Shalom Orthodox and not so Orthodox. I think the title suggests a certain topic of the note. It is a question that worries the minds of many people who are somehow connected with trading. Let's analyze a little bit the concept of a universal trading strategy. Some time ago there was a webinar with the participation of respected people. And the question was raised: is there a universal trading system at all? The majority said no, including respected people. I will tell my humble opinion in what here lies the secret. So, a universal trading system is a thing that can work in any market conditions. It constantly throws up signals and provides you with shekels. But is there such a beast? It is worth starting from afar, for example, with the Dow Theory. This thing was described at the end of the 19th century, that is, it is more than a hundred years old. Nevertheless, all the assumptions of the theory still work. Let's go further, technical analysis. In essence, the same eggs Dow, but in profile. The Dow theory is the basis of technical analysis, only it is already enclosed in various cups with handles and heads with shoulders. The full course of TA and a bunch of other books of similar topics have been living their life for decades. With the dramatic change in the approach to trading, global digitalization, algorithmicization and other "tion", technical analysis is still alive and will live on. What are the chances of existence of a universal trading system based on technical analysis? As we can see, quite good. Let's take another approach, somewhat complicated by criminal prosecution - fundamental analysis. Earlier, FA was a network thing, everywhere there were their hired cossacks who telegraphed information from one place to another and made money on it. Now evil uncles and other controlling bodies will do you atata. In any case, the basic message has not changed - bad news for the company = capital outflow, decreased trust. Good news = company blooms and smells. Isn't this a universal trading system? I'd say it's an axiom of life. And then it's your problem how you get information about the state of affairs.
The main problem with a universal trading system is something else. The frequency of signals. The only concept that I agree with in terms of saying "the market has changed and I can't get anything out of it" is the frequency of signals. The market doesn't change a damn thing. The market has only two states, accumulation and distribution. The question is in the realization of both accumulation and distribution. Let me give an example from my personal practice. The basis of the system is supports. (https://telegra.ph/Support-12-01). But in 2022-2023, the price has entered a clear field, where there are no price levels, which it has been pondering for 5-10 years. The price has gone beyond the usual sidewalls = lack of usual supports = reduced frequency of signals or their complete absence for some time. Now on to something I agree with. If you are an impatient young Hugh Hefner, you should have a few trading approaches worked out that will take these market conditions into account. In my experience, I will say, I have encountered this exact phenomenon in the 2022-2023 time frame. Although I am not a dandy in the market business either, I have been sitting behind charts for years, but I had to adapt. And the technical analysis is again to my credit. I just expanded a little bit in terms of the concepts I use when analyzing. There are not many references, but I think everybody noticed how the currency market liked impulses. It just so happens that I have been developing an approach to take impulses into account in trading for several years and voila, they came in handy. Experience has already proved and proved that the price reacts to the impulse just as well as to the support, so let's take it and work. Of course, there are other nuances, but they are trifles compared to the global approach. As a result, I had a TS based on support + patterns and trend + patterns. After a while there appeared branches in the form of impulse + pattern, support + TA logic, impulse + TA logic. And any combination has its own frequency of signals occurrence. Can it be called a universal trading system? Yes, you can, because all these combinations have one thing in common - rules, and they are static for everything. Regardless of the support/impulse/trend, the rules of pattern interaction are the same. The conclusions are self-explanatory: the market does not change all its life, only the structure of movement changes. Somewhere impulses prevail, somewhere small dojiks, somewhere both and a lot of other things. The frequency of occurrence of certain signals depends on the structure. No more than that. A universal trading system is not only a strict set of rules and static, but also your flexibility in decision making. The final results are two. 1. You will have periods of calm and periods of active trading on the TS, just get used to this phenomenon, (but we need to swing the deposit and a lot of money) and you will be happy. You can live with one TS, but I doubt that it will suit you. 2. Have additional inclusions in the system, which will be pulled in one or another period of time, juggle them and you will be happy.
I'm done, thanks for listening! Your FaD P.S. Don't forget about frames, (https://t.me/dnfad/2833) if there is a desire, welcome.
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