Volume case study during News

here are the GBP charts.
Retail sales shows us cumulative selling during the spike. This is very interesting and something worth noting is that one of the data providers came out early with the wrong US retail sales data that would have triggered a sell. Ha. Very interesting. The futures markets see everything. In spot forex you didn't see this activity because you are looking at what the broker wants you to see. In a central marketplace where there is no room for error you see all the transactions in real time. You can even go back in the transactions and see where everyone was filled and at what volume. There are massive differences in legitimacy of futures vs forex. As long as you are exploiting the right instruments you are going to make money.
Post spike we see buyers enter aggressively and take the pair to daily highs.

9:00am USDConsumer Sentiment (p) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 92.4 86.0 85.3


Michigan Sentiment stirred the market during it's typical leaked release. We saw prices shooting down before anyone had the number which typically ignites panic so we see a couple dojis during confusion and big volume as traders offset their fundamental positions. Post spike buyers gradually entered the GBP with some ambiguous selling that found it's way down to the VWAP for consolidation prior to gaining enough bulls to push back up into another bout of consolidation. During this subsequent consolidation we see net selling indicating we should only be interested in a sell and ignore any buy breakouts unless accompanied by large buying volume.

Merlin,
Is there any chance we can delete all posts on this thread other than the Case Study posts? This post included?
I would like to use this as a Case Study to show volume and price action during eco releases for months to come. Only good will come of this.

"The world is conspiring to help me!"
"The forex market is conspiring to make me rich!"

7:30am USD Trade Balance http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif -60.0B -60.0B -58.7Bhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif

This report ended up being a lackluster doji but as you see net buying during the nonexistant spike followed by continuation buying perhaps after the downward revision data soaked in.
Post news we see a very brief consolidation ruled by sellers and upon breakout was weakly contested by few buyers.

7:30am CAD Trade Balance 5.9B 5.5B 5.9B


CAD trade balance was a good trade if you were in the markets. The continuation made a lot of people money I suspect.
As we see prior to the spike there are plenty of longs in the market, but at release there is a void of traders most likely due to the small deviation from expectation. Sometimes this is just what the pip doctor ordered as continuations are more common on unnoticed releases or pairs for that matter. While the cat's away the pips will play.
Subsequently we see solid buying during consolidation followed by large buying on breakout and continuation again. $ Prices continued to trend for the majority of the day.

3:30am GBPTrade Balance http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif-6.3B
-6.6B-6.9Bhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif


GBP trade balance moved very quickly on light volume. Sellers moved in quickly to form consolidation around the daily VWAP. Consolidation maintained for for about 4 hours before strong buyers entered with some obvious pressure. There were talks of subprime worries during US session. Much of the subprime fiasco seems to be priced into the market by now. The bulk of defaults will hit in the next two years but should not be solely responsible for turning the markets as they should be worth 50bio stretched out over 2 years. That is my guesstimate. I'm not paid for that it's just my preogative.

3:30am GBPCPI y/y http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif2.4%
2.3%2.5%

UK CPI. As we see in the hour leading into the CPI release there are plenty of buyers entering the market. In our chat room I made a call to go long after retracement if this came out higher than expected. As you can see that worked out very well. We had a great retrace after the spike to the VWAP and then continued higher on solid buying for hours.

7:30am USDPPI m/mhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif-0.2%
0.2%0.9%

7:30am USDCore PPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif0.3%
0.2%0.2%

US PPI is a great trade to avoid. Spreads go crazy and we see here proof that not many people trade it. Coming into the release we still have plenty of buyers so I would say go long on the retrace near lows. As you can see the spike mainly went down but but was largely undecided on the direction. The news traders were able to make new lows but once consolidation set in we knew the new direction would be up based on volume. Sure enough we see a great breakout opp long to the daily high where we encountered heavy resistance resulting in ranging for the remainder of the day.

7:30am USDCore CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif0.2% 0.2% 0.1%


US CPI lead in with consistent selling ahead of news. Traders were really expecting a strong USD report as we can see in the steady red volume flowing down hill one hour before news.
I made the mistake of calling a short for the whole day. "A bit over-zealous if you will." As you can see after the release we did have a great short opp which played out in 14 minutes for 28 pips max. I anticipated it would continue down all day. Boy was I wrong. Traders took their money on the VWAP and ran for the doors. Ben was speaking today and no one was interested in holding positions through his testimony. We should see similar movements tomorrow during his second day at the House. I guess I'll be looking for USD weakness tomorrow during his speech. Then we have FOMC minutes which will stir up a hornets nest worse than what we saw today.

6:00am CADCore CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif0.0% 0.1%0.3%


Since I'm using futures to chart you'll see CAD go down when USDCAD went up. Sorry for the confusion.
Leading into the CAD CPI you kinda see net selling but it's not something I would bet the farm on. Matter of fact there is plenty of buying in there. At this point I think I shut my mouth regarding post news speculation. Dispensing disinformation like someone else in this thread is actually a sin according to the bible and creates a negative sum game for those of us reading this case study. So rather than increase friction I sat back and watched the candles unfold. On a significant deviation we saw a modest move. Possibly because large specs did not know which way to play. You come to your own conclusion.

3:30am GBPRetail Sales m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif0.2%0.3%0.4%

UK Retail Sales is typically a big moving report. Today we see a deviation of .1 worse for UK and a selloff during the spike. The spike looks rather anemic in volume. That could be because the majority of players were already short ahead of the release and it only took a few clicks to clear the bid to gap down 35 pips. Today was a clear signal to get short after the spike. I made no mistake about that fact in the chat room today. The way the volume was setup I knew there would be a run at new lows on a down spike and a major retracement off highs from an up spike. What we saw was about a 30% retracement in 1.5 minutes up after the spike followed by steady selling for 6 hours until buyers decided to change momentum to long. So far all these setups that show a signal have done what they were supposed to do.
[hypothetical] If we see a big buy deviation against short volume the market might run against us and make new highs for a few minutes, but rest assured the ones that move the market are waiting like skilled hunters in the brush. New highs will be small gains against the large specs that protect their positions and convince the market to meet them much lower. For these players to offset their positions will take a large amount of liquidity so we can expect a move back down to pre release prices where many small specs consider a short entry giving large specs an exit to reduce exposure.

My favorite thread in a long time- thanks for your efforts!
-Taters

3:30am GBPGDP q/q (p) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif0.8%0.7%0.7%

Thanks, Taters.

A wise man will hear, and will increase learning; and a man of

understanding shall attain unto wise counsels.

This volume case study business is because smarter people than I do it. I'm trying to learn. If this continues to be very successful I'll start a very cheap signal service and we can all make money on it. For proof thus far I've done live calls in the Muse room. I'm not going back in retrospect to cherry pick anything. This is all done in real time.

UK GDP was preceded by steady buying pressure for one hour prior to release. The call was made to go long after retracement if spike went long. At this point there is no other entry strategy and calls are only made to legitimize the real time effort. None yet have been wrong regarding new highs/lows after spike.

I love your thread but I've seen one too many kicked out of Forexfactory becuse they were proposing the same thing and trying to promote paid services. This is a money free website !!! Are all your efforts by posting charts here are to cinvince us to join your paid service ???

Is this thread still going????