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The Swamp

  • #118,181
  • Jun 28, 2024 2:11pm Jun 28, 2024 2:11pm
Quoting Fadhl
French elections this weekend. EU is expected to gap down if Madam LePen takes over the Parliament. 1.06-1.063 is my target. Entry from 1.070-1.72 is a good value.
I closed mine. i didnt want to hold either in front those elections.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,182
  • Jun 28, 2024 5:14pm Jun 28, 2024 5:14pm
The close was above 0610 0689 and 0694. I dont think bears did what it takes to break the range 09x/0600. + 0689 is bullish inside the range to me
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,183
  • Jun 30, 2024 9:36am Jun 30, 2024 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
The close was above 0610 0689 and 0694. I dont think bears did what it takes to break the range 09x/0600. + 0689 is bullish inside the range to me
Friday looked like this (above) to me. Still within the 0600 09x range. I think whenever is does break, it will be down. But I need evidence. The elections in the EZ EU can have a lot of influence on the eur crosses. Putin is actively playing a role to destroy the EZ unity. Divide within the countries helps his goals. The French elections can have a big affect on this. That affect may send the Euro down despite the quarter close holding Friday. If given the chance, I look hard at shorting 0776-0794. The POBO at 0787/88. I'm looking for signs there. If not, signs above the center range. The last I heard is the Putin backed are winning. That's more in line with congress equivalent in U.S. terms. If true, the elections results once digested fully. May push the Eur to break the lows. The poles are not always right. In either case the summer ranges most often. Break it, or not.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,184
  • Jun 30, 2024 9:46am Jun 30, 2024 9:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Friday looked like this (above) to me. Still within the 0600 09x range. I think whenever is does break, it will be down. But I need evidence. The elections in the EZ EU can have a lot of influence on the eur crosses. Putin is actively playing a role to destroy the EZ unity. Divide within the countries helps his goals. The French elections can have a big affect on this. That affect may send the Euro down despite the quarter close holding Friday. If given the chance, I look hard at shorting 0776-0794. The POBO at 0787/88. I'm looking for signs...
If the elections favor Putin. That blue box may be unreached or the highs.
0775/76 keeps popping up. The 200 day sma and ema is in there.
Friday's close to me looked liked it would push it back there. Those elections final results were not in that. I didnt plot the tl somewhere in there
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,185
  • Jun 30, 2024 2:07pm Jun 30, 2024 2:07pm
9pm in france. Not much to see here.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,186
  • Jun 30, 2024 2:35pm Jun 30, 2024 2:35pm
up we go
Quoting gatorinla
9pm in france. Not much to see here. {image}
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Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #118,187
  • Jun 30, 2024 3:30pm Jun 30, 2024 3:30pm
this could be interesting. 32 min out
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,188
  • Jun 30, 2024 3:35pm Jun 30, 2024 3:35pm
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...ardella-le-pen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,189
  • Jun 30, 2024 4:09pm Jun 30, 2024 4:09pm
It is real. A 30 pips higher gap.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,190
  • Jun 30, 2024 4:29pm Jun 30, 2024 4:29pm
Is this 1/4 end gap up, or as Bloomberg says, relief that Le Pen's gains were smaller than expected and short of the needed majority? I've heard people say that 1st round elections can be b*tch slap moves, to send a warning shot, with the 2nd round to come back into where the country is at.

Whatever, it looks like France will be headed toward a cohab gov't, with the Prez and PM from different parties. A weaker gov't and should weigh on EUR
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #118,191
  • Jun 30, 2024 7:20pm Jun 30, 2024 7:20pm
It looks like La Pen didnt get the amounts the polls suggested. It looks like July 7 may decide. That's a week away. I guess the polls will guide the euro the next 7 days. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/euro-edg...vote-1.2091358
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/30/fren...-election.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,192
  • Jun 30, 2024 7:23pm Jun 30, 2024 7:23pm
Quoting longfellow
Is this 1/4 end gap up, or as Bloomberg says, relief that Le Pen's gains were smaller than expected and short of the needed majority? I've heard people say that 1st round elections can be b*tch slap moves, to send a warning shot, with the 2nd round to come back into where the country is at. Whatever, it looks like France will be headed toward a cohab gov't, with the Prez and PM from different parties....
Sorry to overlap. I'm just reading yours
0775/88 looks to have an opening
POBO and the election news
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,193
  • Jun 30, 2024 8:54pm Jun 30, 2024 8:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
I'm biased to 0787ish.. So just beware of places like 0739/30. And above can resist.. That pobo at 0787 was my goal. But there is other things here.. 0776 0793 and anywhere between. But if it a quarter move into range.. These wont matter. I personally think 0780 is where the big boys lay. I may be 100% full of shit. but if they are not there. And i'm wrong. A missed opportunity, or a higher short for me. You all can see 0747 and 0761 up there. Any of these can screw me from 0780 +
It reached 0761.. This is where i can be screwed. 0743, or 0730/31 may support it to break 0761.. Keep in mind 0712 can pull it.. Some support 0710/12ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,194
  • Jun 30, 2024 9:42pm Jun 30, 2024 9:42pm
I longed 0694 but closed ahead of the election friday. On that trade 0760+is what i had in mind. Knowing 0761 was a R. I was unable to re-enter the long with the gap. Looking for a new place to long.. Maybe 0712ish.. If i would of held the long my dynamic stop would be at 0733-1
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,195
  • Jun 30, 2024 10:00pm Jun 30, 2024 10:00pm
I would imagine a lot of traders are shorting 0760, The stops are probably less than 20. Trading 0760 will hold R. I can also imagine many are trading a long on a b/o of 0761.
If price was to go to 076x+. I would think many shorts would close, turning into a long. Added to the longs of the break out North. That would probably cause a surge north. If that surge is unable to remain above 0760 44 24, 14, 08 0694 89.. Each level being a rung in the ladder. each rung lost a little less bullish. Remaining above 0760 88 93 and so forth leans more bullish in the trend. I think larger players will be collecting shorts on the way up in the range. I thinks something is waiting about 0776/88/93
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,196
  • Jul 1, 2024 4:12am Jul 1, 2024 4:12am
The 12h closed above 0761. PA is already above adr. I think it will go higher on the close above 0762.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,197
  • Jul 1, 2024 7:06am Jul 1, 2024 7:06am
Quoting gatorinla
The 12h closed above 0761. PA is already above adr. I think it will go higher on the close above 0762.
PA is not remaining above 0762. That next support rung at 0744 is getting stressed.
I got a short signal, but can't take it with 0744 block.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,198
  • Jul 1, 2024 8:19am Jul 1, 2024 8:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA is not remaining above 0762. That next support rung at 0744 is getting stressed. I got a short signal, but can't take it with 0744 block.
waiting for a signal to sell aud .6679 ish scalp
nevermind cancel
if it get over 6672. it may support
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,199
  • Jul 1, 2024 8:29am Jul 1, 2024 8:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} PA is not remaining above 0762. That next support rung at 0744 is getting stressed. I got a short signal, but can't take it with 0744 block.
0744 is too tough for the average bear. It may still reach 0787
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,200
  • Jul 1, 2024 8:31am Jul 1, 2024 8:31am
I got another short signal on the eu.. Its unlikely 0712 will attract it this far up. Soit may be unable to break 0744 or 24. 0744ish may be a buy.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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