USDCAD trend reversal? | Page 69 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

Trend Reversal Confirmed? 0 replies

POLL- Trend Reversal or Retracement 0 replies

Are we close to TREND REVERSAL? 5 replies

Attachments: USDCAD trend reversal?
Exit Attachments

USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,361
  • Jul 6, 2007 10:56am Jul 6, 2007 10:56am
UPDATE- Usd/Cad
-------------------------------
Maybe this will stabilize next week ?......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-7-06-2007-#2.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #1,362
  • Jul 6, 2007 11:01am Jul 6, 2007 11:01am
Quoting marketwavez
A simple channel was there all along .......
- all we had to do was watch with way price would break .....
So did you short the channel break or not? Looks like a short was good for nearly 100 pips.
  • #1,363
  • Jul 6, 2007 12:06pm Jul 6, 2007 12:06pm
One should also take a look at oil - well over 70$ and not a hurricane in sight. At least not on this side of the world.
  • #1,364
  • Jul 6, 2007 12:29pm Jul 6, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting southernmind
You have some balls to go long on usd/cad given the fact that the numbers this morning were good and an interest rate statement is due next week.
These guys have been trying to go long on this thing since it was back at 1.11. Should be no surprise really.
  • #1,365
  • Jul 6, 2007 12:41pm Jul 6, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting rbock
These guys have been trying to go long on this thing since it was back at 1.11. Should be no surprise really.

LOL, had heads handed to them before now shy. Timing is everything
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,366
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:07pm Jul 6, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting OrionsWay
LOL, had heads handed to them before now shy. Timing is everything
LOL Timing is everything, although I don't think the time is right on this one yet. Although you may get a small retracement.
Personally I think you guys spend to much time on 10 min and 15 min charts for a trend that has been going on for almost 4 months. If you look at a day chart with just a simple 10 & 20 EMA the last time they crossed was March 21. To me anyway that should tell you something.
I wish you guys luck. I'm done riding this down for now because I think its going to get choppy now, although there is plenty of room for it to go, especially if oil continues to go up. Remember the US gets more oil from Canada than any other country. Oils up to $72 today. That is probably driving alot of todays action.
And when this thing does finally turn around, I will be there with you guys. But the time is not right yet.
  • #1,367
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:55pm Jul 6, 2007 1:55pm
Quoting rbock
LOL Timing is everything, although I don't think the time is right on this one yet. Although you may get a small retracement.
Personally I think you guys spend to much time on 10 min and 15 min charts for a trend that has been going on for almost 4 months. If you look at a day chart with just a simple 10 & 20 EMA the last time they crossed was March 21. To me anyway that should tell you something.
More like 5 years, without more than maybe 10% retracement Would have made a great stock pick....
  • #1,368
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:14pm Jul 6, 2007 2:14pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
More like 5 years, without more than maybe 10% retracement Would have made a great stock pick....
Geez your right. I have looked at that chart and it never really sank in.
  • #1,369
  • Jul 6, 2007 3:44pm Jul 6, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting rbock
especially if oil continues to go up. Remember the US gets more oil from Canada than any other country. Oils up to $72 today. That is probably driving alot of todays action..
I am kind of new at this but I would like to know something. Like this case for example, the U.S gets a lot of it's oil from Canada, but it is my understanding that all the Oil in the world is payed for in U.S Dollars, so that factor should drive the dollar up because of the larger demand, no ? Which factor is "stronger" ? Even though the word isn't appropriate.

This is a key thing I need to understand in market fundementals, which side of the equation is the one to take ? For instance, I run this in my mind :

FED raises interest rates, this leads to :

Decreased dollar supply and liquidity in the market because a rising rate means that people and businesses would take less loans from the banks and deposit more money. So the decreased supply drives the price up

Is that correct ?
  • #1,370
  • Jul 6, 2007 6:41pm Jul 6, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting Kash
I am kind of new at this but I would like to know something. Like this case for example, the U.S gets a lot of it's oil from Canada, but it is my understanding that all the Oil in the world is payed for in U.S Dollars, so that factor should drive the dollar up because of the larger demand, no ? Which factor is "stronger" ? Even though the word isn't appropriate.

This is a key thing I need to understand in market fundementals, which side of the equation is the one to take ? For instance, I run this in my mind :

FED raises interest rates, this leads to :

Decreased dollar supply and liquidity in the market because a rising rate means that people and businesses would take less loans from the banks and deposit more money. So the decreased supply drives the price up

Is that correct ?
I believe you are right about oil being paid in US dollars. But lets say Canada gets all these US dollars, they have to change them to Canadian dollars to use them don't they? If they are getting more dollars for the same amount of oil then that would mean they have to sell more dollars to get their own currency. Right?
I tend to look it at like this (and I may be wrong also). Price of oil goes up that means gas and petroleum related products go up and consumers have less to spend on other things. That would mean a weak US economy. Weather FED raise interest rate, well it hasn't happened yet.
Actually I think the FED has a bit of a bind depending on how the sub prime loans problem plays out. If the sub prime problem get worse and they raise rates, that will make that problem alot worse. But if inflation starts to grow and they do nothing that problem gets worse.
Personally I think that is why the dollar is weak right now. No one really knows how bad the sub prime loan problem is and everyone is expecting the worst.
This is how I look at it. Anyone correct my mistakes please.
  • #1,371
  • Jul 6, 2007 7:20pm Jul 6, 2007 7:20pm
Quoting rbock
I believe you are right about oil being paid in US dollars.
This is how I look at it. Anyone correct my mistakes please.
If the price of Oil goes Up, then the Price of ehhh... Tomatos goes up. ie. the Cost of Living Rises.
Why? I'm in central Canada but can still buy tomatos in January. Where did the come from and how did they get here?
California and by road fueled by an Oil Derivative.
This is true for ALL commods whether it be bread {wheat}, Bacon {FPB}, breakfast Orange Juice {FOJC} and the List goes on.

Perhaps this may give you a better understanding as to why the world reacts to the price of Oil. AND... My example only considers Road Transportation. What happens when we bring in Air & Sea?

Oil is a member of the Royal Family and is considered by some to be king.

btw. there is a move afoot to peg Oil to the Euro. Will you be ready?
  • #1,372
  • Jul 6, 2007 9:14pm Jul 6, 2007 9:14pm
us is the biggest trading partner of canada, and most canadian product export to us. i think a strong loonie will hurt canadian economy. will fed or boc will do something?
  • #1,373
  • Jul 6, 2007 11:57pm Jul 6, 2007 11:57pm
euro/cad update we have retraced to the 618 fib of the previous trend reversal attempt 618= (1.4254) curent price 1.4300 current fundamentals favor the loonie atleast for one more day if we can stay above 1.4225 or so another reversal attempt should be in the making above 1.4500 this time successfully
  • #1,374
  • Jul 7, 2007 9:14am Jul 7, 2007 9:14am
Quoting yellowbrick
us is the biggest trading partner of canada, and most canadian product export to us. i think a strong loonie will hurt canadian economy. will fed or boc will do something?
I would doubt it, at least in the ST; the effects would have to show up in falling employment, falling total exports, or falling investment first. $/CAD has dropped some 35% since it's peak back in early 2002 , while the Canadian economy has continued to improve.
  • #1,375
  • Jul 8, 2007 12:36pm Jul 8, 2007 12:36pm
double bottom. i will Long when the market open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #1,376
  • Jul 8, 2007 2:50pm Jul 8, 2007 2:50pm
Quoting dragon
double bottom. i will Long when the market open
Far too early to call it a bottom considering Friday's close was only 30 pips off the 3 decade low hit earlier in the day. Why not wait until after Tuesday's rate decision?

``Today's data and a broader move in commodity prices negate any uncertainty regarding the Bank of Canada's rate hikes,'' said Jack Spitz, director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. ``The currency is well set to reach parity.'' There's that P-word again!
  • #1,377
  • Jul 8, 2007 4:58pm Jul 8, 2007 4:58pm
maybe history's count here is right. if no bounce we head much lower 1.01 Par area

Order flow will surely tell us regardless of what we think LOL
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_4.jpg Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_5.jpg Size: 75 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,378
  • Jul 8, 2007 6:43pm Jul 8, 2007 6:43pm
gents, tomorrow is the interest rate statement.
market expect 4.50%.

Can someone give me some pointer what will be your expectation?

if 4.50, Long or Short?
if unchanged, long or short?

I never tried CAD $ before, hope it is not like GU, such a sissy, last week, when rate increase,it move 45 pips and revert back -25 from previous closing.
  • #1,379
  • Jul 8, 2007 6:48pm Jul 8, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting zamans98
gents, tomorrow is the interest rate statement.
market expect 4.50%.

Can someone give me some pointer what will be your expectation?

if 4.50, Long or Short?
if unchanged, long or short?

I never tried CAD $ before, hope it is not like GU, such a sissy, last week, when rate increase,it move 45 pips and revert back -25 from previous closing.
A rate increase will probably find buying, unchanged wil probably find buying, sorry for bias opinion
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,380
  • Jul 8, 2007 8:53pm Jul 8, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting OrionsWay
A rate increase will probably find buying, unchanged wil probably find buying, sorry for bias opinion
I checked the U/C chart, wow, what a drastic movements last 2 weeks. scary!
1 trader viewing now