Hedging/averaging trades without prediction | Page 173 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mathematical hedging strategy without a stop loss 22 replies

'Averaging Down Is for Losers' - valid or not? 27 replies

Fast Averaging versus Slow Averaging 1 reply

Averaging 7 replies

Martigale and Averaging Down 4 replies

Attachments: Hedging/averaging trades without prediction
Exit Attachments

Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,441
  • May 22, 2024 5:58pm May 22, 2024 5:58pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Are these your EAs or some commercial ones? Sorry, i haven’t followed the topic from the start. I mainly started to read because of the dividend strategy. Hedging, having multiple orders running all the time and even over multiple markets isn’t the style that I feel comfortable with but respect. I tried many EAs over the past 15 years and haven’t found anything consistently achieving what i am looking for. The best i had was some sort of martingale EA that was profitable 4 years but then the drawdown kicked it and it wiped out all profits....
I’d suggest reading more of the thread, more than once. I made the EAs just to prove/test random entry, no stoploss trading, they are very simple and run 24/7 with no input whatsoever. I’m doing something very similar with my live trading, only with 3-4 pairs that also pay swap overnight, although swap only makes up 10-20% of overall profit.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,442
  • May 23, 2024 12:04am May 23, 2024 12:04am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I'm still using the same method as before with the DIVI trade, small lots, big bank, hedge and average, good MM, once you have that you can trade anything ...me thinks...
yes absolutely, the lack of leverage (or large bank account versus small lot size) is an edge, maybe the biggest one.

and i think that even the banks and market makers (MM) build their business on this edge and trade similarly.
(that's why hedging is banned in the US, because you get in their way).

another edge, in my opinion, is just trading an instrument and knowing its language inside and out.

so we already have a lot of edges that have nothing to do with technical analysis or prediction;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,443
  • Edited 4:33am May 23, 2024 4:17am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Keeping under 1% DD every month would be a bit of a bind for me, I'd need a little more leeway than that for sure, more like 3%. Here's how the EAs, which I've posted, have performed to date (29 weeks), my live trading is generally a little better with a smaller DD. {image} {image}
Lazy, prop firms are not as bad as they are said to be. Sure, a lot of them which come from nowhere and try to bait you with huge discounts, those are the ones to avoid. But if you look at the reputable ones, namely ftmo and 5ers, and 2-3 other ones.

But, if you stay with the two. With your stats and your patience, you should be ok.

Most of their programs have a 5% daily DD (where you have to cut your losses before the 5%, or you're out) and an overall 10% DD. The trick how to view them is, don't look at the overall account as the account, look at the DD as the actual account size. When they present you a 100 K account the actual account size is the 10k drawdown.
  • #3,444
  • May 23, 2024 5:55am May 23, 2024 5:55am
Tide could be turning, 1% DD at the moment. Mainly because of my US30 trade, the smallest size I can trade is 1 Lot apparently. lesson learnt
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23.PNG Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 24.PNG Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 25.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #3,445
  • May 23, 2024 6:00am May 23, 2024 6:00am
Quoting LazyTrades
Ld, I have a deep/healthy distrust of my broker and the whole financial environment in general, my limited research into prop firms doesn't make me want to get involved with those charlatans at all. My trading invoves hedging, averaging and waiting as I don't want to be in front of screens any more than necessary, 1-2% over what period by the way?
Ive also found it hard to find a prop that realistically works with this style unless you trade very very small size but then I run into the issue of making the profit target in time unless you risk more but then you risk invalidating the DD requirement.
  • #3,446
  • May 23, 2024 6:58am May 23, 2024 6:58am
Just noticed that it is already Thursday and the ex-div trade with the expected 1.91 points for FTSE is already over. I am getting old... I can't see a gap on the chart? Looks like if anything my 1:1 trade would have been lost. Probably another strategy that doesn't lead to the desired result of making at least minimum wage at reasonable risk.

With only one index to trade like FTSE and expected 4 trades per month at a fixed 1:1 RR (every Wednesday) it doesn't seem to work. Especially not if the expected dividend adjustment is only a few points where you will be stopped out directly at a 1:1 stop. But even with CAC added to the list it doesn't seem to work like that.
  • #3,447
  • May 23, 2024 7:09am May 23, 2024 7:09am
Quoting Mojoloto
{quote} Lazy, prop firms are not as bad as they are said to be. Sure, a lot of them which come from nowhere and try to bait you with huge discounts, those are the ones to avoid. But if you look at the reputable ones, namely ftmo and 5ers, and 2-3 other ones. But, if you stay with the two. With your stats and your patience, you should be ok. Most of their programs have a 5% daily DD (where you have to cut your losses before the 5%, or you're out) and an overall 10% DD. The trick how to view them is, don't look at the overall account as the account,...
Excellent post. The bold print is the bit the gambling orientated or simply "dim" fail to appreciate.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,448
  • May 23, 2024 7:34am May 23, 2024 7:34am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} I’d suggest reading more of the thread, more than once. I made the EAs just to prove/test random entry, no stoploss trading, they are very simple and run 24/7 with no input whatsoever. I’m doing something very similar with my live trading, only with 3-4 pairs that also pay swap overnight, although swap only makes up 10-20% of overall profit.
Will take a look. You should consider a prop with these stats like the other user said. If you can keep the dd under -5% daily and -10% overall and still be profitable with the EAs running on a server (not even costing you time). That sounds like a win win situation for me. Yes there is a 80% profit split but say you make +2% a month on a 200k account that's still a 3200k gross profit in your pockets (before tax).

Not sure a company like FTMO (for example) would allow these kind of EAs or then refuse to pay you. There are a few more rules, such as not trading just before or after significant news, but essentially it's sticking to risk/drawdown rules (which should make sense as a serious trader anyway).

Should I test your EAs with an FTMO challenge? I was planning on doing that anyway, but so far I haven't been able to find anything that would make any sense to try again.
  • #3,449
  • May 23, 2024 7:46am May 23, 2024 7:46am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Limited internet access, back underwater, oh well, little more patience needed..
Back at BE with CAC will wait until 4:30 and get another
DIVI me thinks...
  • #3,450
  • May 23, 2024 8:01am May 23, 2024 8:01am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Will take a look. You should consider a prop with these stats like the other user said. If you can keep the dd under -5% daily and -10% overall and still be profitable with the EAs running on a server (not even costing you time). That sounds like a win win situation for me. Yes there is a 80% profit split but say you make +2% a month on a 200k account that's still a 3200k gross profit in your pockets (before tax). Not sure a company like FTMO (for example) would allow these kind of EAs or then refuse to pay you. There are a few more rules,...
By all means test away, I'd need to do my homework in much more detail on prop firms before committing to anything but thanks for the heads up.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,451
  • May 23, 2024 8:20am May 23, 2024 8:20am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Back at BE with CAC will wait until 4:30 and get another DIVI me thinks...
ah my bad not today tomorrow...
  • #3,452
  • May 23, 2024 9:22am May 23, 2024 9:22am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Back at BE with CAC will wait until 4:30 and get another DIVI me thinks...
So if I understand you correctly, you keep adding orders as long as the trade continues to go against you. You say "big bank, small lots" but i don't know what that means to you in percentage terms. In case of the CAC trade, can you let me know your max. drawdown (-%) vs. what you will win (+%) if it will close the gap?

That would be interesting to know, thanks.

In my example:

With my 5 contacts at 2 EUR/Point (one order) i was down -106 Points so far (-1.060,00 EUR) + 3 x -15,73 € (overnight funding fee)

In case of the gap close at +25 Points (+255,00 EUR). In other words Risk = 5, Profit = 1 (if so).
  • #3,453
  • May 23, 2024 11:26am May 23, 2024 11:26am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} By all means test away, I'd need to do my homework in much more detail on prop firms before committing to anything but thanks for the heads up.
EAs are running now on the same pairs and timeframe. Just can't find any parameters for determining position size/risk. On USD/JPY it has already opened a trade with 0.01 lots. I use a 10,000 euro account. Let's see, will share the results next month.
  • #3,454
  • May 23, 2024 11:35am May 23, 2024 11:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} EAs are running now on the same pairs and timeframe. Just can't find any parameters for determining position size/risk. On USD/JPY it has already opened a trade with 0.01 lots. I use a 10,000 euro account. Let's see, will share the results next month.
They all open positions at 0.01, never bothered to change that as it was more of an exercise, I did backtest and optimise the parameters for each pair though. Be interesting to see the results (I'm running the EAs on a IG demo account 24/7).
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,455
  • May 23, 2024 12:17pm May 23, 2024 12:17pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} They all open positions at 0.01, never bothered to change that as it was more of an exercise, I did backtest and optimise the parameters for each pair though. Be interesting to see the results (I'm running the EAs on a IG demo account 24/7).
I have it running on an ICM demo account. So the trades are opened without any logic in terms of time, money management or direction? I've read about some experiments like this in the past where trades were entered absolutely randomly, but I don't think they could achieve profitable results in the long term if the costs were taken into account.

If it goes well I will test it live next month or with a prop company. It says "Fxdreema". Are these EAs available to be used 1:1 by others? Then there could possibly be a problem with the props because they don't like EAs that are already used by a bunch of others and lead to identical trades.

Anyhow, it's interesting to see if such a plug and play solution can actually be profitable. Two trades opened right now GU and UJ. Both around breakeven.
  • #3,456
  • May 23, 2024 12:48pm May 23, 2024 12:48pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Back at BE with CAC will wait until 4:30 and get another DIVI me thinks...
LONG again CAC @ 8074...
  • #3,457
  • May 23, 2024 12:49pm May 23, 2024 12:49pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} LONG again CAC @ 8074...
if it drops below 8060 will star hedging...
  • #3,458
  • May 23, 2024 1:27pm May 23, 2024 1:27pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} if it drops below 8060 will star hedging...
Closed hedge 8055 +5......now wait, will hedge again @ 8050
  • #3,459
  • May 23, 2024 1:42pm May 23, 2024 1:42pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Closed hedge 8055 +5......now wait, will hedge again @ 8050
Fortunately miss the 8050 hedge but will hedge if hits it again...
  • #3,460
  • May 23, 2024 1:47pm May 23, 2024 1:47pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Fortunately miss the 8050 hedge but will hedge if hits it again...
hedge open 8050
4 traders viewing now