Market outlook by me

Gold prices yesterday fell to a low of $2350 from a high of $2390 drawing a bearish candlestick. Gold prices failed to continue their upward trend and returned to their range.

Post-NFP Gold Prices last Friday, gold prices fell to a low of $2350 then jumped to $2392. The price is now back to the $2350 range which may be the current support zone.

Today Jerome Powell will testify in Washington DC on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee. Next, there is Yellen Speaks and FOMC member Bowman Speaks.

However, the market will probably respond more to Powell's testimony, which is considered more profitable for the market because of his important role. Jerome Powell is the head of the central bank, which controls short-term interest rates, he has more influence over the value of the country's currency than anyone else.

In his testimony, Powell will give 2 testimonies by reading previously prepared statements and answering questions without a script where he will answer unknown questions. So there may be moments of unexpected questions that get answers for economic policy in the future. This moment may provide subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Silver prices were stable in the range of price levels 30-31 yesterday. Price draws a doji candlestick with wicks at the top and bottom of the candlestick reflecting market indecision.

Prices are consolidating near the upper band line, after last weekend silver prices jumped to 31,489. However, Silver failed to continue its rise and fell again to the lowest level of 30,424.

A symmetrical triangle pattern appears which reflects degraded buyers and sellers. The market may still be waiting for Fed Chair Powell to testify. Powell will testify on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.

According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there are increasing investor expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates in September. Although lawmakers are pressuring Powell to lower interest rates, Powell will likely keep rates high for a longer time. The Fed is predicted to cut interest rates in September.

Silver has a positive correlation with gold, often when gold rises, silver also rises, but sometimes there are different moving average anomalies between gold and silver. Silver is used in industries that influence demand such as electronics and solar energy

The Silver price moves to form a symmetrical triangle pattern in D1, this allows for a trend continuation scenario. The upper band line is slightly expanding, indicating rising volatility.

Yesterday the price of GBPUSD rose to the highest level of 1.28480 from the lowest level of 1.27817. Price drew a long-bodied bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.

Powell's statement may have pushed the USD slightly lower amid the US economy which is considered to be slowing, thereby increasing speculation about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates sooner.

Today investors' focus may be on CPI data and Jobless Claims. Core CPI Ex Food and Energy is expected at 0.2% from previous data of 0.2%. The CPI price of goods and services consumers purchase is expected at 0.1% from the previous 0.0%. CPI Changes in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers from year to year are expected at 3.1% from previous data of 3.3%.

The next economic calendar's Unemployment Claims are expected at 236k from the previous 238k. Investors may respond after the release of the actual news data.

GBPUSD at the time of writing is up at 1.28657, the Bollinger band is expanding reflecting the market may be increasing volatility, the price forming a bullish candlestick.

Gold prices soared on Thursday from a low of $2370 to a high of $2424. The price drew a long body bullish candlestick with almost no shadow.
The soaring price of gold was mostly caused by the release of US CPI data which showed a slowdown in the US economy. The actual data was smaller than estimates, causing the USD to weaken.

According to Forexfactory, Core CPI fell 0.1% from the previous data of 0.2% and forecast of 0.2%. Monthly CPI fell by a negative value of -1% from previous data of 0.0% and forecast of 0.1%. Annual CPI fell 3.0% from 3.3% previous and 3.1% forecast.

Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims data fell by 222 thousand from the previous data of 239 thousand and the estimate of 236 thousand.

Slowing US economic data could increase speculation regarding the Fed's interest rate cut. However, it appears that Powell is trying to act cautiously despite pressure from lawmakers. The Fed will probably lower interest rates in September.

Addressing lawmakers, he said he would wait until the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, falls below the Fed's target before taking action. This increases speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates sooner if the barometer is met. CME's FedWatch tool continues to show the Fed's probability increasing to 91.2%.

Apart from US economic data, the soaring gold price could also be caused by central bank purchases worldwide, although there is news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) stopped buying gold for two consecutive months in June.

Currently, the market is still waiting for the monthly CPI and monthly PPI core data as well as Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which may be able to drive USD prices that could impact Gold's price.

This week the British pound sterling seems to be one of the stronger currencies. This can be seen from GBPUSD soaring and EURGBP falling.

EURGBP last Friday extended its downward streak and drew a long body bearish candlestick with a small shadow on the top candle. Price reached a low of 0.83911 from a high of 0.84210.

The strengthening of the Pound Sterling is thought to be due to the stable political conditions in England. the direct victory of Keir Starmer's Labor Party in the parliamentary elections, which resulted in the most stable political conditions in the United Kingdom (UK).

UK GDP data also shows the country's economic performance experiencing unexpected growth which reduces the possibility of a BoE interest rate cut in August.

According to Forexfactory data, UK GDP rose 0.4% from a forecast of 0.2% and previous 0.0%. Rising GDP growth provided fuel for the strengthening of the GBP.

However, there are other concerns about high service prices and rising wages, said Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill.

GBPUSD at the market opening there was a gap down which was visible in the H1 timeframe, usually, the price will close the gap in the same week. Last week the GBPUSD price trend increased significantly since July 2

Elsewhere, gold prices uncertainty ahead of the release of the New York Manufacturing Index and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC. Last week the price of gold drew a bearish candlestick with a long wick at the bottom of the candle, reflecting the price decline due to high buyer pressure so the wick was longer than the body of the candle.

Recently, the US was shocked by the news that the Trump campaign team experienced a shooting incident that caused Trump's right ear to bleed and killed a spectator. The shooter was shot dead by the Secret Service.

Today's market focus is waiting for the release of the New York Manufacturing Index, which is an important economic indicator that surveys 200 manufacturing companies in New York state to measure the relative level of general business conditions. The market may respond to the actual value if greater than the forecast could lead the USD to strengthen, according to Forexfactory, forecast data shows -5.5%, with the previous revision -6.0%. A New York Manufacturing Index value above 0.0 indicates a good improving economy, below 0.0 means worse economic growth.

If later release news actual data greater than forecast may be good for the USD. Further. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's next speech at the Economic Club of Washington DC also attracts investors' attention in hopes that audience questions will receive hawkish or dovish answers regarding interest rate policy.

Ahead of today's inflation data, USDCAD is trying to continue the rise. USDCAD Yesterday drew a long-body bullish candlestick with a slightly long shadow at the bottom of the candlestick and a short shadow at the top of the candlestick. The price crossed the middle band line from the downside reflecting a strong uptrend.

Referring to price history, USDCAD has been trading in the range of low 1.35894 to high 1.37909 since May 12. Looking at the shape of the W1 candlestick, five weeks USDCAD closed with a bearish candlestick even though the price moved in a range.

Earlier this week USDCAD tried to rise and draw a bullish candlestick, but investors may be anticipating today's important news, Canadian CPI, and US retail sales.
Based on Forexfactory data, Canada's CPI is forecast at 0.1% from the previous data revision of 0.6%, while the year-on-year medium CPI is forecast at 2.7% from the previous data revision of 2.8%. If the actual data is greater than the forecast usually has a good impact on CAD.

Today's price movements may fluctuate greatly because apart from Canadian CPI data, US retail sales data excluding automotive will also be released, which is forecast 0.1% from the previous data revision of -0.1%, and changes in total retail sales. sales value at the retail level is forecast at -0.3% with previous data revision of 0.1%.