Disliked
I'm not soliciting work, selling a system or otherwise trolling for customers, but if you happen to have a large wad of cash just burning a hole in your pocket then maybe we should talk.Ignored
lets develop a system which is very very simple but effective. 7 replies
How To Develop Winning Automated Trading Systems 15 replies
Change a losing system into a Winning system 68 replies
Develop a System that Fits You, by Dr Van K. Tharp 3 replies
Disliked
I'm not soliciting work, selling a system or otherwise trolling for customers, but if you happen to have a large wad of cash just burning a hole in your pocket then maybe we should talk.Ignored
DislikedWith all due respect, everything I've read in this thread mirrors anything I've read in systems for sale...Ignored
DislikedFXEZ
I have developed a breakout strategy that won 87% and for the testing period never had a losing streak of more than 3 in a row. But use a stop 3 x the PT. It does come out profitable over the tested time but due to the 3x larger stop is not a major winner. Am I going of the tracks when using an adapted martingale type MM to up the profitability for this strategy. I am allowing for a straight 6 losers. ie: The total lots to trades 6 straight losers still fall within my risk% for the said account.
More specific:
686 trades = 601 winner + 85 losers
of the 85 losers only had 7 times 3 in a row.
+3430 pips up with adapted martingale type MM or
3005 - 1275 = +1730 taking straight loses.
I have tried smaller stop or larger TP and both decrease profitability.
Am I on the wrong tracks.Ignored
DislikedThe second step is in clarifying what you want. Once you have a broad idea of what you want, it is time to refine the idea down and create an outline and develop an image of what the system might look like.
What markets will this system trade? What timeframes will be used or favored? How many trades will the system make and in what space of time? Will the system follow the trend or trade against the trend? Will the system be a stop and reverse system, a setup, stop, target system, or a grid type system? There are lots of ways to make a profitable trading system.
For me I’m looking to develop trend following systems. So I want to focus on the most trendy trading instruments. This means focusing on the currency pairs that carry traders focus on. The reason for this is that the carry trade creates an underlying fundamental reason for the currency to trend. This is a sort of bias that exists in the direction of the carry trade, and this natural bias is an inefficiency that I can exploit in developing my trading system.
I favor high frequency trading systems and all things being equal, shorter timeframes with more trades. I like high frequency trading systems because I’m more short term oriented, and I like instant feedback, smaller drawdowns, and faster equity increases from “banking” a trade. I prefer a SAR method, where longs are closed out by initiating shorts. I also prefer focusing on times of day when the markets are most active. In the latest system that I’m working on, I tend to focus on a 10 hour block of time that coincides with the most active trading. I realize that in a high-frequency trading system volatility is an ally and lack of activity is an enemy.
Because I’m focusing on high frequency trading systems, it makes no sense for me to focus my time testing longer term data. My testing is best when it is suited to the timeframes that I’m focusing on.
Furthermore, because I’m focusing on trend trading, I’m not keen on most indicators including MACD, RSI, Stochastic, etc., which actually are measures of momentum and not of trending. The moving averages aren’t my favorite either because they lag significantly, which is a bad thing when trying to catch trends using shorter timeframes.
Because I’m a trend trader I’m focusing primarily on breakouts leading to continuation. When the opposite breakout definition is reached, the position reverses. Although I prefer high win rate systems over low win rate systems (due to the smaller drawdowns), my experience has shown that lower win rate systems tend to be more robust, and often more profitable. So I’m happy trading a system that has a 40-60% win rate.Ignored
DislikedHi,
May I know if you are writing this alongside developing your winning system or if you've already developed a winning system and now share your experience so ppl can learn from you?Ignored
DislikedBless your heart Mr. cookie monster, I do believe that's your second consecutive off-topic post in this thread. If I didn't know better I'd think you're attempting to sprinkle cookie crumbs all over this thread. Pretty clever trolling for someone who confuses easily.Ignored
DislikedWhich = 50% Win/Loss Ratio.
Therefore, on your defined prinicipal.... I have 2 brilliant systems for you...
1) eenie, meenie, miney, mo.......
2) Flip a coin. Heads=BUY, Tails=SellIgnored
DislikedWhich = 50% Win/Loss Ratio.
Therefore, on your defined prinicipal.... I have 2 brilliant systems for you...
1) eenie, meenie, miney, mo.......
2) Flip a coin. Heads=BUY, Tails=SellIgnored
DislikedGreat question. Over the past years that I've been involved in trading and with forex I've independently developed a few systems that I consider good with positive expectancies. I'm in process of system development of a new system right now and as I've been going through the process over the past few months, I wanted to record and share some of my insights and thoughts on the process. I'm motivated to do this partially for myself so that I can organize and remember my methodology by expressing it, and partially so others may look over my shoulder and get an insight into what I'm doing and to offer their own insights and feedback.
And in case anyone is wondering, no this thread isn't a buildup to a system sale or some kind of underhanded come-on. I've thought about organizing this thread into an ebook on system development that would be given away for free and may do that depending on how things develop and whether I want to put the time in to do that or not.Ignored
DislikedThe key to making money trading is simple.. cut your losses and let your winners ride.. As long as your winners (or for northpro's sake "earnings) are bigger than your losses you can win 3 out of every 10 times and still make money... In fact most trend followers are only correct about 30% of the time.
and yes, eenie, meenie, miney, mo does work.. A famous trader did an experiment once to prove that all you must do is cut your losses and let your winners ride. He used a coin flip to enter the market.. heads long, tails short.. he traded it in ten markets simultaneously and just used a strategic exit in which he could keep his losses small and it MADE MONEY! crazy, I know. Most people spend their whole life trying to create the perfect entry strategy when it is one of the least important aspects of a trade plan.Ignored
DislikedI just wanted you to help me get a grip on your concepts, I mean, they almost seemed to have some order of intelligence for a while.
Not only do you have over 10 years of experience, with the cognitive skills of a novice, but you presume to know my own disposition?
You must be a speculative trader right? :d
So now that I've had my hand slapped by an 'expert', I'll be getting off this futile philosophical roundabout and back to the real world of winning real money.
How you like them apples?Ignored
Dislikedi am just going to add a strategy to your system that helped me a lot lately.
i used to be the one who was always waiting for that ultimate breakout where i would have the right trade (buy/sell) and the market would break out in my favour... but that ended up being a crash.
i realized that after you have a functioning system, the next step is your limits.
i came up with a personal "monthly gain calendar".
i broke down a month in 16 - 20 business days where for each day i have a set profit percentage from overall balance for that day.
for example.
i have a 5% gain for each bizday of the month.
if one starts with $500, the first day would have a gain limit of $25.
those $25 gain entirely depends on account type and currency dealt with.
its not a defenit PIP gain limit per day but its just an amount. PIPs amount to equal the daily gain limit would vary on account type.
if on first day the daily limit is achieved, one would close the trade. the equaty would be $525, therefore, the next day limit would be greater than $25 because the balance is now $525.
so one would have a trade open until his daily gain limit is achieved.
if you do the math, and calculate each day's predicted gain plus that day's equaty, after several months one will be very surprized by the numbers revealed.
500 + 5% (25) = 525
525 + 5% (26.25) = 551
551 + 5% (27.5) = 578
and so on.
after i reached a comfortable equaty limit (ie $10,000) , the daily gain is set a side or withdrawn.
thats my method that helped me.
comment freely.Ignored
DislikedWhich = 50% Win/Loss Ratio.
Therefore, on your defined prinicipal.... I have 2 brilliant systems for you...
1) eenie, meenie, miney, mo.......
2) Flip a coin. Heads=BUY, Tails=SellIgnored
DislikedI'm in a similar situation and gradually settling down to a hedge system, a carry trade system and a mtf system. I find that THE MOST IMPORTANT thing in trading is actually money management, things like how many lots to trade, how much risk to bear, when to cut loss and take profit. I hope to contribute more to your thread as i'm making more pips in running these systemsIgnored
DislikedAppreciate sharing your system. It sounds like a money management based system. Do you take losses also, or do you just wait for your open positions to hit the target? If you do take losses, this sounds like a concept I've seen elsewhere where you allow your account equity to drive the closure of positions when you reach new equity highs. It's actually a very good concept if it is combined with the right kind of system.Ignored