New Zealand's Dollar `Overvalued' and Will Weaken, Says Goff

How are investors going to ignore such a open warning i dont know,
beware come out before its too late....




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d_cur rencies
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

hmmm interesting. Thanks for that.

"We don't think it will stay at that level and those that choose to speculate on it risk getting their fingers burnt."

Until he changes this to WILL GET their fingers burnt, I will continue as normal. CARRY!

Maybe they should stop raising their interest rate if they are so worried about carry trades. NZD/JPY to da moon!


EDIT:

Folks, don't let these guys scare you away from good trades. Look http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s...py%3Dx%2C+QQQQ

If they couldn't stop the NZD crosses then, they won't now. These are trends that will only be stopped if there is global unwinding of everything. That would likely include all AUD crosses, GBP crosses, EURO crosses, NZD crosses, equities markets and everything else. Those are all shown on the chart (minus a few). I may be wrong about this, I am not as well read as many, though NZD will not go unless others do as well. Worldwide collapse, doomsday.

sayig "will" might risk the NZD collapsing very quickly. so i presume to avoid any nasty changes he said "risky". What he said is true and think this way,
If the companies are shutting down and busin conf is going down then next move for the bank would be down isint?
Anyway

we will know by tomm....

Thanks a lot for the link, I believe it is high time i come out because i have been long since 0.7595 and it would definately not be a very good idea to go against the trade minister of New Zealand.
The recent pattern of shooting star on a candle stick is also a bearish sign.

StockKJay dont panic , you can still come out of your longs , it wont crash relax ,but what i was thinking is , it may be time for the graph to turn down.. what are your thoughts...

Overvalued?

Like I heard that so many times since October and since then it has climbed 1300 pips!

Exactly!!

What's more important is that this is coming from a political official, and not RBNZ. I would take it as a hint that the gov't of NZ has finally realized that small economies cannot really set independent monetary policies (away from the norm) to address issues like inflation; they have to be set through fiscal methods.

Perhaps, they should start printing more and more NZD currency.. that should devaluate their money - albeit increasing inflation unfortunately...

Unless other CBs join in and start selling their holdings of NZD it won't matter.

If I sounded in a panic, it wasn't my intention. I just was stating that I don't think that a collapse, that includes a fall from NZD on any large scale will happen soon at all. And when it does happen with NZD on a large scale, it will go beyond just NZD and there will be massive fireworks in all the markets.

A similar discussion came up a month ago. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post1463299

NZD/JPY up 400+ pips since then.

I also said these on the other NZD threath, central bank and guverment knew what are the consequences of such a high yield before they choose this path to fight inflation. now they are taking it's consequences...

Central bank now fights inflation, that why they have such a big yield, (which means the money suply is far bigger then the demand for that money) and by printing other NZD, they'll only make it worser...

They probably now better then all of us, here, what they are doing (hope so...)

All this carry trade idioticy could've been prevented by the morons at the BoJ. Last Summer they had a credible data run that should've seen them hike at least twice. Instead they stood pat and now we have what we have.

10 Years ago, many South East Asian Nations have very strong currencies.
Speculators (Soros) sold a ton of these monies and as Malaysian PM Mahathir had said, "effectively robbed them of billions in Reserve money".

So what if NZ economy suffers from a very strong NZD? One thing Ive learned is that speculators dont give a hoot to a country's misery as long as they run away with the money!

All these talk about NZ economy going down due to strong NZD will not get into the conscience of the speculators. If NZ wants to devalue the NZD, act on it not talk about it!

Seem to me (but I am no expert) that if they really wanted to devalue the NZD by just talking about it they would start talking about cutting interest rates?

I think we are forgetting the Central Bank's main responsibility....fighting inflation....repercussions such as the carry trade caused by raising rates are necessary evils. The only step that a CB can take is to devalue its currency, and it may not have such a power. The best bet is not to time the market and sell at the top, but rather stay with the trend until it bends

RBNZ have already acted by selling NZD [in small amounts] 3 times in june without success. And further asked help from BOJ . That tells us how desperate they are to devaluate NZD.
Will they go big by selling in huge amounts ?
Introduce property tax?
Introduce capital gains tax in NZD?
Give clue to decrease or leave Interest rates as it is? [will know soon]
Or let investors to continue on carry trades till the exporters die and their trade balance goes in deep red?


Soon we will know... Till then i think NZD wont go higher with this uncertanity and the fear of RBNZ intervention in big amounts.
I closed my position anyway..
Happy trading pros ...

Devalue?....Oh, I almost forgot! On January 1, 2005, a new currency TRY(Turkish lira) was introduced. The new lira was worth 1,000,000 old lira. The attachment is Turkish lira's interest rate(current interest rate is 17.5%). However, in current Japan, also TRY/JPY and EUR/ISK are getting popular with individuals who aim for interest-rate swap.

No offence, but I didn't buy NZD because I know scale of New Zealand's economy is equal to a securities company and NZ population are 4.18 million(Japan's population are 127 million).
As we know, many people including Japanese fret about fund management, for example, Japanese household financial assets total about 1,530 trillion yen. We heard foreign currencies occupy only 3%(about 40 trillion yen) of Japanese household financial assets. Mr.Fukui seemed to want us to shift individual financial assets from savings to investment.
In my opinion, I haven't thought of the superstrong yen unless Japan goes ahead with nuclear armament. Of course, I understand Japan has to depend on US military forces for Japan's protection and I think Japan must emphasize the importance of adherence to the Japan-US Security Agreements.

This month Toyota financial services securities will float a loan(NZ bonds/maturity is 2009). In NZD/JPY, some seem to wait for "Osime(means buying on dips)Japan"(we call Japan's national soccer team "Osim Japan", Mr.Ivica Osim is currently the manager of Japan). I think NZD/JPY will continue bought for a while.