Discretionary systems with mechanical approach

Hi ,

I have been trading just over 4 years , still not profitable . The first 3 years consisted of trading discretionary and studying the markets + putting in the hours daily on the charts.

The past 12 months I have been on the tedious journey of backtesting and finding a profitable system. 2 months ago I felt I had found my system which is right for me . It is a discretionary lower timeframe entry model(15m) in sync with discretionary HTF levels (W/D/4H) that I have broken down into simpler terms, so I understand exactly what and where I am looking for these patterns to form, with the focus on this being to minimise the decision making process.

It is W/D/4H Break and Retest levels or SFP's (Learned this from Tom Dante) in sync with the ICT Breaker Block entry on the 15m , I want to see it form and look a certain way at a certain time for me to get in. I use standard deviations of the breaker for TP , and at 0.5R in profit I trail my stops 50% as I know from my backtests this saves R and for me mentally is better.

I was curious if anyone trades this way also or with these techniques. We can use this to grow together.

I am going to be using this as a journal from now on , keeping this updated with my current goals and where my trading / mindset is. I am currently on Phase 2 of a 100k challenge sitting at -2.3%. 1% risk per trade.

WEDNESDAY 29TH MARCH 2024

EUR/AUD +1.1% (1% RISK)

Had to get out early due to news dropping in 5 minutes and me not having any interest in data that I would not be able to use with reference to live trading.
Cool , composed , liked what I seen. Decided to get in early at the IH (Internal high) before waiting for the HH to be broken. The reason for this was because I seen the pattern forming in my head , I seen the V shape that I like when breakers form so I was content with breaking my rules to get better RR.

100K PHASE 2 @ 1.1% in drawdown.

Focused on process , showing up every day , repeating pre/post trade disciplines and taking trades I like that align with , my edge.

THURSDAY 30TH MAY 2024 :

EUR/AUD LONGS -0.5% (1% RISK)

Managed a loss well today , executed a VSB I liked that was in sync with a re-tap of a 4H BRT level. We were also in a D BRT to the downside but I didn't care , I liked the 4H level and VSB and thought we could see a move higher into the D BRT for another tap.

The biggest takeaway from today is that whilst in this move I noticed a difference in state of delivery in comparison to GBP/AUD . Firstly GA took PDH , EA failed to = weakness. While I watched the two , 15m bullish engulfing was forming on GA as EA was not moving. I wanted to get out as stated in the image , but did not as I have no data yet on wether or not that works so did not want to collapse the trade , something I was okay with and content with whatever outcome may occur. GA actually produced a lovely setup but the breaker high was formed outside of our rules , In sync with a DBRT retap , was v clean wanted to go short but obviously did not.

100k Phase 2 : -1.6%

FRIDAY 31ST MAY 2024

USD/JPY LONGS +0.1%

Closed this position 5 minutes before news due to my rules of only collecting data I would be able to apply to live trading. I would not be holding positions as news hits because of the potential of violating my firms rules.

Was confident in the move , have seen SFP's like this one holding strong before. Strong move away from that level on the HTF , a lot of liquidity under it.

Nice VSB , was not the cleanest , don't know how to describe why ? It just wasn't, I guess the time it took for low - high to be closed was a little longer than I would like.

Managed the trade well , wanted to get out at about 0.4R but held until 5 minutes before because that is what I have been doing with the other moves where news was releasing soon.

There was SMT W/GJ , UJ made HH , GJ failed to , the continued up breaking the high 30 mins later.

Emotions were almost non existent.

100k Phase 2 : -1.49%

TUESDAY 4TH JUNE 2024

EUR/GBP LONGS -0.5%

Very clean D SFP pattern , looking to trade in sync with that with the VSB that formed during LKZ . Was a clean move , I liked both the LTF and HTF pattern , price came back to take us out at our trailed stop loss.

I did want to intervene when I seen volume come into the market once 1STD was hit . Decided not to obviously as the plan is to stick to the 2STD target and evaluate once more trades have occurred.

Missed a A+ long on XAU yesterday since I was not at the charts ... unfortunate.

I feel calm , even whilst being in DD .. If this pattern does not work , honestly I do not know what else to do... I will have to go back and re assess, chances are I will backtest this pattern across 8/9 pairs and the best 3 I will trade off of. So far EU 2023 has outperformed XAU + GA + EN tremendously. Why that would be? Not sure .. rangey PA maybe?

Need to just keep executing this and see where it takes us.

100K Phase 2 -1.95%

WEDNESDAY 5TH JUNE 2024

EUR/CAD SHORTS : -0.9%

If I zoom in on the breaker it is clean but in comparison to the breaker that formed 2 days prior it looks skinny and looked poised for a FBOS X INDU .. Do I regret taking it? Yes .. It was not the cleanest , not much space between the PA. Wanted to get out immediately when I seen a clean VSB to the upside potentially fomring but held because that is the plan. If I see a potential VSB forming to the opposite direction again I will collapse trade , was really not feeling the VSB even though it was V shaped when I zoomed in .. I need to be 100% confident.

Definitely feel myself starting to not trust my model as much .. went backtesting other systems or HTF levels where price reacts and i need to stop and just trust the model until it blows up.. I do need to do more backtesting and pick the best 8-10 pairs out of 18 and then look for other HTF poi's to trade in sync with the VSB.

Keep going , don't lose faith yet .. be more precise , be confident 100% in every VSB.

100K PHASE 2 : -2.8%

THURSDAY 6TH JUNE 2024

AUD/USD LONG : -0.9%
EUR/CAD SHORT : -1.1%

Terrible day today , did the most stupidest thing a trader can do and that is that without realizing there is a very high impact news event dropping. Did not even pay attention to the fact ECB Interest rates were being announced. Got spiked out of that trade when I should not have even been it it.. idiot..

The AUD long was poor as well , it was a vsb but I knew right after I got in it it was not meant to be , the rounded PA to the upside was classic fakeout material.. Me thinking like this made myself believe my SL was gonna be hit so I got out early to save a whopping 0.1% only for price to then reverse to BE ... anyone who says this game is easy is a waffler. But , my emotions were pretty calm considering the absolute shit day I had .. did not go on tilt.

I took one huge takeaway from my mishaps today and poorly executed trades. That was the realisation I need to be much more precise with the HTF levels I am trading .. The HTF 4H BRT on AUD/USD was so fucking shit it's laughable yet I took the trade because "it's in line with my rules". That's the issue here as to why we are not making money. I am very good at being disciplined and following rules , I need to have clear and defined rules to follow.

I am focusing on two things Tom Dante has spoken about.

1- "Getting in at the source" : The reason I want to trade off the w/d/4h levels is cause all I want to capture is the reaction.. This breaker pattern I have been trading does not suit that .. too much waiting for BOS and return to levels .. This is what the rest of retail is doing! I want to trade an entry pattern that forms before the breaker even forms , so I am in before retail get in. This will get me in at the highest point of the reaction. SL will be tighter but RR will be better and I will have less "oh is this a vsb or not" going on in my head. The rules will be clear and concise.

2 - Rounded PA and volatile moves : I want to see these new HTF levels trades into with aggression and engulfing candles on the HTF whilst leaving fair space behind it. No more getting in at rangey shit HTF PA we won't get the results we want with that. Retail will look to go long I will look to go short and only want to capture a reaction on the HTF.

When I backtest this model I need to remind myself that I am trading roughly 18 pairs and if I see few trades occur over my 3 or so hours backtesting , to look at the bigger picture and not get impatient . This will be model 1 . I will then test the model on LTF , e.g 1h acting as htf poi, 5m acting as ltf entry . The goal is to have 2 models that give me 4/5 opportunities a week on average .

100K PHASE 2 - -4.7%

UPDATE

Been thinking heavily for the past 24 hours on where to go next and without a doubt I need to build a system that I know in and out. I need to know exactly what I am looking for from a HTF perspective and LTF perspective . Been testing like a mad man and incorporating mostly what I have learned or heard Tom Dante say .. which has only now hit me as to how vital it is , the way in which price trades into these levels is something I did not take seriously .. but will be taking seriously from now on.

I have called it game over because I do believe this is the one .. i know I can execute trades with discipline , I just need to find great edge and understand it . I will begin live testing with it next week since it is only a Phase 2 account not real money (even though I really want to pass) but like always , my goal is to learn not earn for now.

It will take me time to backtest as there is a lot more analysis involved. What I will be doing though is seeing how it performed since the start of this year on 8 pairs - EU/GU/XAU/GA/AU/UC/EC/UC

Will see the results and if I am happy begin testing more pairs from the beginning of this year. Then start testing results last year. But I have confidence it has edge due to the fact I have seen these patterns repeat often .. my issue was disregarding overall narrative for when these levels are traded into. One thing I have learned after 12 months of solid backtesting trying to find real edge , is to not get excited when a new revelation comes to fruition ..wait for results to show...but I can't help it I love this game ..

I will share 2 versions of the LTF entries I will be testing to see which has more edge. Do not want to share the HTF levels yet because once I do make it in this game and make a name for myself in the industry this page will be open for anyone to see .. and why would i share my edge that I have worked so hard on for free (or will have worked so hard on by the time people see it.)