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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,381
  • Jul 8, 2007 8:57pm Jul 8, 2007 8:57pm
Does a Double Bottom have to be equal lows?
Usd/Cad

What does it really matter ?------------------------------------------

-Controlling the Risk of the individual trade and keeping
the stop as small as possible-

I'snt this what trading is all about ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-06-2007-#3.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #1,382
  • Jul 8, 2007 9:33pm Jul 8, 2007 9:33pm
ssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cesar might be looking !!!
  • #1,383
  • Jul 8, 2007 9:34pm Jul 8, 2007 9:34pm
So now are we automatically starting a new wave 1 going up ?? I hope so for my little long trade for 30 pips !!!
  • #1,384
  • Jul 8, 2007 10:39pm Jul 8, 2007 10:39pm
Usd/Cad

Longer Term - Update
-----------------------------------
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,385
  • Edited Jul 9, 2007 8:51am Jul 8, 2007 10:43pm | Edited Jul 9, 2007 8:51am
Usd/Cad Pg-2
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  • #1,386
  • Jul 9, 2007 3:27am Jul 9, 2007 3:27am
Added longs @0458
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,387
  • Jul 9, 2007 4:50am Jul 9, 2007 4:50am
Quoting OrionsWay
Added longs @0458
I am not a USD/CAD trader, but I have been in contact with a few individuals from Canada. They say theconomy is real hot right now, which has me hesitant on this low area, are you thinking that this area would be close to the low right now on this pair.

I don't trade this pair at all, but have been real interested with it's continual strength. If you could give me some heads up I would appreciate it.

Thanks,

Ken
  • #1,388
  • Jul 9, 2007 5:02am Jul 9, 2007 5:02am
Monarch, I am Canadian living abroad. as for a bottom bottom i dont think so but near term perhaps for a short while. Cad is HOT absolutely, commodities and mergers and aquisition been its fuel along with Ameridollar speculations. From what i understand Legislature is amending any more selling out of the country so M&A will slow dramatically.

Near term if we are not there we are very very close
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,389
  • Jul 9, 2007 5:50am Jul 9, 2007 5:50am
usdcad long stopped out for -25 pips sometime last week.

doing ok on other trades.

tomorrow is cad interest rate statement.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,390
  • Jul 9, 2007 6:33am Jul 9, 2007 6:33am
why are people still catching falling knives around here? why not wait until a reversal has become a true uptrend, like setting a buystop around 1.08??

Quoting bravado
usdcad long stopped out for -25 pips sometime last week.

doing ok on other trades.

tomorrow is cad interest rate statement.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #1,391
  • Jul 9, 2007 6:36am Jul 9, 2007 6:36am
Quoting cgldsmth
why are people still catching falling knives around here? why not wait until a reversal has become a true uptrend, like setting a buystop around 1.08??
heh.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #1,392
  • Jul 9, 2007 6:38am Jul 9, 2007 6:38am
Quoting marketwavez
Does a Double Bottom have to be equal lows?
Usd/Cad

What does it really matter ?------------------------------------------

-Controlling the Risk of the individual trade and keeping
the stop as small as possible-

I'snt this what trading is all about ?
I think it matters. It is no longer a double bottom.
  • #1,393
  • Jul 9, 2007 7:15am Jul 9, 2007 7:15am
Quoting cgldsmth
why are people still catching falling knives around here? why not wait until a reversal has become a true uptrend, like setting a buystop around 1.08??


There is no money in confirmation or very little, momentum fund black box systems wait for confirmation and have their heads handed to them constantly. Picking bottoms tops isnt easy or maybe it can be if you know what to look for and if wrong get out. But If right you have cpl 3 point lead on the market. Right where the people who move the market are positioned, and we know if they support it, it wont be breached or sustained below their except to shake out weak holders before moving hard in theor direction. Bottoms and tops are very low risk trades in my opinion, with highest bang for the buck(rewards)
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,394
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:12am Jul 9, 2007 8:12am
e/c bounced off support as expected but is not acting normal perhaps a bit loonie.double top the high is two pips lower closed out my long looks like a nother attempt lower is in the cards
  • #1,395
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:36am Jul 9, 2007 8:36am
Quoting OrionsWay
Monarch, I am Canadian living abroad. as for a bottom bottom i dont think so but near term perhaps for a short while. Cad is HOT absolutely, commodities and mergers and aquisition been its fuel along with Ameridollar speculations. From what i understand Legislature is amending any more selling out of the country so M&A will slow dramatically.

Near term if we are not there we are very very close
AFAICS, the anti-M&A is still just in the chatter-from-the-NDP stage, ATM. OTOH, the darling of the US economy (hi-tech) is continuing to look north, in part because of US immigration/HS issues - for example, Microsoft is opening a new software development center in BC. Oil is still rising; ethanol is going to put even more support under Canadian commodities. I tend to agree with cgldsmth, no reason to long this pair till at least 1.08, at least in any significant way.
  • #1,396
  • Jul 9, 2007 8:50am Jul 9, 2007 8:50am
HalifaxCB, yea USA isnt concidered selling out in my opinion north and south been pals forever. Parity is a must most definately LT but i just think it will need some help getting there like longs covering will sell orders added to dominant orderflow at right time. Just think we need to muster up that steam before it can take place, and if thats the case then we are at the bottom now for a little while perhaps if not try again later but no selling the bottom for this guy.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,397
  • Jul 9, 2007 9:50am Jul 9, 2007 9:50am
If cad decides to raise interest rates 1/4 of a point what will happen to this pair ? Any opinions.....Thanks....
  • #1,398
  • Jul 9, 2007 11:07am Jul 9, 2007 11:07am
Quoting OrionsWay
There is no money in confirmation or very little
Oh man, my eyes are bleeding!
  • #1,399
  • Jul 9, 2007 11:15am Jul 9, 2007 11:15am
Quoting WTB
Oh man, my eyes are bleeding!

may like to see a doctor about that LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,400
  • Jul 9, 2007 12:06pm Jul 9, 2007 12:06pm
"that's a stay flat opportunity. i don't understand what's going on with u-cad so i'm just a watcher for now."

Personally, I think resistance for the loonie will be found at 1.0502 or lower, then see a move towards 1.0397. After that, I look for a big move UP. I'd take a serious look at some of the loonie crosses at that point. CAD/CHF, particularly, should get crushed. About the time the USD/CAD is done heading DOWN, the USD/CHF should be done correcting UP, circa 1.2250. Just my opinion, but that's what I'm looking for.
BTW, this is my 1st post in this forum, so I hope it turned out okay.
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