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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,561
  • May 29, 2024 2:57am May 29, 2024 2:57am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} If this doesn't stabilise at 8000 I'm bailing...
I'm out. That was like swimming the el channel....
  • #3,562
  • May 29, 2024 2:58am May 29, 2024 2:58am
Quoting samgribbles
{quote} Nice one. While I've been in the thread in the background for a while I have just gone back to post #1 and working through. Haven't come across it yet - what is the source that publishes date and time of dividend adjustments for various indices pls?
IG Div Adjustments
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,563
  • May 29, 2024 12:36pm May 29, 2024 12:36pm
Even though the FTSE DIVI was small it would have still worked out, closed the gap almost immediately...
  • #3,564
  • May 29, 2024 11:25pm May 29, 2024 11:25pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
Even though the FTSE DIVI was small it would have still worked out, closed the gap almost immediately...
Rob, let me see if I am identifying the trade correctly. My chart below is 1m, 1st candle is 1629 LON time. Post div, would you buy on the 2nd green candle (1631)? And where is your exit - 20min later around 1650?

Thanks in advance.
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  • #3,565
  • May 30, 2024 7:12am May 30, 2024 7:12am
Hedged and turnt my ship just following the waves, left alot of profit on the table but neither me or my dog knew that USDCAD was going to have a lovely uptrend, except for waveskierrob his chart analysis is crazy if anyone has seen so he probably knew already
+10.1% since inception
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  • #3,566
  • May 30, 2024 12:16pm May 30, 2024 12:16pm
Quoting samgribbles
{quote} Rob, let me see if I am identifying the trade correctly. My chart below is 1m, 1st candle is 1629 LON time. Post div, would you buy on the 2nd green candle (1631)? And where is your exit - 20min later around 1650? Thanks in advance. {image}
I'm no expert, Terry (T721) would be a better choice to ask, yes I would BUY just before 16:30 LON time then BUY again just after the drop not saying this is right but that's what I do, if the gap doesn't fill I would just carry on hedging and averaging my trades until in profit (see start of thread) ...
  • #3,567
  • May 31, 2024 8:00am May 31, 2024 8:00am
Had a comment from someone who's using the EAs I posted a little while back, seems they aren't suitable as they went into DD for a while this week. I appreciate the "valley of despair" element of longer term trading, with this style, isn't for everyone; especially those looking for steady, consistent profits with no DD, but this sounds like a search for the Holy Grail to me (I guess that's not to say it doesn't exist). This is probably why some struggle as they are constantly looking for a cash mermaid without accepting there will be losses.

Had quite a relatively large position go south myself this week but have worked my way (almost) back to BE, maybe patience and realistic expectations can be an edge in itself. The EAs still working by the way: +21% in 31 weeks.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,568
  • May 31, 2024 9:23am May 31, 2024 9:23am
Example of hedging and turning the other way until it turns back and ill resume in the same direction to get out of all the trades, I do this all the time turning back and forth
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  • #3,569
  • Jun 2, 2024 4:26am Jun 2, 2024 4:26am
Quoting LazyTrades
Had a comment from someone who's using the EAs I posted a little while back, seems they aren't suitable as they went into DD for a while this week. I appreciate the "valley of despair" element of longer term trading, with this style, isn't for everyone; especially those looking for steady, consistent profits with no DD, but this sounds like a search for the Holy Grail to me (I guess that's not to say it doesn't exist). This is probably why some struggle as they are constantly looking for a cash mermaid without accepting there will be losses. Had...
Great post, I remember when I first started out thinking why doesn't someone just tell me when to BUY and SELL and I'll just do that, markets are constantly always changing, what worked last week, month, year, wont necessarily work next week, month, year, focus more on MM rather than entries and exits, not saying I'm right but try it yourself in real time demo, flip a coin and trade your positions rather than the markets, your positions you have control over the markets you don't..., thanks LT for proving so far you don't need to try and predict the markets...
  • #3,570
  • Jun 2, 2024 4:39am Jun 2, 2024 4:39am
Terry's DIVI trades 100% for me so far but remember this could change, so look after your bank and make hay while the sun shines..., FTSE looking good Wednesday...
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  • #3,571
  • Jun 2, 2024 4:50am Jun 2, 2024 4:50am
Quoting Waveskierrob
Terry's DIVI trades 100% for me so far but remember this could change, so look after your bank and make hay while the sun shines..., FTSE looking good Wednesday...{image}
Did you take the Dow div off Friday lows ? filled gap nicely. i dont get in prior to any Dow divs till after the drop. You will understand why when you look at last week the drop was huuuuge
  • #3,572
  • Jun 2, 2024 4:59am Jun 2, 2024 4:59am
Quoting T721
{quote} Did you take the Dow div off Friday lows ? filled gap nicely. i dont get in prior to any Dow divs till after the drop. You will understand why when you look at last week the drop was huuuuge
had to wait 2 days to fill and was underwater 2 positions for a while but patience pays eventually
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  • #3,573
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:00am Jun 2, 2024 5:00am
Quoting T721
{quote} Did you take the Dow div off Friday lows ? filled gap nicely. i dont get in prior to any Dow divs till after the drop. You will understand why when you look at last week the drop was huuuuge
No missed out, just FTSE and CAC for the moment until I get more confidant, when was last weeks DOW DIVI, I've notice this Friday it's 21:00 UK time, seems a bit strange to have it just before the weekend close, still it is the markets so nothing makes sense...
  • #3,574
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:02am Jun 2, 2024 5:02am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} No missed out, just FTSE and CAC for the moment until I get more confidant, when was last weeks DOW DIVI, I've notice this Friday it's 21:00 UK time, seems a bit strange to have it just before the weekend close, still it is the markets so nothing makes sense...
Dow always 9pm thats why i leave it to drop then see if i want it
  • #3,575
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:02am Jun 2, 2024 5:02am
Quoting T721
{quote} had to wait 2 days to fill and was underwater 2 positions for a while but patience pays eventually {image}
you've already posted the answer before the question, maybe you Terry and you alone can predict the future...
  • #3,576
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:04am Jun 2, 2024 5:04am
Quoting T721
{quote} Dow always 9pm thats why i leave it to drop then see if i want it
Dow div was Wednesday
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  • #3,577
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:05am Jun 2, 2024 5:05am
Quoting Waveskierrob
Even though the FTSE DIVI was small it would have still worked out, closed the gap almost immediately...
Yeah i leave the little ones alone as they sometimes dont give you the chance to get in
  • #3,578
  • Jun 2, 2024 5:12am Jun 2, 2024 5:12am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} you've already posted the answer before the question, maybe you Terry and you alone can predict the future...
i wish
  • #3,579
  • Jun 3, 2024 6:53am Jun 3, 2024 6:53am
update since my hedge
all hedges still open but equity is now at 12.6%
so since I hedged I've gained 1%ish if I closed everything right now but as im gaining profit on the one side the chances of price returning to my original non hedged direction increase so when it turns ill just bank back on that side. this is the gist of how I trade you can do this manually aswell its pretty simple im just terrible at following my own rules so had to employ some algo help but this is doable manually 100%
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  • #3,580
  • Jun 4, 2024 3:17am Jun 4, 2024 3:17am
Hedges closed manually, going the other way now I think will try to exit my positions taken last week with a profit
equity 16% up
Hedging, averaging and I cant predict shit all even if I tried
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