a place to exchange thoughts and Ideas
and maybe you can learn something along the way .

Marketwavez IS A VISUAL TRADER......
 - AN AN EXTREMELY VISUAL TRADER !
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Here is a very important fact ,

There is no such thing as a chart expert.........
We all get it wrong sometimes ...........
-Chart Patterns and Wave-counts in a given market is going to vary
based on who you are as a trader and will be a true reflection of
your trading style and trading experiences .

This Trading Style is not for everyone .......Why ?
-because we are not all the same ....... We are all built differently.
We all have different experiences and more importantly we all don't
see the charts or see the world the same way .

What you see here in my charts provided are a representation
of Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Retracements of what a given
market may be tracing out and are highly subjective ............

These Charts only give a Visual Premise
- So you see what is being talked about visually .
---------------------------------------------------------------------
They will be wrong at times
- just like your own analysis will be wrong at times
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Therefore , I am no different than you the reader ......

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
I leave you with my trading motto for now

Professionals are concerned with Risk to Reward and their Averages
-Everybody else is only concerned with being Right all the time !

Which one are you ? ..........
------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Good luck ,
and may the Charts take a like-ing to your observations ....
Quoting Kokan
Dear traders,
I have seen several posts like today from marketwavez, and he was right each time.The Elliott Waves Method he is using seems to be powerfull.
So based on previous experience we should set our orders like he is suggesting.
First of all, Kokan, if you're not marketwavez (unlikely), I have yet to see him make a correct call here lately. His posts overwhelmingly portray his long bias, and his premature double/triple bottom calling earlier this week ended up underwater.

marketwavez, do you honestly think we wouldn't recognize you? How many people underline their posts, let alone underline the EWT every time they mention it? You make a bad call on the "triple bottom", disappear, randomly show up with a new chart, and have some new account praising you & suggesting we trade like you? Give us all a break..
Quoting MoForce
EXACTLY!!!! If you noticed the past few days ever since USD/CAD was going down most people were longing USD, but it kept going down....
The past few days?? Try the past 4 months. Retail has been on the wrong side of this trade the entire time. The 80% figures show their pent-up frustration. The market has to completely wash out these undeterred longs before a real rally/reversal can begin. It make take parity before that happens..
Fundamentally CAD is strongly correlated with Oil.

Since Oil is running up so should CAD, i.e. USD/CAD should resume its trend down.
Quoting Trader KGB
The past few days?? Try the past 4 months. Retail has been on the wrong side of this trade the entire time. The 80% figures show their pent-up frustration. The market has to completely wash out these undeterred longs before a real rally/reversal can begin. It make take parity before that happens..
Do you think we will get to parity before this year is over ?
Quoting marketwavez
Do you think we will get to parity before this year is over ?
I'd say it depends on the USDX. Right now, the weak yen is the only factor keeping the USDX from breaking multi-decade lows (which the USD has already hit against EUR, AUD, CAD, NZD, GBP, etc). If we get some fundamental news out of Japan that could spur a breakdown of carry trades (similar to last summer), the pressure that will put on global USD selling will be enormous. The tidal wave of dollar selling will push all other currencies against the dollar further into record territories (esp. CAD). Yes, all the high interest rate currencies are leveraged against yen, but USD/JPY is easily the highest in nominal terms.

CAD may also find its way towards parity on its own inertia. After all, it's only 475 pips away. To put that into perspective, we're 625 pips lower than the level at which this thread was started! (1.10)

Didn't mean to come down so harsh in the previous post. Just be true to yourself and your own trading. There is no need for giant disclaimers, we all know who is ultimately responsible for our own trades. Speaking of EWT, the TA guy at DailyFX uses EWT and has been calling a reversal in USD/CAD for about a week now. I'm watching the USDX first & foremost before making any long USD trades. GL & GT
Quoting Trader KGB
The past few days?? Try the past 4 months. Retail has been on the wrong side of this trade the entire time. The 80% figures show their pent-up frustration. The market has to completely wash out these undeterred longs before a real rally/reversal can begin. It make take parity before that happens..
actually yeah thats probably it...I only checked these past few days. I guess we'll see where the CAD is headed in about 12 hours. Once the underrated longs get washed out...lol sucks for them once it turns around
Quoting Trader KGB
Speaking of EWT, the TA guy at DailyFX uses EWT and has been calling a reversal in USD/CAD for about a week now. I'm watching the USDX first & foremost before making any long USD trades. GL & GT
They've been calling a top in AUD, GBP, EUR, NZD, JPY, and CAD for months now, meanwhile all these pairs are hiting multi decade highs/lows versus the USD. Unreal.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting Trader KGB
First of all, Kokan, if you're not marketwavez (unlikely), I have yet to see him make a correct call here lately. His posts overwhelmingly portray his long bias, and his premature double/triple bottom calling earlier this week ended up underwater.

marketwavez, do you honestly think we wouldn't recognize you? How many people underline their posts, let alone underline the EWT every time they mention it? You make a bad call on the "triple bottom", disappear, randomly show up with a new chart, and have some new account praising you & suggesting we trade like you? Give us all a break..
Please forgive me if I offend any of you.

My English is not that good so if I seems to direct do not be angry.

I'm not marketwavez, I do not follow anyone, I'm new on forex, learning on harder (expensive) way to trade, reading most of the posts here, news and looking to my charts.

I did not say you must, but should set your orders.

This is not the only place marketwavez is posting his charts, and he make me interested in Eliot method with accuracy he got.

Once again please forgive if I offend any of you.
  •  Kokan
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Should I stay, or should I go | 73 Posts
Quoting bobblong
Yes It will probably will hit the 1.0540-60 area but that's going against the trend, i think we will see consolidation after that


Kokan: maybe for a fee marketwaves will run a managed account for u, you won''t have to hunt for signals on the forum and the cash will be just pouring in
Only my wife can mess with my account.
well anyway my charts are showing USD/CAD will be going down but we'll have to wait and see
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