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  • #3,521
  • Jun 8, 2024 1:47pm Jun 8, 2024 1:47pm
Quoting Bjos-Fx
I have been reading this thread this week. I am in. I am going to learn this style. Thank you PatienceFX for your efforts.
We are just trying to find the WHY behind price movement

Indicators use historical price, they do not answer the WHY QUESTION

Understanding the economy behind the price movement is the key
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  • #3,522
  • Jun 8, 2024 1:57pm Jun 8, 2024 1:57pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} We are just trying to find the WHY behind price movement Indicators use historical price, they do not answer the WHY QUESTION Understanding the economy behind the price movement is the key {image}
Wow! So that was what informed your decision to sell EU yesterday?
But how did you arrive at the 1.08 area as target?
  • #3,523
  • Jun 8, 2024 7:27pm Jun 8, 2024 7:27pm
buonasera. ho visto su FF template con Rsi 14 e Macd 12 26 9. intanto ho cambiato Rsi a 8 periodi ed ho tolto il macd. vorrei mettere ema T3 su Rsi 8. Mi sembra che sia piu' reattivo e loquace. io non ci sono riuscito. mi potete aiutare. Grazie
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  • #3,524
  • Jun 8, 2024 8:39pm Jun 8, 2024 8:39pm
Quoting Bjos-Fx
{quote} Wow! So that was what informed your decision to sell EU yesterday? But how did you arrive at the 1.08 area as target?
lets surprise you further

  1. on wednesday CPI comes in, i am expecting a higher CPI m/m
  2. and a lower core CPI m/m
  3. on thursday PPI should be lower m/m

so EU should react accordingly

  • #3,525
  • Jun 8, 2024 8:40pm Jun 8, 2024 8:40pm
Quoting modero
buonasera. ho visto su FF template con Rsi 14 e Macd 12 26 9. intanto ho cambiato Rsi a 8 periodi ed ho tolto il macd. vorrei mettere ema T3 su Rsi 8. Mi sembra che sia piu' reattivo e loquace. io non ci sono riuscito. mi potete aiutare. Grazie {image}
post your indicators here so i can help you
  • #3,526
  • Jun 8, 2024 8:50pm Jun 8, 2024 8:50pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} lets surprise you further on wednesday CPI comes in, i am expecting a higher CPI m/m and a lower core CPI m/m on thursday PPI should be lower m/m so EU should react accordingly
i use indicators only to confirm the news events

like i am expecting next month NFP to come much lower around 160K, so this may push eu north
  • #3,527
  • Jun 8, 2024 9:07pm Jun 8, 2024 9:07pm
beautiful example of fundamental news events

India Lok Sabha election results to be announced on June 4, exit polls come on June 1

so in the previous week closing may 31, index drops on election fears

June 1 exit polls forecast a landslide victory so o June 3 market opens with a gap up

on June 4 when actual rsult comes which is very disappointing -- the market crashes

i get to buy the index ETF near the lows

slowly as the week progresses it becomes clear a new stable government will be formed

market recovers all the losses

i got a sudden and the fastest 24% returns n one week

my question is

which rotten technical indicator can predict events like these -- if none then why should you depend on indicators
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  • #3,528
  • Jun 8, 2024 11:24pm Jun 8, 2024 11:24pm
Quoting PatienceFx
beautiful example of fundamental news events India Lok Sabha election results to be announced on June 4, exit polls come on June 1 so in the previous week closing may 31, index drops on election fears June 1 exit polls forecast a landslide victory so o June 3 market opens with a gap up on June 4 when actual rsult comes which is very disappointing -- the market crashes i get to buy the index ETF near the lows slowly as the week progresses it becomes clear a new stable government will be formed market recovers all the losses i got a sudden and the...

Fundamentals & techincal go hand in hand. I know traders that stay out when Fundamentals are in play & I know traders that trade only on Fundamentals. If you rely on indicators for either or... you're just making moves without even understanding why I like using indicators to back up what I already know. However Indicators WILLLL never work with fundamentals. ... I mean for now... IDK what kind of AI they might be working on lol.
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #3,529
  • Jun 8, 2024 11:38pm Jun 8, 2024 11:38pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} i use indicators only to confirm the news events like i am expecting next month NFP to come much lower around 160K, so this may push eu north
How will you then know if there were to be a prized-in ?
  • #3,530
  • Jun 8, 2024 11:41pm Jun 8, 2024 11:41pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} lets surprise you further on wednesday CPI comes in, i am expecting a higher CPI m/m and a lower core CPI m/m on thursday PPI should be lower m/m so EU should react accordingly
That reaction should be up or down?
Consistency is key
  • #3,531
  • Jun 9, 2024 9:29am Jun 9, 2024 9:29am
Anyways my investment style is different, I prefer equities over forex because I love passive income
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  • #3,532
  • Jun 9, 2024 11:20am Jun 9, 2024 11:20am
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} That reaction should be up or down?
Unless the CPI and inflation rate do not come down, interest rates cannot be cut

The federal reserve target in inflation rate is 2%

The common thing about PPI numbers is that above 50 it is good for the currency below 50 it is bad for the currency

So whether it is ISM manufacturing or services both react accordingly

Right now with bank landing rate of 5.5%, the credit card rate will be much higher, the mortgage rate will be much higher

The interest rate 5.5% is bank to bank lending rate it is not Bank to consumer lending rate
  • #3,533
  • Jun 9, 2024 11:52am Jun 9, 2024 11:52am
D1 and H4 technical analysis

#Beautiful baby Bears
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  • #3,534
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:03pm Jun 9, 2024 12:03pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} Unless the CPI and inflation rate do not come down, interest rates cannot be cut The federal reserve target in inflation rate is 2% The common thing about PPI numbers is that above 50 it is good for the currency below 50 it is bad for the currency So whether it is ISM manufacturing or services both react accordingly Right now with bank landing rate of 5.5%, the credit card rate will be much higher, the mortgage rate will be much higher The interest rate 5.5% is bank to bank lending rate it is not Bank to consumer lending rate
Does that mean that, to achieve an inflation rate target of 2%, interest rate must be cut?
  • #3,535
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:22pm Jun 9, 2024 12:22pm
Quoting Bjos-Fx
{quote} Does that mean that, to achieve an inflation rate target of 2%, interest rate must be cut?
no cuts in 2024
  • #3,536
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:24pm Jun 9, 2024 12:24pm
Next Wednesday Eurozone and US CPI , but mostly the Fed rates decision , can fully bounce the Euro above 1.09 towards 1.10 - The Weekly Technical picture remains bullish.
  • #3,537
  • Jun 9, 2024 12:33pm Jun 9, 2024 12:33pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} no cuts in 2024
If I may ask, why?
  • #3,538
  • Jun 9, 2024 3:20pm Jun 9, 2024 3:20pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} no cuts in 2024
Be lucky if there is a cut in 2025. I'm thinking 2026 with a possible raise before then.
  • #3,539
  • Jun 9, 2024 5:16pm Jun 9, 2024 5:16pm
US
As long as the demand for goods/services and bank loans are maintained at an acceptable level, the interest rate will not decrease. Some corrections may occur; for example, starting with May 21, the prices of goods (oil, copper, aluminum) decrease. This is confirmed by the ISM manufacturing PMI / PRICES published on June 3. We are still in the contraction phase of the economic cycle. There is still time until the decline of this cycle. In addition, there are elections in November and inflation must be kept close to 2. Higher monthly incomes, expenses that are maintained, the increase in the number of employed people, the rate of bank loans is maintained, all of these feed the demand. SP500 has diverged on D1, and DXY is rising.

EU
I think the first sign that the "interest rate" was coming down was the drop in the "lending rate" indicator. In other words, the interest rate is kept high by the central bank until the volume of new loans granted by banks drops to a critical level.

This is just a personal opinion; I still have a lot to learn.
  • #3,540
  • Jun 9, 2024 6:56pm Jun 9, 2024 6:56pm
Eurusd gaps down on EU parliamentary elections

My 1.08 forecast proved right
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