Special Thread: COT Data Analysis & Trading Signals

COT Net Bias Analysis for XAUUSD - Week Ending May 21, 2024

A: Non-Commercial
Individual Currencies:

1. GOLD: Net long with 43.3% of open interest. Increased by 20,864 contracts (9.8%) since last week.
2. USD INDEX: Net long with 8.8% of open interest. Decreased by -1,093 contracts (-23.7%) since last week.

Currency Pair:

1. Overall Net Bias: Bullish
2. Key Drivers:
   1. GOLD: Net long with 43.3% of open interest. Increased by 20,864 contracts (9.8%) since last week.
   2. USD INDEX: Net long with 8.8% of open interest. Decreased by -1,093 contracts (-23.7%) since last week.
   3. Open Interest: Overall open interest is increasing for Gold and decreasing for the USD Index, suggesting increased market participation in Gold and decreased participation in the USD Index.

Potential Market Implications:
The overall net bias for XAUUSD is bullish, primarily driven by the substantial net long position in Gold (43.3%) and the increase in net long positions. While the USD Index is also net long (8.8%), the magnitude of Gold's long position outweighs it, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment for Gold and a potential upward pressure on XAUUSD. The decrease in the net long position for the USD Index further reinforces the bullish sentiment. The diverging trends in open interest, with Gold's increasing and the USD Index's decreasing, indicate a potential shift in market focus towards Gold.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the bullish bias, traders might consider long positions on XAUUSD. The increase in Gold's net long position and the decrease in the USD Index's net long position, coupled with the increasing open interest in Gold, further support the bullish outlook. However, it's advisable to closely monitor market developments and incorporate other technical and fundamental analyses to confirm the bullish bias before entering any positions.

B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. GOLD:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-48.7%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decrease from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: -15,069 (-11.3%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: 11,484 (3.1%)

2. USD INDEX:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-10.2%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decrease from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: -1,083 (-12.7%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: -788 (-6.5%)

Net Bias for XAUUSD:

1. Overall Bias: Bullish
2. Rationale: The commercial net positions for both Gold and the USD Index are net short, indicating an overall bearish sentiment for the USD Index and a bullish sentiment for XAUUSD.

Potential Market Implications:
The bullish commercial bias for XAUUSD suggests a potential upward pressure on the currency pair. The decrease in the net short position for both Gold and the USD Index could indicate a weakening of the bearish sentiment for the USD Index. The overall bias remains bullish as both currencies are still net short, with a much larger net short position in Gold compared to the USD Index. The increasing open interest for Gold and the decreasing open interest for the USD Index suggest a potential shift in market focus towards Gold.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the bullish commercial bias, traders might consider long positions on XAUUSD. The decrease in the net short positions for both Gold and the USD Index, coupled with the diverging open interest trends, further support the bullish outlook. However, it's advisable to incorporate other technical and fundamental analyses to confirm the bullish bias before entering any positions.

C: TOTAL NET BIAS FOR BOTH COMMERCIAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL

Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:

1. Agreement/Disagreement: Both commercial and non-commercial traders are bullish on XAUUSD, as they are net long on Gold and net short on the USD Index.
2. Bias Strength: The non-commercial net long position in Gold is very strong (43.3%), while the commercial net short position is also very strong (-48.7%). The non-commercial and commercial net positions in the USD Index are both net long, but the commercial net short position is stronger (-10.2% vs. 8.8%).
3. Overall: The overall sentiment for XAUUSD is strongly bullish.

Final Net Bias for XAUUSD:

1. Overall Bias: Bullish

Rationale:
The final net bias for XAUUSD is assessed as bullish. This assessment is based on the fact that both commercial and non-commercial traders are net long on Gold and net short on the USD Index. The strength of the net long positions in Gold, especially from the non-commercial traders, indicates a strong bullish sentiment for XAUUSD.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the strong bullish bias, traders could consider long positions on XAUUSD. The increase in Gold's net long positions and the decrease in the USD Index's net long position, coupled with the increasing open interest in Gold and decreasing open interest in the USD Index, further support the bullish outlook. However, it's always advisable to incorporate other technical and fundamental analyses to confirm the bullish bias before entering any positions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

Live Signal:
- Pair: GBPAUD
- TF: M5
- Entry: BUY now @cmp

LIVE SIGNAL
- Pair: USDCHF
- TF: M5
- Entry: BUY @cmp

M5-Chart


COT Confluence:

COT Net Bias Analysis for USDCHF - Week Ending May 21, 2024

A: Non-Commercial
USD: Non-Commercial traders are net long USD, with a bias strength of 8.8% of open interest. This net long position decreased by 1,093 contracts (-23.7%) since the previous week. The decrease was driven by a reduction in both long and short positions, with long contracts falling by 1,390 (-4.7%) and short contracts falling by 2,473 (-9.0%). Open interest in USD is decreasing, suggesting a potential decline in speculative interest.
CHF: Non-Commercial traders are net short CHF, with a bias strength of -43.1% of open interest. This net short position saw a very slight decrease of 425 contracts (-1.0%) from the previous week. Long positions increased by 1,042 contracts (13.6%), while short positions increased by 580 contracts (1.2%). Open interest in CHF is relatively stable, indicating continued but steady interest in the Swiss Franc.

Currency Pair: The overall net bias for USDCHF is bullish, driven by the significant net long position in USD, despite the net short position in CHF. The decrease in the net long USD position and the slight decrease in the net short CHF position suggest a potential weakening of the bullish bias. However, the overall open interest for the pair is declining, which could indicate reduced market participation and potentially less upward pressure on the pair.

Potential Market Implications:
The current COT data suggests a bullish bias for USDCHF, but the weakening net long USD position and decreasing open interest indicate a potential moderation of this bias. Traders should closely monitor upcoming COT reports and other technical indicators to confirm if this trend continues. The decrease in open interest could lead to reduced liquidity and potentially increased volatility.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the current data, traders could consider the following strategies:

1. Cautious Long Positions: If the bullish bias is confirmed by other indicators, traders could consider entering long positions on USDCHF, but with careful risk management due to the potential for increased volatility.
2. Range-Bound Strategies: If the bullish bias weakens further or reverses, traders might explore range-bound strategies, as the pair could experience consolidation or a reversal.

B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. USD:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-10.2%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decrease from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: -1,083 (-12.7%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: -788 (-6.5%)

   
   

2. CHF:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Long (54.5%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Increase from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: 2,166 (2.9%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: 2,582 (12.9%)

   
   

Net Bias for USDCHF:

1. Overall Bias: Bullish
   1. Rationale: While commercials are net short USD, their net long position in CHF is much stronger, suggesting an overall bullish bias for USDCHF. The increase in the commercial net long CHF position further supports this bullish outlook.

   
   

Potential Market Implications:
The data suggests a bullish bias for USDCHF, primarily driven by the substantial net long position of commercial traders in CHF. The increase in this net long position indicates growing confidence in the Swiss Franc's strength relative to the US Dollar. This could lead to continued upward pressure on USDCHF.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the bullish bias, traders could consider:

1. Long Positions: Entering long positions on USDCHF, with appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk.
2. Call Options: Buying call options on USDCHF to potentially profit from further upward movement.

C: TOTAL NET BIAS FOR BOTH COMMERCIAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL

Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:

1. Agreement/Disagreement: Both commercial and non-commercial traders show conflicting biases for USD, but agree on a net long bias for CHF.
2. Bias Strength: The commercial net long position in CHF is much stronger than the non-commercial net long position in USD.
3. Final Net Bias for USDCHF: Bullish

Rationale:
The final net bias for USDCHF is bullish. While there is disagreement on the USD bias, the strong net long position of commercial traders in CHF outweighs the weaker net long position of non-commercial traders in USD. This suggests that the overall market sentiment favors the Swiss Franc's strength against the US Dollar.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the overall bullish bias, traders could consider:

1. Long Positions: Entering long positions on USDCHF, with appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk.
2. Call Options: Buying call options on USDCHF to potentially profit from further upward movement.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

Live Signal
Pair: EURCHF
TF: m5
Entry: BUY @cmp

COT Net Bias Analysis for XAUUSD - Week Ending May 28, 2024

Currency Pair:

1. Overall Net Bias: Bullish
2. Key Drivers:
   1. Gold: Net Long with 48.8% of open interest. Decreased by 34,743 contracts (-12.9% Change) since last week.
   2. USD: Net Short with 43.8% of open interest. Decreased by 2,988 contracts (-3.6% Change) since last week.
   3. Open Interest: Overall open interest is Decreasing, suggesting a potential decrease in market participation.

Potential Market Implications:
The decrease in both Gold and USD non-commercial net positions suggests a weakening of speculative bullish sentiment for Gold and bearish sentiment for the USD. However, Gold still holds a strong net long position, while the USD has a more moderate short bias. This dynamic could support continued upward pressure on Gold prices, particularly if the USD weakness persists. The declining open interest for both currencies could indicate a shift towards a more cautious market approach and potentially lower volatility.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the strong bullish bias from non-commercial traders, consider long positions on XAUUSD with a target of [Price Level]. However, monitor open interest trends and the USD's performance as potential catalysts for volatility.

B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. Gold:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-53.8%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decreased from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased by 9,333 contracts (-7.9% Change)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased by 7,046 contracts (-1.9% Change)

2. USD:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Long (57.2%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decreased from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased by 2,106 contracts (-0.6% Change)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 17,305 contracts (+3.8% Change)

Net Bias for XAUUSD:

1. Overall Bias: Bearish
   1. Rationale: While both Gold and USD commercial positions saw a net decrease last week, the increase in USD short contracts suggests that hedgers are becoming less bullish on the USD. This, combined with the continued strong short position for Gold, points to a potential bearish bias in the XAUUSD.

Potential Market Implications:
The decreasing USD commercial net position, coupled with the increasing short position, suggests that hedgers are becoming more bearish on the USD, which could be a headwind for the XAUUSD in the short term. However, the continued strong short position in Gold from commercial traders indicates that they remain wary of Gold's long-term outlook.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
While a bearish bias is evident from commercial traders, the strength and direction of this bias are relatively muted. It's best to approach any short positions with caution and consider monitoring additional factors like technical indicators and economic data before entering trades.

C: TOTAL NET BIAS FOR BOTH COMMERCIAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL

Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
The non-commercial and commercial biases disagree for both currencies and the XAUUSD pair. While non-commercial traders are bullish, commercial traders are bearish. The non-commercial bias is stronger due to the more significant net position of Gold, making it a more influential factor in the overall XAUUSD bias. However, the commercial bias is also noteworthy due to the increase in USD short contracts.
Final Net Bias for XAUUSD:

1. Overall Bias: Mixed

Rationale:
While non-commercial traders are bullish on XAUUSD due to the strength of Gold's net long position, commercial traders are bearish due to their continued short position in Gold and the increasing short position in the USD. The mixed bias indicates uncertainty and potential for volatility.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the mixed bias, a cautious approach is recommended. Consider using tighter stop-loss orders and additional technical indicators or fundamental analysis to filter potential trades. Ranges and volatility are likely, making strategies such as range-bound trading or options strategies attractive for navigating this market.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

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Based on the COT data analysis for XAUUSD , here's the suggested bias for a short-term trader:
XAUUSD:

1. Non-commercial: Bullish, with a strong net long position and decreasing open interest.
2. Commercial: Bearish, with a strong net short position but with a relatively muted change in recent weeks.
3. Overall: Mixed bias, but with a potentially stronger bullish influence from non-commercial traders.

Pair: EURNZD
Live Signal": SELL @cmp
Conflunce:
1. PA (OCHL) Weekly/Monthly Chart
2. COT Data as of May 28,2024 | As per Commercial Shift
Chart TF: M30

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COT Net Bias Analysis for EURNZD - Week Ending May 28, 2024

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week ending May 28, 2024, reveals a mixed outlook for the EURNZD currency pair, with conflicting signals from non-commercial and commercial traders.

Non-Commercial Sentiment: Non-commercial traders, known for their speculative nature, are displaying a strong bullish bias towards both EUR and NZD, suggesting a potential for upward pressure on the EURNZD pair. The net long position for EUR increased by 5,974 contracts, representing a 11.4% rise since the previous week, while NZD saw an even more dramatic increase in its net long position, rising by 3,416 contracts, or 167.3%. This indicates a notable uptick in bullish sentiment for both currencies, potentially driving a stronger upward move in EURNZD. Furthermore, rising open interest for both currencies suggests increased market participation and potentially greater volatility.

Commercial Sentiment: Commercial traders, generally viewed as hedgers with a longer-term perspective, are showing a neutral bias for both EUR and NZD. While both currencies have net short positions, these positions have decreased since last week, indicating a possible shift towards a less bearish sentiment. The decrease in short positions, particularly for NZD, suggests that commercial traders are becoming less bearish on the currency. Overall, however, the commercial bias remains neutral, implying uncertainty about the direction of the pair.

Reconciliation and Final Bias: The contrasting biases between non-commercial and commercial traders create a mixed overall outlook for EURNZD. While non-commercial traders are strongly bullish, the commercial sector's neutral stance suggests potential uncertainty. Considering the recent significant increase in non-commercial long positions for NZD, particularly, the bullish sentiment among speculative traders could have a stronger influence on the pair's direction.

Final Net Bias: The overall bias for EURNZD is mixed, with a potentially stronger bullish influence from non-commercial traders.

Trading Recommendations: Given the mixed signals, a cautious approach is recommended. While the strong bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders suggests potential upside for EURNZD, the commercial sector's neutral bias and the possibility of shifting sentiment warrant careful observation of market dynamics. Utilize technical indicators, such as moving averages, MACD, and RSI, to confirm potential breakouts or reversals, and monitor fundamental economic releases for EUR and NZD to assess their impact on the currency pair.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

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Monitor your trade:
Pair: EURNZD

Results: EURNZD | For those who took the trade: Congratulations.

Symbol: USDCAD
TF: M30
Live Entry Signal: SELL @cmp


Trade Confluence.
- PA (D1, H4)
- COT Data: Overall Bias: Bearish with a potentially stronger bearish influence from commercial traders.

COT Net Bias Analysis for USDCAD - Week Ending May 28, 2024

A: Non-Commercial Individual Currencies

1. USD
   1. Net Position: Long
   2. Bias Strength: 10.4%
   3. Change in Net Position: Decreased by 590 contracts (-12.4%)
   4. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   5. Change in Long Contracts: Increased by 33 contracts (0.1%)
   6. Change in Short Contracts: Decreased by 623 contracts (-2.6%)

   
   

2. CAD
   1. Net Position: Short
   2. Bias Strength: 32.8%
   3. Change in Net Position: Decreased by 4,439 contracts (-5.1%)
   4. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   5. Change in Long Contracts: Increased by 1,900 contracts (5.1%)
   6. Change in Short Contracts: Decreased by 2,339 contracts (-1.9%)

   
   

Currency Pair:

1. Overall Net Bias: Bearish
2. Key Drivers:
   1. USD: Net long with 10.4% of open interest. Decreased by 590 contracts (-12.4% change) since last week.
   2. CAD: Net short with 32.8% of open interest. Decreased by 4,439 contracts (-5.1% change) since last week.
   3. Open Interest: Overall open interest is increasing for both currencies, suggesting a rise in market participation, particularly for CAD.

   
   

Potential Market Implications:
The overall bearish bias suggests a potential for downward pressure on the USDCAD. The decrease in non-commercial USD longs, coupled with a decrease in CAD shorts, indicates a weakening bullish sentiment in USD and a decrease in bearish sentiment in CAD. This suggests traders are reducing bullish bets on USD and are less negative on CAD. The increasing open interest for both currencies suggests continued interest in the pair, though with a slight tilt towards CAD. This could lead to increased volatility, potentially with a downside bias.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Consider short positions on USDCAD with a stop-loss placed above recent highs and a target price in line with potential support levels. However, be aware of the potential for increased volatility and monitor the market closely.

B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. USD:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-13.5%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decreased from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased by 363 contracts (-4.9% Change)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 988 contracts (8.7% Change)

   
   

2. CAD:
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Long (32.7%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 25,454 contracts (13.4% Change)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 26,958 contracts (36.3% Change)

   
   

Net Bias for USDCAD:

1. Overall Bias: Bearish
   1. Rationale: The increase in commercial long positions in CAD coupled with a decrease in commercial short positions in USD points towards a strengthening bullish outlook on CAD and a weakening bearish outlook on USD. This reinforces the bearish bias for USDCAD.

   
   

Potential Market Implications:
The commercial bias suggests a stronger long-term bearish outlook for the USDCAD. Commercial traders are increasing long positions in CAD while reducing their short positions in USD. This indicates a shift towards a stronger belief in the CAD's relative strength.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Given the strong commercial bias, consider maintaining or initiating short positions on USDCAD, with a stop-loss above recent highs and a target price based on potential support levels.

C: TOTAL NET BIAS FOR BOTH COMMERCIAL AND NON-COMMERCIAL
Non-Commercial Net Bias Consolidation:

1. Currency 1 Bias: Net Long
2. Currency 2 Bias: Net Short
3. Overall Pair Bias: Bearish

Commercial Net Bias Consolidation:

1. Currency 1 Bias: Net Short
2. Currency 2 Bias: Net Long
3. Overall Pair Bias: Bearish

Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Both the non-commercial and commercial traders are in agreement that USDCAD is headed lower. While non-commercial traders have decreased their net bias, commercial traders are increasing theirs, which suggests a stronger overall bearish sentiment for USDCAD.

Final Net Bias for USDCAD:

1. Overall Bias: Bearish with a potentially stronger bearish influence from commercial traders.

Rationale:
The overall bearish sentiment for USDCAD is strongly supported by the alignment of both non-commercial and commercial trader biases. While the non-commercial net bias is decreasing, the commercial bias is increasing, which reinforces a bearish outlook for the pair. This suggests that both short-term and long-term traders are betting on a weakening US dollar against the Canadian dollar.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):
The strong, consistent bearish bias from both commercial and non-commercial traders suggests a strong potential for further downside in the USDCAD. Consider maintaining or initiating short positions, with appropriate risk management strategies in place. Focus on potential support levels for target pricing and set stop-loss orders above recent highs to limit potential losses. Remember to monitor the market closely for any changes in sentiment or unexpected developments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

Who are more important for you between commercial & non commercial?

Hi , I enjoy your detailled COT analysis. Thank you!

EURNZD is not nornally on my radar, but your reccomendation made sense to me. Although late to the party I entered
a trade at 1.7591 asd added more at 1.7567. I am still in the trade and plan a TP at resistance at 1.7523.
I will then re-enter at a break and re-test at 1.7523 with a target of 1.7447.

Your sell results are great with a max of about 35 pips.
However my question is that you have gone to a lot of good work with COT, and most see COT as an indication of sentiment over a longer period of time. Im just curious as to whether you are done now with the trade or will you look to re-enter?
Im sure I willl get to 1.7523....im also sure the big boys will be looking for much further.
This is certinly not a critisism, 35 pips and banked is to be respected.
Just interested to know if you do look at longer term trades using COT.
Thanks

In line with my trading approach, I prefer non-commercial data over commercial data.

- Yes, I will look for re-entry opportunities.
- I consider the Commitments of Traders (COT) report data as my weekly trading bias.
- Entry/Exit is triggered by (my) intraday setups based on daily (D1) and 4-hour (H4) price action analysis.
- I do not hold positions overnight; daily, I have to identify new setups aligned with the weekly COT data bias for a given currency pair.

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Results: SL Hit
Pair: USDCAD
TF: H1 - Chart


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USDCAD: Nice setup | During New-York session

Pair: GBPCHF
TF: M30

COT Net Bias Analysis for GBPCHF - Week Ending May 28, 2024

A: Non-Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. British Pound (GBP):
   1. Net Position: Net Long
   2. Bias Strength (% of OI): 9.5%
   3. Change in Net Position: Increased by 24,349 (105.0% Change)
   4. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   5. Change in Long Contracts: 24,503 (36.1% Change)
   6. Change in Short Contracts: 154 (0.2% Change)

2. Swiss Franc (CHF):
   1. Net Position: Net Short
   2. Bias Strength (% of OI): -44.2%
   3. Change in Net Position: Decreased by -3,721 (-7.8% Change)
   4. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   5. Change in Long Contracts: 1,255 (14.0% Change)
   6. Change in Short Contracts: 4,976 (10.5% Change)

Currency Pair:

1. Overall Non-Commercial Net Bias: Bullish
2. Key Drivers:
   1. British Pound (GBP): Net long with 9.5% of open interest. Increased by 24,349 contracts (105.0%) since last week.
   2. Swiss Franc (CHF): Net short with -44.2% of open interest. Decreased by -3,721 contracts (-7.8%) since last week.
   3. Open Interest: Overall open interest is increasing, suggesting increased market participation.

Potential Market Implications:
The significant increase in net long positions for the British pound, coupled with a decrease in net short positions for the Swiss franc, suggests a strong bullish sentiment for GBPCHF. The substantial rise in open interest indicates growing market interest and participation, which could further fuel upward momentum. However, the Swiss franc's still-sizable net short position could act as a buffer against excessive bullishness.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):

1. Consider entering long positions on GBPCHF, targeting a move towards [Price Level].
2. Implement a trailing stop-loss order to protect profits and manage risk.
3. Monitor upcoming COT reports for any shifts in sentiment or positioning.

B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:

1. British Pound (GBP):
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-12.0%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Decrease from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: 6,712 (6.0%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: 38,865 (35.4%)

2. Swiss Franc (CHF):
   1. Commercial Net Position: Net Long (57.7%)
   2. Changes in Net Position: Increase from previous week
   3. Open Interest Trend: Increasing
   4. Commercial Long Contracts: 7,087 (9.2%)
   5. Commercial Short Contracts: 504 (2.2%)

Net Bias for GBPCHF:

1. Overall Commercial Net Bias: Neutral
   1. Rationale: The commercial net long position in CHF is countered by the commercial net short position in GBP, resulting in a neutral bias for GBPCHF.

Potential Market Implications:
The commercial traders' neutral stance on GBPCHF suggests a balanced market sentiment, with neither strong bullish nor bearish conviction. This could lead to range-bound price action or a consolidation phase in the near term. However, the increase in commercial short positions for GBP and long positions for CHF indicates a potential shift towards a bearish bias, which should be monitored closely.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):

1. Exercise caution and consider a neutral or range-bound trading strategy for GBPCHF.
2. Monitor future COT reports for any significant changes in commercial positioning, which could signal a shift in bias.
3. Utilize technical analysis to identify potential entry and exit points within the range.

C: Final Bias Assessment for GBPCHF

1. Non-Commercial Bias: Net Long - Bullish
2. Commercial Bias: Net Short for GBP, Net Long for CHF - Neutral

Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:

1. Agreement/Disagreement: The biases for the currency pair from both groups disagree. Non-commercial traders are net long and bullish on GBPCHF, while commercial traders are neutral due to conflicting positions in GBP (net short) and CHF (net long).
2. Bias Strength: The non-commercial bullish bias is moderate (9.5% of open interest), while the commercial neutral bias is relatively weak due to the conflicting positions.

Final Net Bias for GBPCHF:
Overall Bias: Bullish, but with a potentially stronger bearish influence from commercial traders.

Rationale for Mixed Bias:

1. Conflicting Signals: While non-commercial traders are net long, commercial traders are net short GBP and net long CHF, creating a mixed bias overall.
2. Weighing the Evidence: The moderate bullish bias from non-commercial traders is somewhat countered by the neutral bias from commercial traders. However, the significant increase in commercial short positions for GBP suggests a potential shift towards a bearish bias, which warrants close attention.

Trading Recommendations (Optional):

1. Exercise caution due to the mixed signals from commercial and non-commercial traders.
2. Consider a cautiously bullish approach, but be prepared for potential bearish pressure if commercial traders continue to increase their short positions in GBP.
3. Implement a tight risk management strategy with appropriate stop-loss orders.
4. Monitor future COT reports for any changes in bias from either group, as this could signal a clearer direction for GBPCHF.
5. Utilize technical analysis to identify potential entry and exit points, and consider incorporating fundamental analysis to assess the underlying economic factors influencing the currency pair.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.

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Update: We are in Proft 20+pips


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Nice work! ADR is 1.1371 so you should be good for another 11ish pips today.

Symbol: EURNZD
Live Entry Signal: SELL @cmp