Why is NZD so strong??

Looks like it pretty much the winning formula now!

Well got kicked on that trade. Stupid to go against such strong trend I guess. Maybe 8000 is not impossible. Will watch & see.

So this thing is around where I took it short yesterday before the housewives bailed it out & knocked me out of my short. Should I go short again with the Bad Business confidence news? Hmm. let's see if it hits 7770 first. Otherwise maybe I will buy this dip & take it back to 7815 & get my pips back.

Well, if anyone is watching NZD/JPY atm, it's in a really nicely formed channel on the 1-minutes based on the post-release peak.

Well it just broke 7770. Now I need to really look at this. 7750 should be doable.

Hmm. went to the store when it was 7773 and get home at 7753. Guess I missed my entry. Guess I was really a day early. I thought it might bounce of 7770 before it went further.
So now 7750 mark. I would think it might bounce off here for a bit. See how it goes. I don't want to get caught trying to chase this thing now. Plus with Bernanke speaking tomorrow who knows. If I was up 30 40 pips a different story. I'm going to look for for it to go below 7740 and take another look. Man too bad i shot this off a day early. Oh well.

Key support now seen
at the 21 day moving average, today coming in at $0.7670.

Pretty healthy 4 hour Pin Bar on this pair today!
Trading long at the moment....

Just sold at a 30 pip profit
.8755 to .8785

Well the bounce of 7750 seems done. I'm short @ 7746

Did you have a good reason for doing this? Carry trades are still going to be pretty strong with NZ interest rates as high as they are.

Fundamentally I don't think NZ can support rate this high & is only this high because of carry trades and general dollar weakness. I know this is against a very strong trend, but 7800 seems to be a pretty good resistance now and 7830 after that seems very strong. Also the day chart has been rolling over short the past couple of days.
Past three days have seen lower highs & lower lows. Also if you look on 4hr it seems to be following trend line down from 7877 peak on 7/5, although choppy. Also today it pushed down to 7714 before big bounce back although the bounce back did not break 7770 (at least not yet). Perhaps a new resistance? Still this is very risky trade I know. News on Thursday retail sales & core sales will give real good indication of where its headed. Of course this depends on the dollar not imploding under sub prime issues. I'll see how this goes when the housewife's get their chance on it. I know this is risky.
My guess is 7700 is not out of the picture for a test, maybe this week. Long term I think 7600 is possible with a very outside chance of 7500 before this thing seriously moves up again.
These are all my guess'. Please feel free to comment on everything you disagree with. I may be missing something.

rbock

Good points all, but saying it's "only the carry trade" is like the captain of the Titanic saying "Its only the iceberg". So long as carry is king the NZD will skyrocket, we need BoJ hikes, and risk aversion to sweep the globe. Otherwise, lather, rinse, repeat.

This is a very good point, and BOJ could really helps out if they did that, which they won't, but ice bergs do melt. However unlike our good captain I am well aware of the iceberg, & I think fundamentals will ultimately will out.
Like I said though, this is very risky. Thanks for your input.

So, Are you still short at 46 going for distant thunder with wide SL or did you get stopped out on the rise back to 70? Looking at the 1H chart, it all seems to be bouncing between the top and bottom Fib retracements from the .7784 slide to .7714, which are .7769 and .7741.

Am I reading that right? I'm pretty new at all this so excuse me for asking ignorant questions.

SL @7780. I'm at the high of the previous 4 hr candle. This is a bit larger stop loss than I usually use but it is very choppy. So far the housewife's haven't bailed it out yet. Well see how the next opening goes. I may tighten this up a bit. This is a very risky trade. I'm only really looking for about 7710 area. If it gets there I will either cash out or protect half of it if it looks good to keep going.
No problem with the questions. The only ignorant question is the one not asked.

NZD/USD Possibly has made it's high. Most crosses with dollar gained just lately but if anything the Kiwi struggled if anything went down???

Kiwi so strong? Not for long?

Initial Break of the trend @ .7680 and hopefully another @.7566 we should start to see a downtrend.

Should see a slight bounce at around these levels.

Don't under estimate the carry traders buying at these dips!!

Come on the Kiwi.

Well, so far this morning, it looks like carry is king for a bit longer! NZD has made it up to .7838 which was my original long projection. We are up 100 pips since yesterday afternoon. Hope you guys that went short are not suffering too terribly. I suppose it doesn't matter how much info comes out about business being down if the interest rate you are paying is as high as it is.
I recon it will bounce off of today's top pivot level which has also been previous resistance.
Does anyone have thoughts as to where to from here?

Hmm. Me=1 Iceberg=2
Well maybe I'm trying too push this. You know I have seen talk about this going to 8000, & maybe this is the case. We had three days retracement & a big push up today. The dollar is awfully weak.
Assuming no surprise rate hike by BOJ I'm going to look for it to see if it drifts back to 7790 7780 area & go long. See how tommorows news is and go from there.
I have to says its funny. I rode this thing long from 6800 to 7300 figured it topped out there & now have watched it go to 7800. Oh well.
Me looking to go long waiting to go short

Add this to the mix....

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10451542

Regards