NFP perhaps!
2
Trading the Cable swings via averages
- #9,764
- Jun 7, 2024 7:14am Jun 7, 2024 7:14am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Actually, an AB= CD almost gets it there on the 4 hour.
But knowing our luck with guessing it will probably shoot south instead.
But knowing our luck with guessing it will probably shoot south instead.
- #9,766
- Jun 8, 2024 5:50am Jun 8, 2024 5:50am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
It always pays to review what the market did each day and compare it to the scriptures I have posted if only to keep me honest.
As you are all well aware my trading revolves around the 26 EMA's and the swing levels they create Then couple this to the signals the chart displays. This then gives us our entry, target and stop.
I have set this out on the 1-hour chart below showing two types of entries each with the same 1% risk and 2% profit even though the distances are greatly different. The difference is in the lot size each is traded at. The first trade at the HD requires half the lot size of the second entry because it has twice the distance to travel.
Look how we had some 34 hours to work this out
I have been waiting a long time for someone to plot like this and post their findings, but it hasn't happened yet. I know it is not easy until you get all the notions and potions locked firmly in the space between the ears. People trade out of habit be it a good habit or a bad one. How often do you take a trade without any idea of why you did it, let alone having a notion of entry, target and stop based upon a solid logic.
Any questions?
As you are all well aware my trading revolves around the 26 EMA's and the swing levels they create Then couple this to the signals the chart displays. This then gives us our entry, target and stop.
I have set this out on the 1-hour chart below showing two types of entries each with the same 1% risk and 2% profit even though the distances are greatly different. The difference is in the lot size each is traded at. The first trade at the HD requires half the lot size of the second entry because it has twice the distance to travel.
Look how we had some 34 hours to work this out
I have been waiting a long time for someone to plot like this and post their findings, but it hasn't happened yet. I know it is not easy until you get all the notions and potions locked firmly in the space between the ears. People trade out of habit be it a good habit or a bad one. How often do you take a trade without any idea of why you did it, let alone having a notion of entry, target and stop based upon a solid logic.
Any questions?
- #9,767
- Jun 8, 2024 11:45pm Jun 8, 2024 11:45pm
Hello Alan, i have some problems hope you can help me with.
How do i know if price will turn at which level?
For example, chart below is 4 June, H1 is Extreme RSI fast, cross H1 EMA for first time and not build bear support yet, also it at ABCD 50%. So when H1 close at 1, i take few buy on M5 DIV bull, price only turn back to upside when price cross H4 EMA.
Simple put, i think price will turn at EMA H1, but it not and only turn back at H4 EMA line. How do i know if price will turn at H1 EMA line/ H4 EMA line ? Or price will push through and create DIV at EMA swing before turn. I keep confuse this
How do i know if price will turn at which level?
For example, chart below is 4 June, H1 is Extreme RSI fast, cross H1 EMA for first time and not build bear support yet, also it at ABCD 50%. So when H1 close at 1, i take few buy on M5 DIV bull, price only turn back to upside when price cross H4 EMA.
Simple put, i think price will turn at EMA H1, but it not and only turn back at H4 EMA line. How do i know if price will turn at H1 EMA line/ H4 EMA line ? Or price will push through and create DIV at EMA swing before turn. I keep confuse this
{quote} I might be able to help with this as I have been here many times thinking price will turn on the EMA and it doesn't. H1 chart bear divergence at the top suggesting an EMA cross and target the last EMA swing. We are shorting at this point. ZOO points are the H1 EMA and H4 EMA Watching the M5 is indeed divergence all over the place so I only use the M5 for bull and bear support levels only. I use the M15 for more reliable signals in particular RSI14 making HH at the ZOO points in this case the H4 EMA, H1 also showing bull divergence. Is easy...
On real trade, my entry is on M5, and usually when M15 close at DIV possible. For example: Chart below, i entry at 1, 2 and 3 when M15 also close in DIV possible and M5 also in DIV (together with H1 RSI fast in extremely). And you suggest me entry at a (finish 2BT, or candle before that ??) or entry at b (after M15 form bull support possible? )
- #9,770
- Edited 6:28am Jun 9, 2024 5:36am | Edited 6:28am
- Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,996 Posts
- #9,772
- Jun 9, 2024 11:54am Jun 9, 2024 11:54am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
{quote} Thank 40PipsAlan, but make sure i understand correct, you mean i should use DIV signal on M15 AFTER they close? On real trade, my entry is on M5, and usually when M15 close at DIV possible. For example: Chart below, i entry at 1, 2 and 3 when M15 also close in DIV possible and M5 also in DIV (together with H1 RSI fast in extremely). And you suggest me entry at a (finish 2BT, or candle before that ??) or entry at b (after M15 form bull support possible? ) {image}
What is your target?
What is your stop?
I would have this drawn on my 15 min chart...
On Trade1. The target was the swing high average just about squeezing in my 40 pips even though it ran on much more.
On Trade 2. The target for price was the average swing low easily covering my 40 pips.
On Trade 3. The target was the average swing high, and it just made my 40 pips before fooling around finally making the price target after37 hours.
Your trade was tad early but should still be fine looking like this....
Things can and do go wrong so we have a money management plan to take care of business. For example, let's say for whatever reason we took the trade below...
Here we would have been stopped out and lost a whopping 1%.
So, the next trade we take compensates for it and we could make our 40 pips worth 3% risking 1.5%
- #9,775
- Jun 10, 2024 12:45am Jun 10, 2024 12:45am
I will try talk about my view on market.
H1 EMA try to attack 2728 and price may go to 2702. If EMA fail LL, then price may go to 2791
M15 EMA try 2716 and price maybe 2692. If EMA fail LL, price may go to 2795
Currently my view is heavy to downside, as bear support is form on both H1- M15, have successful retest. EMA unlikely to fail LL, unless some DIV bull form and bull support form. Downside target currently only around 20 -25 pip.
H1 EMA try to attack 2728 and price may go to 2702. If EMA fail LL, then price may go to 2791
M15 EMA try 2716 and price maybe 2692. If EMA fail LL, price may go to 2795
Currently my view is heavy to downside, as bear support is form on both H1- M15, have successful retest. EMA unlikely to fail LL, unless some DIV bull form and bull support form. Downside target currently only around 20 -25 pip.
- #9,779
- Edited 7:39am Jun 10, 2024 7:28am | Edited 7:39am
- Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 1,996 Posts
- #9,780
- Edited 8:31am Jun 10, 2024 8:15am | Edited 8:31am
- Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 6,378 Posts
Had these two planned today, and managed to miss both! First turned one pip from the swinglevel, and the second while I was on my only dog walk for the year. Frustrating times keeps going. Now I am unsure of what's next. {image}
The second one I saw was short on the 15 min chart but again the target was only about 35 pips, so again not interested.
The third was an RSI bull div on the 5 min and the target was almost 40 pips so I took that and got 38 pips. I then took a quick short to make up the difference.
This was my thinking on the 15 min chart....
The long trade was my preference because it was an RSI bull div at an average swing low level.
Notice how the bulls were unable to find support to take out the bear support.