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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #9,841
  • Jul 29, 2024 2:21am Jul 29, 2024 2:21am
Mmm, never been good at guessing.
  • #9,842
  • Jul 29, 2024 2:51am Jul 29, 2024 2:51am
I was long and made a small loss. I have now recovered it and I am 14 cents up for the start of the week. Whooppee!

Keep those losses small so as to easily recover them. There are plenty more trades to have a go at.

Whereas adding to a losing situation is a mugs game.
  • #9,843
  • Jul 29, 2024 3:14am Jul 29, 2024 3:14am
Daily divergence cross the EMA confirm. This has been in the back of my mind for days now.
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  • #9,844
  • Jul 29, 2024 3:16am Jul 29, 2024 3:16am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Daily divergence cross the EMA confirm. This has been in the back of my mind for days now. {image}
Yep and this RSI bear div on the 5min just paid me 35pipas and still holding it. Stop at +20 pips
  • #9,845
  • Jul 29, 2024 3:19am Jul 29, 2024 3:19am
Closed for 30 pips price looks too oversold to me.
  • #9,846
  • Jul 30, 2024 12:22am Jul 30, 2024 12:22am
Why did it look oversold yesterday...

Look at the 5 min chart and see the div at the average swing low level. A good place to exit methinks.
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There were three good entries on this trade, I took the third.

What we look for is the EMA direction and whether or not we are trading above or below it. I jumped the gun and went long at 1, closed at 2 and changed direction to short to get my money back. Then at 3 made a nice 30 pips.
  • #9,847
  • Jul 30, 2024 12:25am Jul 30, 2024 12:25am
If you guys show the trade and reasons you took them then perhaps we can solve your losing problems.
  • #9,848
  • Jul 31, 2024 1:37pm Jul 31, 2024 1:37pm
Been busy at work of late but got a trade on today. M5 bear divergence trade at our trading time. went short but got taken out at the retest for a couple pips.
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  • #9,849
  • Aug 1, 2024 2:13pm Aug 1, 2024 2:13pm
More luckier today for +57
M15 Bear divergence and late entry. Higher TF all showing shorts.
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  • #9,850
  • Aug 2, 2024 4:03am Aug 2, 2024 4:03am
GU daily chart. All that messing about on the daily EMA and we finally have a decision to go south. Some good short trades yesterday and now we are sitting on the 50% of the ABCD deciding whether to continue down to the target or go long. Not seeing any divergence yet on the daily other than the ABCD so gonna check the lower TF now. We have H4 and H1 divergence showing so will wait for a bit and watch. No M15 bull support yet
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  • #9,851
  • Aug 2, 2024 7:54am Aug 2, 2024 7:54am
Nice +40 today. Probably news spike.
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  • #9,852
  • Aug 12, 2024 10:55am Aug 12, 2024 10:55am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
Luckily GU doesn't trend that often which seems to be my downfall of late. Demo account is still on the up tho. {image}
nice one. Is it manual or by EA?
  • #9,853
  • Aug 12, 2024 4:20pm Aug 12, 2024 4:20pm
Quoting phrixusong
{quote} nice one. Is it manual or by EA?
Manual trading on this demo account my friend. Currently having issues with a lack of screen time at LO and lots of ranging.
Also have a Bot running on a couple other demo accounts and DD is the issue on those.

A
  • #9,854
  • Aug 13, 2024 2:12am Aug 13, 2024 2:12am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Manual trading on this demo account my friend. Currently having issues with a lack of screen time at LO and lots of ranging. Also have a Bot running on a couple other demo accounts and DD is the issue on those. A
I would imagine this is a problem for many thousands of people, but I have never found a problem where a solution cannot be found. I could write a whole book based upon this one sentence, but let's not hey!

The trouble is I cannot solve for X because I am not privy to the aspects involved nor would I expect people to share. To try and solve this many make attempts to write a code to cater for their absence. Consider how many really smart people there are in this world and the duration of time past, this has never happened else one person would own the whole pot. It is for this simple reason I would dismiss any idea of trying to code a winning solution.

So, what would I do? Obviously, I cannot be looking at the charts when I wish so I would have to dismiss the lower time frames and concentrate on the higher such as the daily. This would mean waiting days for a result either win or loss but at least I am trading and hopefully making gains for later down the track. Now because of the time durations I would probably look for a 2%-loss and a 4%-win ratio. If I take trades that win more times than they lose together with this ratio of win/losses, then I should be mathematically ahead of the game.

To me this is the most important aspect of trading... Always keep the mathematics in your Favour.

Let the acorn grow at its own speed.
  • #9,855
  • Aug 13, 2024 3:27am Aug 13, 2024 3:27am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I would imagine this is a problem for many thousands of people, but I have never found a problem where a solution cannot be found. I could write a whole book based upon this one sentence, but let's not hey! The trouble is I cannot solve for X because I am not privy to the aspects involved nor would I expect people to share. To try and solve this many make attempts to write a code to cater for their absence. Consider how many really smart people there are in this world and the duration of time past, this has never happened else one person...
lol, Below may works better than mathematics, as often we trade like gambling and can't always wait weeks to win the trades
Free download of the 'iMA iStdDev' expert by 'barabashkakvn' for MetaTrader 5 in the MQL5 Code Base, 2019.02.07
  • #9,856
  • Aug 13, 2024 4:32am Aug 13, 2024 4:32am
Quoting phrixusong
{quote} lol, Below may works better than mathematics, as often we trade like gambling and can't always wait weeks to win the trades Free download of the 'iMA iStdDev' expert by 'barabashkakvn' for MetaTrader 5 in the MQL5 Code Base, 2019.02.07
I think you have completely missed the point here. In a trending market such as the example shows it is difficult not to make a profit. However, how did this bot know a trend was on, it could simply have ranged up and down for some time costing quite a lot in lost deals. I have seen many times when a trend seems to be on when suddenly the market changes direction in a hurry long before the EMA can react. Suddenly all those shorts become losers.

Still if it works for you then go for it.
  • #9,857
  • Aug 13, 2024 4:56am Aug 13, 2024 4:56am
Then we have to consider what is a trend trade anyway.

Look at this daily chart and see all the trades taken are counter trend trades of which only one was a loser (if the stop wasn't moved)
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Now we with the time and opportunity on our hands can trade the same thing at the lower time frames using this as the bias for direction and target.
  • #9,858
  • Aug 13, 2024 5:28am Aug 13, 2024 5:28am
So, this becomes my first rule of divs...

1) The div will usually return the price to the EMA.
It is not written in stone so we must back up the trade by moving the stop to BE for protection.

A more difficult trade is the bounce off the EMA ( a ZOO point) and this brings up the second rule of divs.

2) If the div does not cross and find support it will test for a HH. (The converse applies)
If it, then follows that price does not make the HH then we are probably looking at a roll-over of price action in which case our stop is relied upon the stop losses.

By the way that loser was an RSI div not a conventional one. This brings me to a 3rd rule.

3) Price will most likely come back to test a previous divergence.
This is handy to know because it means we can trade out of a losing trade, but I don't recommend the novice trying this. Better to stop out and re-enter later.
See on the chart above how that loser was re-tested.

Nuf said for the day hey! Don't take my word for it just look at the chart and test for yourself.
  • #9,859
  • Aug 13, 2024 5:36am Aug 13, 2024 5:36am
Quoting Nala66
So, this becomes my first rule of divs... 1) The div will usually return the price to the EMA. It is not written in stone so we must back up the trade by moving the stop to BE for protection. A more difficult trade is the bounce off the EMA ( a ZOO point) and this brings up the second rule of divs. 2) If the div does not cross and find support it will test for a HH. (The converse applies) If it, then follows that price does not make the HH then we are probably looking at a roll-over of price action in which case our stop is relied upon the stop...
Hey Al,
what sort of SL pips are we talking on the daily charts? Can’t be 20

A
  • #9,860
  • Aug 13, 2024 8:08am Aug 13, 2024 8:08am
Quoting 40PipsAlan
{quote} Hey Al, what sort of SL pips are we talking on the daily charts? Can’t be 20 A
In all cases it is 50% of the target price. If we are looking at a potential target of 150 pips and this equals 4% then our initial risk is 75 pips i.e. 2%.

Now this does not have to be set in stone since we can always add to a winning trade and adjust the stop accordingly. Not only this but if the price does not stop at the EMA ZOO point but continues then we are in for a heck of a good profit. However, this would entail being there and monitoring the trade which wrecks our objective.
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