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Scalping System by Machine

  • #161
  • Jul 1, 2024 12:08pm Jul 1, 2024 12:08pm
Quoting RoboSeer
{quote} Thanks for the backtest report! Did you run the test on M1 or M5? With or without RSI (35-65%) filter? (Applying the RSI filter may protect from buying into resistance and selling into strength.)
Tested on M5, no RSI.

Will test again with RSI, thanks!
  • #162
  • Jul 1, 2024 12:09pm Jul 1, 2024 12:09pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} Nice, sounds about right. I average 60% but that's with some discretion applied to the system through price action. As with anything in life I think it comes down Balance. A beautiful blend of discretion, subjectivity, objectivity and mechanics. I've given some examples about how I use discretional methods like price action to help filter entries. There's no magic button, it's all common sense. Follow market structure, observe trend lines, monitor volume, pay attention to news, look for liquidity, watch for breakouts, check technical ratings,...
thanks for the color!
  • #163
  • Jul 1, 2024 12:12pm Jul 1, 2024 12:12pm
Quoting m618
{quote} thanks for the color!
Thanks for your hard work! Keep us updated with your results
  • #164
  • Jul 1, 2024 12:18pm Jul 1, 2024 12:18pm
Nice, clear-cut (no DD), "kill zone" trade on 6E (EURUSD futures):
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  • #165
  • Jul 1, 2024 12:25pm Jul 1, 2024 12:25pm
Quoting RoboSeer
Nice, clear-cut (no DD), "kill zone" trade on 6E (EURUSD futures): {image}
Nice one, that's a true scalp right there. Out in the nick of time, was definitely looking bearish.
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  • #166
  • Jul 1, 2024 6:49pm Jul 1, 2024 6:49pm
Observations of the most recent wins and losses on EURUSD:

1. Almost all trades are winners IF the color of the trigger candle (i.e., the one with a higher volume) and the subsequent candles are the same (or a doji closing in the direction of the trade).
2. If the color of ANY subsequent candle is different from the color of the trigger candle (or a doji closing in the opposite direction of the trade), almost all trades are losers.

Hypothesis: If the color of ANY subsequent candle is different from the color of the trigger candle (or a subsequent candle is a doji closing in the opposite direction) AND these trades are closed out when the color change is finalized (or when an opposite direction doji is formed), then most losses can be minimized usually to less than half.

This rule would have minimized two of the three losses from last Friday:
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  • #167
  • Edited 3:14am Jul 2, 2024 2:27am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting RoboSeer
Observations of the most recent wins and losses on EURUSD: 1. Almost all trades are winners IF the color of the trigger candle (i.e., the one with a higher volume) and the subsequent candles are the same (or a doji closing in the direction of the trade). 2. If the color of ANY subsequent candle is different from the color of the trigger candle (or a doji closing in the opposite direction of the trade), almost all trades are losers. Hypothesis: If the color of ANY subsequent candle is different from the color of the trigger candle (or a subsequent...
Hi RS, over how many trades did you observe this pattern?

Can you also elaborate on where the entry and exit points are in your chart?

Some of the entry points don't seem to correspond to an entry setup per the system.
  • #168
  • Jul 2, 2024 4:49am Jul 2, 2024 4:49am
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} With so many opportunities in the market with this system , let’s try and choose the best setups possible. No reason to trade anything not in its appropriate breakout phase … Also avoid large wick candles as this can imply some manipulation in the market. We have to make this as easy for us as possible
For a strong up candle that closes in the top 25%, what do you consider the maximum allowed size of the lower wick, as % of the candle's high low range?

Bing Copilot AI search says 20% of the range is the max size for the lower wick.

What do you all use as your rule of thumb?
  • #169
  • Jul 2, 2024 8:57am Jul 2, 2024 8:57am
Quoting BlueSky99
{quote} Hi RS, over how many trades did you observe this pattern? Can you also elaborate on where the entry and exit points are in your chart? Some of the entry points don't seem to correspond to an entry setup per the system.
I have to admit that I have not observed a statistically significant number of trades. It can be very challenging to manually conduct statistically reliable research, and a hypothesis testing EA would be very useful for testing all the mentioned filters in this thread (incl. the RSI filter).

The entry prices of the depicted trades in my screenshots are always the closing prices of the trigger candles. For better visualization, the trade arrows start on the trigger candle (closing price) or the following candle (open price), which prices are usually identical.
  • #170
  • Edited 4:19pm Jul 2, 2024 9:42am | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting RoboSeer
{quote} I have to admit that I have not observed a statistically significant number of trades. It can be very challenging to manually conduct statistically reliable research, and a hypothesis testing EA would be very useful for testing all the mentioned filters in this thread (incl. the RSI filter). The entry prices of the depicted trades in my screenshots are always the closing prices of the trigger candles. For better visualization, the trade arrows start on the trigger candle (closing price) or the following candle (open price), which prices...
Thanks for clarifying.

The setup candles in your examples don't look particularly "strong" to me.

What's everyone's definition of a "strong" candle?

For me a strong up candle has a body size larger than most of that candles precede it, with a lower wick that's at most 20% of the range of the entire candle.
  • #171
  • Jul 2, 2024 9:45am Jul 2, 2024 9:45am
+1R

Perfect Setup
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  • #172
  • Jul 2, 2024 11:32am Jul 2, 2024 11:32am
Quoting MachineLearn
+1R Perfect Setup {image}
The setup is at 9:20 AM NY time, right?

That was just 10 minutes before Fed Chair Powell's speech.

What's your take on trading before red folder news like this?
  • #173
  • Jul 2, 2024 5:00pm Jul 2, 2024 5:00pm
Quoting MachineLearn
+1R Perfect Setup {image}
I would not have traded this setup on 6E (EURUSD futures) because the volume decreased with the green candle. The difference could be due to the differences in volumes between the EURUSD spot and futures markets and also because Forex brokers cannot show centralized exchange traded volumes (i.e., they can only show the volumes traded through them).

Also, the RSI being over 65% would have deterred me from entering this trade. However, it turned out to be a profitable one.
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  • #174
  • Jul 2, 2024 5:01pm Jul 2, 2024 5:01pm
Quoting BlueSky99
{quote} The setup is at 9:20 AM NY time, right? That was just 10 minutes before Fed Chair Powell's speech. What's your take on trading before red folder news like this?
In and out
  • #175
  • Edited 6:15pm Jul 2, 2024 5:06pm | Edited 6:15pm
Quoting RoboSeer
{quote} I would not have traded this setup on 6E (EURUSD futures) because the volume decreased with the green candle. The difference could be due to the differences in volumes between the EURUSD spot and futures markets and also because Forex brokers cannot show centralized exchange traded volumes (i.e., they can only show the volumes traded through them). Also, the RSI being over 65% would have deterred me from entering this trade. However, it turned out to be a profitable one. {image}
That's fair!

The volume on spot brokers isn't as robust as futures but it's definitely measurable, and has been for years so it still serves the same function in my opinion. My analysis and trading experience has been on this measurement on volume regardless of how it’s obtained. I also have not adopted the RSI. A good signal here is the EVEREX indicator; showing a bearish volume candle that really struggled to move price on relatively good volume (high effort low result), followed by a bullish volume bar that showed great movement on relatively low effort, combined with the default rules.
  • #176
  • Jul 2, 2024 8:44pm Jul 2, 2024 8:44pm
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  • #177
  • Edited 4:35am Jul 3, 2024 4:04am | Edited 4:35am
I executed this scalp on the m15 20 minutes ago.

Nice break of structure, break of trendline and bounce of weekly pivot, bigger volume on color changing candle.

Trade almost hitting TP after 20 minutes.


I do the scalping on the 15 minutes chart because I'm not able to open large enough positions on the lower to satisfy my 1% account size pr. trade.

*TP was hit - but I got stopped out at BE+1
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  • #178
  • Jul 3, 2024 4:44am Jul 3, 2024 4:44am
Hi again! I would like to share some pretty interesting stuff i noticed by tweeking and combining this system with another system by MachineLearing. If this post is way of topic feel free to delete it but it looks pretty promising filtering out good trades. Now bear with me as english is not my native language and it's gonna be a pretty long post.

Now I combined MachineLearnings two systems this one and the one where he trades from 5min FVGs. The way I combined these two strategies is I look for an FVG with the trend and when price reaches that FVG I look for an entry according to the rules in this thread. I forward tested this system today on a small live account and got 4/4 winners so will keep trading this system for a while and see how it performs in the long run. I use a free indicator on tradingview that marks up FVGs for me.

Rememer I only look for FVGs with the trend and if price reaches them fairly quickly, ideally when the EMA 20 is above 50 for a buy and below 50 for a sell. I also look for other confluences to build a case around the trade, ideally a trendline, break and retest, fib etc to occure in that FVG I'm looking to take a trade from. below I will show you the 4 trades i got today and a short explanation why I took them.

Trade explanations is in the pictures. Also noticed the color of the FVGs are a bit bright so might be a bit tricky to see but hope you guys get the point. You might also click in on the pictures to see them a bit more detailed. I'd be more than happy to get some more thoughts about this.

Happy trading all and thanks to MachineLearning for his inspiration starting this thread!
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  • #179
  • Jul 3, 2024 5:00am Jul 3, 2024 5:00am
2. Trade of the day AUDCHF

Downside break of trendline, bearish break of structure (white line), color change, more volume, price coming down from 78% weekly pivot (Could go all the way down to weekly pivot at 0,59737

After a short retrace target was hit after 20 minutes. I did a 1:1,5 risk in this one. No moving of stop.
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  • #180
  • Jul 3, 2024 6:40am Jul 3, 2024 6:40am
Quoting Theo.baaws
Hi again! I would like to share some pretty interesting stuff i noticed by tweeking and combining this system with another system by MachineLearing. If this post is way of topic feel free to delete it but it looks pretty promising filtering out good trades. Now bear with me as english is not my native language and it's gonna be a pretty long post. Now I combined MachineLearnings two systems this one and the one where he trades from 5min FVGs. The way I combined these two strategies is I look for an FVG with the trend and when price reaches that...
Nice one! Great example of using price action for more confluence to enter trades. There’s an unlimited ways to observe the market and determine structure bias. Continue to study this method, very interesting.
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