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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,681
  • Jun 14, 2024 6:25am Jun 14, 2024 6:25am
Finished the job I was on so will be able to start trading the DIVI's again...
  • #3,682
  • Jun 18, 2024 6:06am Jun 18, 2024 6:06am
Market makers hacking my pc to know exactly where im going to close my longs like always. 21% new equity high after 430+ trades. Serious question though for you guys that have been around the block. How do you know determine when you can truly trust your edge? Or do you believe that you need to always be on your toes? Does this ever get to the point where your on auto-pilot and printing money after thousands and thousands of trades?
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  • #3,683
  • Jun 18, 2024 6:57am Jun 18, 2024 6:57am
Quoting WallFlower
Market makers hacking my pc to know exactly where im going to close my longs like always. 21% new equity high after 430+ trades. Serious question though for you guys that have been around the block. How do you know determine when you can truly trust your edge? Or do you believe that you need to always be on your toes? Does this ever get to the point where your on auto-pilot and printing money after thousands and thousands of trades? {image} {image}
NEVER!

the markets are constantly changing, also the volatility.

what works today will maybe not work tomorrow.

even the DIVI trades maybe not work in the future. you dont know it.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,684
  • Jun 18, 2024 3:50pm Jun 18, 2024 3:50pm
Agree with Bird, thought I’d cracked it so many times I’ve lost count. I’d say when you have a good mindset/system in place that’s great but I then look at what circumstances would break it and plan for that. If there’s a 1% chance it can fail badly without intervention then that’s the reverse edge to start planning for. Better traders than me might have a different view though.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,685
  • Jun 19, 2024 12:58am Jun 19, 2024 12:58am
Same here, realising that there was never going to be a constant set and forget system was my eureka moment
  • #3,686
  • Jun 19, 2024 3:39am Jun 19, 2024 3:39am
Yea I kind of felt this was going to be the answer, well looks like ill have to keep working at it forever, this really can be a grind if you don't enjoy it I think. Although for me personally this method I think has been one of the more resilient systems in my own experience. AUD/USD looks like an absolute mess yet you can trade it averaging in and out and switching your bias all over the place, I think someone here described it as trying to 'capture' the volatility and that is making sense for me now, funny how things only start to click after a good while.
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  • #3,687
  • Jun 19, 2024 8:56am Jun 19, 2024 8:56am
Quoting WallFlower
Yea I kind of felt this was going to be the answer, well looks like ill have to keep working at it forever, this really can be a grind if you don't enjoy it I think. Although for me personally this method I think has been one of the more resilient systems in my own experience. AUD/USD looks like an absolute mess yet you can trade it averaging in and out and switching your bias all over the place, I think someone here described it as trying to 'capture' the volatility and that is making sense for me now, funny how things only start to click after...
Screen time is the killer for me, even though I trade live with a pretty big number it's still not enough for me to retire on and I miss things which can get expensive, could you EA some/all of your strategy?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,688
  • Jun 19, 2024 12:20pm Jun 19, 2024 12:20pm
Div trade was very small but looks like it did gap and close today?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,689
  • Jun 19, 2024 3:24pm Jun 19, 2024 3:24pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Screen time is the killer for me, even though I trade live with a pretty big number it's still not enough for me to retire on and I miss things which can get expensive, could you EA some/all of your strategy?
Yea more and more is moving to EA now, its still the exact same thing as what wave has outlined here averaging and hedging, its just I am in Australia so NY open is around 10pm so unless I'm doing nightshift I cant manage everything manually, I just have a look when I can (couple times a day) and manually decide LONG/SHORT only or both or hedge or close everything pretty simple system just have to keep on top of it, but everything is running pretty smooth at the moment, I know you run a mix of EA and manual dont you? are they separate accounts or all together?
  • #3,690
  • Jun 19, 2024 3:52pm Jun 19, 2024 3:52pm
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} Yea more and more is moving to EA now, its still the exact same thing as what wave has outlined here averaging and hedging, its just I am in Australia so NY open is around 10pm so unless I'm doing nightshift I cant manage everything manually, I just have a look when I can (couple times a day) and manually decide LONG/SHORT only or both or hedge or close everything pretty simple system just have to keep on top of it, but everything is running pretty smooth at the moment, I know you run a mix of EA and manual dont you? are they separate accounts...
I'm constantly experimenting/dicking around with things, my ability to make EAs has definitely improved, not so sure about the trading though. I have been running an EA experiment for 33 weeks without intervention on a separate account and based around our hedging/averaging philosophy, it's at +13% at the mo. If your decisions are purely a "feel" thing then that's not easy to implement in an EA obviously, but if you could find a way to quantify it then it's possible to a point. EAs don't have be exclusively for auto trading in my book but can be useful for TP, screen info etc. as well.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,691
  • Jun 20, 2024 3:11am Jun 20, 2024 3:11am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} I'm constantly experimenting/dicking around with things, my ability to make EAs has definitely improved, not so sure about the trading though. I have been running an EA experiment for 33 weeks without intervention on a separate account and based around our hedging/averaging philosophy, it's at +13% at the mo. If your decisions are purely a "feel" thing then that's not easy to implement in an EA obviously, but if you could find a way to quantify it then it's possible to a point. EAs don't have be exclusively for auto trading in my book but...
Thanks for the FXdreema tip, LT. It's a bit of a learning curve but saves messing about with freelancers and great for testing ideas
  • #3,692
  • Jun 20, 2024 5:10am Jun 20, 2024 5:10am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Thanks for the FXdreema tip, LT. It's a bit of a learning curve but saves messing about with freelancers and great for testing ideas
No problem, I'm learning new things with it all the time, screen outputs, alerts etc. One of my favorites is the ability to create buy, sell, stop and limit buttons which can be used in Mt4 strategy tester mode, great for testing and practice in sped up time on real data.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,693
  • Jun 20, 2024 6:40am Jun 20, 2024 6:40am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} No problem, I'm learning new things with it all the time, screen outputs, alerts etc. One of my favorites is the ability to create buy, sell, stop and limit buttons which can be used in Mt4 strategy tester mode, great for testing and practice in sped up time on real data.
Yep I found after coding all sorts of EA's that the more complex I make them the worse they work generally lol, all mine does now is open and close trades pretty much exactly how I do it manually except he doesn't have any emotions and doesn't get tired and does exactly what I say. Ive never been able to make a 100% mechanical system work long term. 33 weeks and 13% gain is very nice for a system with no intervention, do you ever tweak it on the go or choose a direction?
  • #3,694
  • Jun 20, 2024 7:15am Jun 20, 2024 7:15am
Quoting WallFlower
{quote} Yep I found after coding all sorts of EA's that the more complex I make them the worse they work generally lol, all mine does now is open and close trades pretty much exactly how I do it manually except he doesn't have any emotions and doesn't get tired and does exactly what I say. Ive never been able to make a 100% mechanical system work long term. 33 weeks and 13% gain is very nice for a system with no intervention, do you ever tweak it on the go or choose a direction?
I dropped a couple of pairs very early on, other than that I never touch it as I'd like to see how it fairs over a longer period (i.e. years). It's taken a hit lately but recovering again, it's got more patience than me.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,695
  • Jun 21, 2024 5:34am Jun 21, 2024 5:34am
Hello everyone.
I have read all the posts but I really can't understand this method, maybe my English is too bad. Anyone have a summary?
Thank you so much for helping a 65 year old man who never stops learning
Have a nice day!
  • #3,696
  • Jun 21, 2024 8:37am Jun 21, 2024 8:37am
Currently working on a way of accurately establishing S/R levels in Fxdreema, the maths gets pretty full-on but have managed to work out most problems with it so far, something quite satisfying about creating an EA which does what you want, if only to see your new boat purchase/retirement plans go down in flames when you back test it and it goes tits-up after 5 years . The other side of the coin is when the EAs dispell many of the entrenched dogmas promoted by brokers etc. All good fun.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,697
  • Jun 21, 2024 8:40am Jun 21, 2024 8:40am
Quoting JesseNguyen
Hello everyone. I have read all the posts but I really can't understand this method, maybe my English is too bad. Anyone have a summary? Thank you so much for helping a 65 year old man who never stops learning Have a nice day!
Hi Jesse, welcome to the thread, are you asking about trading without prediction or the Div trades, as they differ a little.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,698
  • Jun 21, 2024 10:08am Jun 21, 2024 10:08am
Quoting JesseNguyen
Hello everyone. I have read all the posts but I really can't understand this method, maybe my English is too bad. Anyone have a summary? Thank you so much for helping a 65 year old man who never stops learning Have a nice day!
I am 4o years elder to you.

I have plans to trade gbpusd for another 20 years.

Keep it up.
Intraday only.
  • #3,699
  • Jun 21, 2024 10:17am Jun 21, 2024 10:17am
After one month underwater and made all the mistakes possible, I think I can take a breath now + 25% overall. I continue to make mistakes but this time they don't cost me so much
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Dreams don't work unless you do
RealDeal All Time Return: -73.9%
  • #3,700
  • Jun 21, 2024 10:25am Jun 21, 2024 10:25am
Quoting JesseNguyen
Hello everyone. I have read all the posts but I really can't understand this method, maybe my English is too bad. Anyone have a summary? Thank you so much for helping a 65 year old man who never stops learning Have a nice day!
I think this YouTube channel can help you a lot
https://www.youtube.com/@theforexhedge

For me, the trimming was the game-changer.
Dreams don't work unless you do
RealDeal All Time Return: -73.9%
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