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The Swamp

  • #118,161
  • Jun 27, 2024 8:00am Jun 27, 2024 8:00am
It just closed above 0718. So i dont think it finished
An outside chance 0713 or 0808/09 will bounce.. I would not short to it. Since it closed above 0718, I personally expect higher.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,162
  • Jun 27, 2024 8:41am Jun 27, 2024 8:41am
I'm biased to 0787ish.. So just beware of places like 0739/30. And above can resist.. That pobo at 0787 was my goal. But there is other things here.. 0776 0793 and anywhere between. But if it a quarter move into range.. These wont matter. I personally think 0780 is where the big boys lay. I may be 100% full of shit. but if they are not there. And i'm wrong. A missed opportunity, or a higher short for me.
You all can see 0747 and 0761 up there. Any of these can screw me from 0780 +
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,163
  • Jun 27, 2024 8:59am Jun 27, 2024 8:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The news is usd positive. Those big ass options are lower 0700 0650. LC 0680. All that is lower. With good reason to fall. Some R at 0713 another reason price may stall. If despite that, it rises. It may be seeking 0780 87 88 maybe more. It would have time to retreat to those others. 0780 may be toppy. It could reach 0793.. {quote}
The next h can erase this rise. The rise has a lot of reasons to fail. From my perspective it dont matter. The time to long was the close above 0789. Now it's risky. PA doing the opposite of the news suggest is risky. With 1h to expiry. Those are some very large options. I closed my small long.. I still have the bias for 078x.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,164
  • Jun 27, 2024 9:13am Jun 27, 2024 9:13am
Quoting gatorinla
Chose your personal time frame. If it closes above 0718. Its likely not finished rising
It has to start closing below 0718 now to fall. Timeframe of close is your own.
If unable to close below, well? You do the math.
At the 30 min mark see if price began to fall. If 25 min before the next h close, And price didnt start to fall. It becomes much harder to fall. * This quarter close and mid year close can make it's own rules. On a regular day this seems normal. I'm scared to have a long with 7 billion of options. The support on the way down could be 0713 and or 0708/09.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,165
  • Jun 27, 2024 9:22am Jun 27, 2024 9:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It has to start closing below 0718 now to fall. Timeframe of close is your own. If unable to close below, well? You do the math. At the 30 min mark see if price began to fall. If 25 min before the next h close, And price didnt start to fall. It becomes much harder to fall. * This quarter close and mid year close can make it's own rules. On a regular day this seems normal. I'm scared to have a long with 7 billion of options. The support on the way down could be 0713 and or 0708/09.
The same as on the way up.. can support some..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,166
  • Jun 27, 2024 11:00am Jun 27, 2024 11:00am
I wanna long 0696/0700 if possible. I may have missed it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,167
  • Jun 27, 2024 7:21pm Jun 27, 2024 7:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
I wanna long 0696/0700 if possible. I may have missed it.
I 'm bring stops to 699
I dont know if 0708/09 or 13 will resist.. The same as earlier with 18 29/30 41 etc.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,168
  • Jun 27, 2024 7:40pm Jun 27, 2024 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I 'm bring stops to 699 I dont know if 0708/09 or 13 will resist.. The same as earlier with 18 29/30 41 etc.
Its dripping stops to 0703. 0706 light support
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,169
  • Jun 27, 2024 10:05pm Jun 27, 2024 10:05pm
shorted 1.0692. I think there is a big risk of these french elections. I remember 6-8 yrs back when hollande won the elections the euro collapsed
  • #118,170
  • Jun 27, 2024 10:24pm Jun 27, 2024 10:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its dripping stops to 0703. 0706 light support
In hindsight i should of took the 7 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,171
  • Jun 27, 2024 10:41pm Jun 27, 2024 10:41pm
Quoting giveachance
shorted 1.0692. I think there is a big risk of these french elections. I remember 6-8 yrs back when hollande won the elections the euro collapsed
You need that close below 0689. The last h was a 6h close above. Its right on that edge for either direction. Those elections surley can give a direction.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,172
  • Jun 28, 2024 4:43am Jun 28, 2024 4:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You need that close below 0689. The last h was a 6h close above. Its right on that edge for either direction. Those elections surley can give a direction.
The 12h close was above.
News later can take it either way.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,173
  • Jun 28, 2024 7:13am Jun 28, 2024 7:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 12h close was above. News later can take it either way. {image}
news in 12m
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  • #118,174
  • Jun 28, 2024 7:32am Jun 28, 2024 7:32am
as expected
0714 and 20 in the way to the others..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,175
  • Jun 28, 2024 7:53am Jun 28, 2024 7:53am
I think bears need to close the quarter below 0689. To have a weak b/o. Stronger would be -0610 or 0601. If unable to break out. The summer range may still be valid. Depending how you score it, the range can be 0600ish to 0900ish.. The news was as expected. Those option could bring it below 0689 or not. LC is 0712
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,176
  • Jun 28, 2024 8:00am Jun 28, 2024 8:00am
Quoting gatorinla
I think bears need to close the quarter below 0689. To have a weak b/o. Stronger would be -0610 or 0601. If unable to break out. The summer range may still be valid. Depending how you score it, the range can be 0600ish to 0900ish.. The news was as expected. Those option could bring it below 0689 or not. LC is 0712
Before LC may be limited in range to upper 0725ish .. If it falls 0650.
After LC pa may move beyond
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,177
  • Jun 28, 2024 9:41am Jun 28, 2024 9:41am
French elections this weekend. EU is expected to gap down if Madam LePen takes over the Parliament. 1.06-1.063 is my target. Entry from 1.070-1.72 is a good value.
  • #118,178
  • Jun 28, 2024 10:02am Jun 28, 2024 10:02am
the third time today.. If I would of known. I would have tp earlier on the others. The R should still be 0713 and 20. I was looking for more. So i can move the stops up.
No more news, LC closed. I hope to get a run
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  • #118,179
  • Jun 28, 2024 10:08am Jun 28, 2024 10:08am
A 6h close above 0714.. I hope it dont retrace more than to 0707 now.. It may be a light support. I will move stops closer to 707..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #118,180
  • Jun 28, 2024 10:34am Jun 28, 2024 10:34am
This may be a bull flag with a pole. 2X the pole is 29 pips. The lower 075x area.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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