Technical Analysis Fallacy

In memory of FTI, the most generous human I've ever crossed paths with on planet Earth. Fti, together with all the faceless people on this forum, you guys changed my life forever for the better. God bless everyone. Happy and prosperous New Year 2024 to all.
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Happy Birthday FTI ... 22 Jan is your birthday i recall ... wherever you may be...

Firstly, I must say I have not read all the posts in this thread. So if I repeat what has been said, sorry.
I have for the most of my trading life been a believer of fundamental analysis. Convinced it was more “true” and based on real data. Then I realized even fundamental data is up for interpretation. And no one usually has all the data. So you might base your conclusions on insufficient knowledge.
A price chart has all the information. Even inside information. It is all reflected in the price. Take Enron, for those old enough to remember. Management said everything is fine, analysts said everything is fine, all the while the stock price kept dropping. Why? Because all information is in the price. People who knew what was going on sold their shares. People suspecting foul play sold. The rest is history.
Technical analysis, or price action analysis, pays no attention to this misinformation. The price shows what is happening, regardless of projected earnings or what paid analysts say. But the key of technical analysis is that people watch. A support level may not be a level by itself, but because millions of people believe it is, it becomes just that. Support, resistance, channel, double top or bottom. These patterns exist, and frequently work, because millions of traders believe they do. That is the main, and probably the only reason to use technical analysis. I am not a certified technical analyst (how does one become that?), but I believe in price action. Indicators I am more on the fence about, because they are lagging for the most part, but as long as the “sheep herd” is using them, they play their role.

And after writing all this, I noticed this is an old thread….

Anyone still here?

I still visit from time to time just to check in but it has been mostly quiet. hope all is well.

I can understand most peoples sentiments - Trading is hard and unfortunately over the decades to sell books, courses, manuals etc people have Invested a lot of time and money into producing those items and sell worthless tat to recoup their Investment, which is no good to those of us that want to make trading/Investing work

You CAN do it through TA, but you have to do what everyone else isn't doing!

Think of all the fundamental nonsense that fails - WHY?

Think of all the technical nonsense that fails - WHY?

The answer is TIMING

and within that cycles - If you find a market that is bottoming on a MAJOR cycle, its either going to go upwards or sideways and if it does either of those you can profit from in someway

Suspend you're beliefs for 2 mins - EVERYTHING and I mean everything in your/our lives operates on cycles - The SEASONS operate on a cycle of the SUN - It IS HOW WE SURVIVE as humans

Now you can look at cycles in varying ways - WD Gann said that when TIME & PRICE BALANCED the trend changes

Here is proof - the KEY here is working out the scaling, because if your charting platform does NOT scale properly, this will not work

Also once you accept that things happen that are beyond human logical thinking, market action can be better understood

Here's the DJIA - working out cycles to the FIB ratio using the 2009 low PRICE as TIME!



I know this might sound crazy, but its catching Important turning points! Now we use the same scaling that created the pink Gann 1 x 1 angle in the chart above and we use it as per the next chart:



I'm willing to bet very very very few people have even thought of this, let alone done it - self-evident information is on the chart


Just from the chart above it is blatantly clear that the stock market is not random

Anyone who missed the Oct 2022 bounce wasn't looking at Technical Analysis properly! It FELL to a 50% Gann level of the Mar'20-Jan'22 price range AND had multiple GEOMETRIC (which cannot lie or be manipulated) levels pointing to a certain level - see chart below


Remember WD Gann - he wrote a lot of courses, he had dumbed down courses for the masses, because even 100 years ago he knew people were on the whole like those who've dismissed TA on this very thread, so he sold basic courses to them, in those course he talked of cycles, angles etc

You've got to be one prized plonker if you can't see the value in this Technical Analysis method right below of which has not changed for over 100 years!



I make no apologies for pointing out that Technical Analysis when done RIGHT just WORKS

Gann said just trading off the 1 x 1 angle can make you rich - I bet 99% of traders worldwide missed those stupidly easy trades in 2023, because they weren't looking or couldn't be bothered to put in the work to work out the scaling!

The markets folks, are patterned and those patterns are GEOMETRICAL, which means that they can be TIMED and PRICE levels worked out - elsewhere on this forum I've published how you could have worked out the Jan 2022 PRICE level as well as publishing a chart with the price level and TIME BEFORE the event

As traders/Investors - I know that there is a lot of crap out there, I've had to sift through the junk and work out what works and what doesn't, if you can't be bothered to put in the work, just don't moan that TA doesn't work, because I can prove it does and am happy to prove people wrong

PS - Dick Diamond made a 40+ trading career solely by using Technical Analysis and Indicators! He wrote a book in 2015 too detailing his simple methods, so if they worked for him for 40 years, how can they be and TA useless? (RIP Dick)

All the Information you need is OUT THERE in trader land, to those that bother to look good luck on your journey

so sad, i followed this thread in 2012 and i found out fti stopped posting just recently,i wish him well, i wish have the capital to trade like him

I'll be the first to say, I contradict myself. I argued on behalf of TA, and now I will do the opposite. I do believe in trends, I do believe an upwards moving trend is most likely to continue. Likewise for a downwards trend. I believe a double top may indicate direction, because a lot of people believe it. But it is not certain. It can be a “false” signal. Which means it is not a signal. It is a random occurance that might or might not show direction. Same with candles. Doji, shooting star, engulfing. Means nothing, because they are not consistent signals. They must be interpreted, together with other signals, which are also up for discussion. All in all, all TA signals and meanings are random and subjective. And 9 out of 10 do not work. Yes, for long time frames (months) TA might work, due to trend and pack behaviour. Claiming TA is great for trading, based on chart patterns and candles, is more luck and not sustainable over time. The exception is maybe in the equities market, where belief in a company and an industry matters, and pack behaviour is more dominant, but in FX with “unlimited” assets, and the massive dominance of big banks in volume, price action is often given (however not known to us). I listende to a podcast a while back, where a professional FX trader for 50 years was interviewed, and he said a retail trader stands no chance. His clients were huge banks, corporations and even countries. He said they pay absolutely no attention to TA, whatsoever. Seeing as retail trade in FX is less than 10% of the volume, and the face that over 90% do not care about TA, it is hard to argue that a chart pattern matters…

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I am assuming rip FTI,
no other way for me to process the time spans in between posts, but I do not know for sure.


And FTI was very clear about what he meant.

Many folk I venture to say might see the Thread Title “Technical Analysis Fallacy”
and without reading the fullness of his posts come to a conclusion that FTI was saying technical analysis IS a fallacy.

FTI was also clear in his words that he himself was a Qualified (?) Technical Analyst.

So we can read the first 50 pages (maybe more/less) again and try to find where he discusses what he believes was the “fallacy” … in relation to TA.

All the best folks,
And the same to you FTI wherever you may be now sir

One my fave pics that FTI posted …

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13323733

Dear FTI, thank you for everything my great mentor, you changed my life.

Wherever you are, have fun...

I would always check up on you here https://www.facebook.com/fti.mex.9 but you have not posted for a while...

Peace out

Zoran

Hi Friends,
a long long time, since I have been in here.
Hope you are all doing well.
It has been a great time, when we have all been learning from fti. Still unbelievable, what he shared with us.

Wish him and all the other "seniors" all the best!
Stay calm and focussed!!!

Kind regards,
MaMood

time flies

Greetings with kind regards.

Hi, is there anyone that can walk me through the attack sequence? So far I can rescue my positions, but when it comes to attacking the trend I don't have the slightest clue on how to approach it. A graphical walkthrough is very much appreciated

i believe one is supposed to add to winning positions on pullbacks, once the prevailing trend resumes- attacking the trend. essentially he is legging into trades and building a position when the market is going in his favour

Good day to you Sir...am new hear from Africa and trying to grasp the Forex trading..please what steps will you suggest to help me on my learning curve.

Wishing everyone a great trading week.

Sorry to ask. Learning how to trade and google isn't giving me a solid answer. When does London, New york open?
Based off this reply, did it open 20 minutes ago, or 50 minutes ago?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if you are from Indonesia
then on a world map you would line up with Australia in our
Western Australia
time zone


If not, just change to your own Time Zone on this site
Good fortunes

http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/i...Australia/West;

It would be difficult for you to learn trading if you struggle to find even such type of information which can be easily googled. Developing trading strategies requires much more advanced research, you have to work on improving this skill, no offence intended