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- Post #13,041
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 3:20am May 22, 2024 3:20am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
- Post #13,042
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 3:33am May 22, 2024 3:33am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
PLEASE CLICK ON THE 5-Minute Chart of The Dow 30 LINK BELOW.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Is it clear now Folks? I sell incredible KNOWLEDGE which is more valuable than learning how to Trade Forex.
Look on Page 649 and listen to the short Video by World Famous Jim Rogers. He tells you what I keep trying to tell people about however because of all the so-called experts without real knowledge saying well it NEVER HAS HAPPENED. Of course, it is happening again; this time, it will be LIFE CHANGING unless you know what to do as I do.
Call me anytime at 1 819 725 7780
Bruce Margolese
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading course by sending E Transfer of 125.00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@gmail.com
"Trader", does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the Italian referendum have on forex markets?
Here is the answer to your excellent questions.
To be even more specific to your questions here is more information. Today we will probably have a RISK OFF Forex trading day. There is NO GOOD news out there and no major news scheduled to come out at 8:30 AM. The European markets are all down. The FED spoke out yesterday again about not cutting rates anytime soon.
If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you. Please sign up for my service for all of June, July, and August 2024 by sending a Bank E Transfer in Canadian funds to [email protected]
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
As we can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Over the last 22 years, I have learned about Forex trading and teaching others how to be a successful Forex trader if you have the Discipline to go along with the ability to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED, and most importantly of all to CONTROL your EGO.
The markets are always right until they are not and knowing that is the KEY to making tremendous fortunes a Forex is leveraged 100 to 1.
Here is a link to instant news worldwide that lets you know what you need to know as fundamental facts or events change things in the Forex markets in seconds.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx
PLEASE CLICK ON THE 5-Minute Chart of The Dow 30 LINK BELOW.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Is it clear now Folks? I sell incredible KNOWLEDGE which is more valuable than learning how to Trade Forex.
Look on Page 649 and listen to the short Video by World Famous Jim Rogers. He tells you what I keep trying to tell people about however because of all the so-called experts without real knowledge saying well it NEVER HAS HAPPENED. Of course, it is happening again; this time, it will be LIFE CHANGING unless you know what to do as I do.
Call me anytime at 1 819 725 7780
Bruce Margolese
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading course by sending E Transfer of 125.00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@gmail.com
"Trader", does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the Italian referendum have on forex markets?
Here is the answer to your excellent questions.
To be even more specific to your questions here is more information. Today we will probably have a RISK OFF Forex trading day. There is NO GOOD news out there and no major news scheduled to come out at 8:30 AM. The European markets are all down. The FED spoke out yesterday again about not cutting rates anytime soon.
If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you. Please sign up for my service for all of June, July, and August 2024 by sending a Bank E Transfer in Canadian funds to [email protected]
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
As we can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Over the last 22 years, I have learned about Forex trading and teaching others how to be a successful Forex trader if you have the Discipline to go along with the ability to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED, and most importantly of all to CONTROL your EGO.
The markets are always right until they are not and knowing that is the KEY to making tremendous fortunes a Forex is leveraged 100 to 1.
Here is a link to instant news worldwide that lets you know what you need to know as fundamental facts or events change things in the Forex markets in seconds.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx
- Post #13,043
- Quote
- Edited 8:08am May 22, 2024 4:07am | Edited 8:08am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
Brian D’Costa started getting calls from worried clients shortly after the Bank of Canada released its latest financial stability report a week ago.
They were concerned about a warning issued by the central bank about hedge funds and pension funds having significantly increased the amount of money they borrow through the repo market.
Repos, shorthand for repurchase agreements, are essentially short-term loans backed by high-quality collateral such as government bonds. They technically involve selling an asset with a promise to buy it back later. Financial institutions use repo markets to lend or borrow overnight or for short periods, typically less than a month.
Canadian asset managers have increased their repo market borrowing – otherwise known as leverage – by 30 percent over the past year, according to Bank of Canada data. For hedge funds, repo leverage is up 75 percent.
This has largely been to finance something called a “cash-futures basis trade,” which seeks to profit from discrepancies between the price of bonds and futures contracts at a time when interest rates are expected to move downward.
“The folks that called us are aware that we leverage. We make sure people understand how we use leverage and how it benefits the returns,” Mr. D’Costa, co-founder and president of alternative fixed-income hedge fund Algonquin Capital, said in an interview.
“They were asking if this was something they should be worried about. I told them that we are not complacent about the fact that we use leverage,” he added, noting that his firm avoided basis trading.
The Bank of Canada’s concern is not about repo borrowing or the cash-futures basis trade per se. It’s about asset managers taking on too much leverage and not being properly prepared for sudden market shifts, which could create cascading problems throughout the financial system.
“If there was a sudden repricing, a sudden change in bond prices, a big change in yields, there could be a situation where, either because of margin calls or need to unwind those trades, they could have to sell the bonds into a weak market,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a May 9 press conference about the financial stability report. “And that could amplify the market swings.”
Repo markets are not necessarily risky. They underpin much of the Canadian and global financial system, and repo borrowing is among the most common financing methods utilized by major mortgage providers and other financial institutions. Problems, however, can arise when borrowers take on too much leverage in repo markets, especially at moments when the prices of bonds – the collateral in these trades – are volatile.
“If there are certain participants in the market who are taking on too much leverage that could certainly be a financial stability concern,” said Vinayak Seshasayee, executive vice-president and head of Canadian fixed income for Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO).
“If a fund has $ 100 billion in assets and they are borrowing $ 5 billion or $ 10 billion in bonds to increase their duration, I think you could probably see that as reasonable. But if they are levering up two or three times, I think this is the Bank of Canada saying, ‘If you get into trouble and you have a problem, nobody is going to come and save you.’ ”
Much of the increase in repo borrowing, Mr. Seshasayee said, can be attributed to investors simply taking positions ahead of widely anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming months. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, meaning rate cuts from the central bank boost bond prices.
“Rather than issue a warning for the system as a whole, I think what they are trying to do is warn individual market participants and institutions: Don’t overdo it – a little bit is fine but don’t get ahead of your skis,” he said.
While there is little reason to believe that is happening now, repo markets have been at the center of market instability several times in recent decades.
The most recent example occurred in late 2022 when British government bond yields spiked and prices fell in response to a mini-budget from then-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. This caught poorly positioned British pension funds off guard and sparked a fire sale for bonds as the funds rushed to raise cash to cover margin calls. The Bank of England eventually had to step in to backstop the repo market.
“The pension funds were all over-levered using repo,” said Ed Devlin, chief executive officer of investment fund manager Devlin Capital. “Anything that can happen that disrupts the repo market can now disrupt pensions. The increase in repo at pension plans, I don’t think it’s a crisis, but it is a vulnerability, a system-wide vulnerability that should be tracked.”
Mr. Devlin said he has seen the basis trade strategy used “over and over and over again, where you lever the crap out of a bond 50 times over and then you’ve turned 10-cent pricing into a 50-per-cent return on capital” because the profit potential on individual basis trades is quite small.
The need for substantial leverage in basis trading was a key reason why Mr. Macklem said the central bank wanted to “express some concern.”
“You don’t make very much money on any one trade. There’s a small discrepancy, you make a small amount of money. So to make this worthwhile, you need to do a lot of it, and to do a lot of it, you need to borrow,” Mr. Macklem said.
The message the Bank of Canada is trying to send by mentioning repo usage and basis trading in its financial stability report is for investors to be very careful and prudent in how they size those sorts of positions, PIMCO’s Mr. Seshasayee said.
Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers emphasized that message during the May 9 press conference.
“We don’t necessarily aim to limit the type of trade, but rather to make sure that the institutions that are making these trades are adequately margining for them,” she said. “You need to anticipate what would happen if the trade, or your motivation for leverage, turns the other direction and make sure you have a buffer to protect you against that.”
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/...-repo-leverage
UPDATE at 8:00 AM
ADDED BY WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
By Layan Odeh
May 22, 2024 at 7:34 AM EDT
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board earned an 8% return in the fiscal year ended March, as double-digit gains in stocks, credit, and private equity made up for weaker performance in emerging markets and real estate.
The fund recorded a 5% loss on its real estate holdings and blamed high interest rates and work-from-home trends that have damaged the value of office properties globally.
“Most of the losses were in the office sector, given the additional impact of changes in workplace trends,” it said in its annual report. The country’s largest pension manager again reduced its exposure to property to about 8% of total assets as of March 31, down from 9% a year earlier. Five years ago, it was 12%.
Canada’s biggest pension funds have been major owners of real estate, including prime office towers, for decades, but some are now adjusting their strategies. CPPIB has recently sold its interests in a pair of Vancouver towers, a business park in Southern California, and a redevelopment project in Manhattan, with the latter offloaded for just $1 so the fund could shed its future obligations on the property.
Overall, CPPIB grew to C$632 billion ($463 billion) in assets from C$570 billion a year earlier.
“The CPP Fund’s growth this year continued the trend of reaching heights several years ahead of initial actuarial projections,” Chief Executive Officer John Graham said in a statement Wednesday. “Solid performance by all of the investment departments and key corporate functions helps demonstrate how our strategy is on track.”
Read More: Office Tower Deal for $1 Reveals Anxiety Among Longtime Buyers
The fund’s holdings of public stocks and private equity climbed 13.8% and 10.4%, respectively, while its credit portfolio gained 10.8%.
The Toronto-based pension fund has been active in dealmaking since the start of 2024. Earlier this month, it agreed to buy utility owner Allete Inc. for about $3.9 billion in partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners.
It also sold shares in the debut of cruise operator Viking Holdings and is among the investors seeking to raise around $1 billion for the initial public offering of healthcare software company Waystar Holding Corp., Bloomberg reported.
While CPPIB has mostly stuck to its China strategy, it eliminated about a dozen positions in its Greater China public equities team recently, representing close to 10% of its Hong Kong staff, according to a report by Bloomberg.
CPPIB is expected to reach C$1 trillion in assets around 2030. Executives are expanding its private lending business, with plans to nearly double the size of its credit holdings over the next five years.
Read More: CPPIB’s Credit Chief Sees Coming LBO Boom Driving Loan Growth
They were concerned about a warning issued by the central bank about hedge funds and pension funds having significantly increased the amount of money they borrow through the repo market.
Repos, shorthand for repurchase agreements, are essentially short-term loans backed by high-quality collateral such as government bonds. They technically involve selling an asset with a promise to buy it back later. Financial institutions use repo markets to lend or borrow overnight or for short periods, typically less than a month.
Canadian asset managers have increased their repo market borrowing – otherwise known as leverage – by 30 percent over the past year, according to Bank of Canada data. For hedge funds, repo leverage is up 75 percent.
This has largely been to finance something called a “cash-futures basis trade,” which seeks to profit from discrepancies between the price of bonds and futures contracts at a time when interest rates are expected to move downward.
“The folks that called us are aware that we leverage. We make sure people understand how we use leverage and how it benefits the returns,” Mr. D’Costa, co-founder and president of alternative fixed-income hedge fund Algonquin Capital, said in an interview.
“They were asking if this was something they should be worried about. I told them that we are not complacent about the fact that we use leverage,” he added, noting that his firm avoided basis trading.
The Bank of Canada’s concern is not about repo borrowing or the cash-futures basis trade per se. It’s about asset managers taking on too much leverage and not being properly prepared for sudden market shifts, which could create cascading problems throughout the financial system.
“If there was a sudden repricing, a sudden change in bond prices, a big change in yields, there could be a situation where, either because of margin calls or need to unwind those trades, they could have to sell the bonds into a weak market,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a May 9 press conference about the financial stability report. “And that could amplify the market swings.”
Repo markets are not necessarily risky. They underpin much of the Canadian and global financial system, and repo borrowing is among the most common financing methods utilized by major mortgage providers and other financial institutions. Problems, however, can arise when borrowers take on too much leverage in repo markets, especially at moments when the prices of bonds – the collateral in these trades – are volatile.
“If there are certain participants in the market who are taking on too much leverage that could certainly be a financial stability concern,” said Vinayak Seshasayee, executive vice-president and head of Canadian fixed income for Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO).
“If a fund has $ 100 billion in assets and they are borrowing $ 5 billion or $ 10 billion in bonds to increase their duration, I think you could probably see that as reasonable. But if they are levering up two or three times, I think this is the Bank of Canada saying, ‘If you get into trouble and you have a problem, nobody is going to come and save you.’ ”
Much of the increase in repo borrowing, Mr. Seshasayee said, can be attributed to investors simply taking positions ahead of widely anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming months. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, meaning rate cuts from the central bank boost bond prices.
“Rather than issue a warning for the system as a whole, I think what they are trying to do is warn individual market participants and institutions: Don’t overdo it – a little bit is fine but don’t get ahead of your skis,” he said.
While there is little reason to believe that is happening now, repo markets have been at the center of market instability several times in recent decades.
The most recent example occurred in late 2022 when British government bond yields spiked and prices fell in response to a mini-budget from then-chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. This caught poorly positioned British pension funds off guard and sparked a fire sale for bonds as the funds rushed to raise cash to cover margin calls. The Bank of England eventually had to step in to backstop the repo market.
“The pension funds were all over-levered using repo,” said Ed Devlin, chief executive officer of investment fund manager Devlin Capital. “Anything that can happen that disrupts the repo market can now disrupt pensions. The increase in repo at pension plans, I don’t think it’s a crisis, but it is a vulnerability, a system-wide vulnerability that should be tracked.”
Mr. Devlin said he has seen the basis trade strategy used “over and over and over again, where you lever the crap out of a bond 50 times over and then you’ve turned 10-cent pricing into a 50-per-cent return on capital” because the profit potential on individual basis trades is quite small.
The need for substantial leverage in basis trading was a key reason why Mr. Macklem said the central bank wanted to “express some concern.”
“You don’t make very much money on any one trade. There’s a small discrepancy, you make a small amount of money. So to make this worthwhile, you need to do a lot of it, and to do a lot of it, you need to borrow,” Mr. Macklem said.
The message the Bank of Canada is trying to send by mentioning repo usage and basis trading in its financial stability report is for investors to be very careful and prudent in how they size those sorts of positions, PIMCO’s Mr. Seshasayee said.
Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers emphasized that message during the May 9 press conference.
“We don’t necessarily aim to limit the type of trade, but rather to make sure that the institutions that are making these trades are adequately margining for them,” she said. “You need to anticipate what would happen if the trade, or your motivation for leverage, turns the other direction and make sure you have a buffer to protect you against that.”
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/...-repo-leverage
UPDATE at 8:00 AM
ADDED BY WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
By Layan Odeh
May 22, 2024 at 7:34 AM EDT
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board earned an 8% return in the fiscal year ended March, as double-digit gains in stocks, credit, and private equity made up for weaker performance in emerging markets and real estate.
The fund recorded a 5% loss on its real estate holdings and blamed high interest rates and work-from-home trends that have damaged the value of office properties globally.
“Most of the losses were in the office sector, given the additional impact of changes in workplace trends,” it said in its annual report. The country’s largest pension manager again reduced its exposure to property to about 8% of total assets as of March 31, down from 9% a year earlier. Five years ago, it was 12%.
Canada’s biggest pension funds have been major owners of real estate, including prime office towers, for decades, but some are now adjusting their strategies. CPPIB has recently sold its interests in a pair of Vancouver towers, a business park in Southern California, and a redevelopment project in Manhattan, with the latter offloaded for just $1 so the fund could shed its future obligations on the property.
Overall, CPPIB grew to C$632 billion ($463 billion) in assets from C$570 billion a year earlier.
“The CPP Fund’s growth this year continued the trend of reaching heights several years ahead of initial actuarial projections,” Chief Executive Officer John Graham said in a statement Wednesday. “Solid performance by all of the investment departments and key corporate functions helps demonstrate how our strategy is on track.”
Read More: Office Tower Deal for $1 Reveals Anxiety Among Longtime Buyers
The fund’s holdings of public stocks and private equity climbed 13.8% and 10.4%, respectively, while its credit portfolio gained 10.8%.
The Toronto-based pension fund has been active in dealmaking since the start of 2024. Earlier this month, it agreed to buy utility owner Allete Inc. for about $3.9 billion in partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners.
It also sold shares in the debut of cruise operator Viking Holdings and is among the investors seeking to raise around $1 billion for the initial public offering of healthcare software company Waystar Holding Corp., Bloomberg reported.
While CPPIB has mostly stuck to its China strategy, it eliminated about a dozen positions in its Greater China public equities team recently, representing close to 10% of its Hong Kong staff, according to a report by Bloomberg.
CPPIB is expected to reach C$1 trillion in assets around 2030. Executives are expanding its private lending business, with plans to nearly double the size of its credit holdings over the next five years.
Read More: CPPIB’s Credit Chief Sees Coming LBO Boom Driving Loan Growth
- Post #13,044
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 7:14am May 22, 2024 7:14am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
Disliked{image} Frank's Account - Asia ACCOUNT NUMBER 00464782 - $50,000 US dollars - Welcome !!!Ignored
Look at the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30 to see how it dropped and then started to go back up awaiting news. The people buying have NO CLUE what they are doing as they are trading "AGAINST THE TREND"
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Over the last 22 years, I have learned about Forex trading and teaching others how to be a successful Forex trader if you have the Discipline to go along with the ability to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED, and most importantly of all to CONTROL your EGO.
The markets are always right until they are not and knowing that is the KEY to making tremendous fortunes in Forex which is leveraged 100 to 1.
Here is a link to instant news worldwide that lets you know what you need to know as fundamental facts or events change things in the Forex markets in seconds.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx
- Post #13,045
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 8:27am May 22, 2024 8:27am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fu...-earnings-deck
Futures Drop, Yields Jump On Red-Hot UK Inflation, Nvidia Earnings On Deck
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2024 - 07:57 AM
US futures are lower on Nvidia day; with the stock down 56bps in premarket trading, while Mag7 and semis are also all lower pre-mkt. As of 7:20am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, just off session lows amid signs of sticky inflation that dampened bets on early interest-rate cuts; Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gauge slipped 0.3%, with energy shares among the big losers amid an earlier drop in crude prices. Bond yields are higher by 2-3bps in sympathy with Gilts where yields jumped on much hotter than expected inflation, or rather less than expected disinflation. The USD is higher and commodities are mixed: energy is higher, reversing earlier losses, while precious metals are lower with Ags outperforming. Aside from NVDA, the latest Fed Minutes are also released today, which should align with recent Fedspeak (hikes unlikely in 2024 and need more data to support cuts), as well as some consumer-sector earnings (Target tumbled 8% after guidance disappointed) which, in total, show a still solid aggregate consumer but continued deterioration in the lower income consumers.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=EiK7Inft
In premarket trading, Tesla slid after disclosing European sales fell to a 15-month low in April while Lululemon shares dropped 4.6% after the athleisure brand announced organizational changes, including the departure of chief product officer Sun Choe. Raymond James said Choe leaving the company added to the “wall of worry” in the near term, while Jefferies noted that the adjustments could indicate future issues with top-line growth. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Futures Drop, Yields Jump On Red-Hot UK Inflation, Nvidia Earnings On Deck
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2024 - 07:57 AM
US futures are lower on Nvidia day; with the stock down 56bps in premarket trading, while Mag7 and semis are also all lower pre-mkt. As of 7:20am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, just off session lows amid signs of sticky inflation that dampened bets on early interest-rate cuts; Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% while Europe’s Stoxx 600 gauge slipped 0.3%, with energy shares among the big losers amid an earlier drop in crude prices. Bond yields are higher by 2-3bps in sympathy with Gilts where yields jumped on much hotter than expected inflation, or rather less than expected disinflation. The USD is higher and commodities are mixed: energy is higher, reversing earlier losses, while precious metals are lower with Ags outperforming. Aside from NVDA, the latest Fed Minutes are also released today, which should align with recent Fedspeak (hikes unlikely in 2024 and need more data to support cuts), as well as some consumer-sector earnings (Target tumbled 8% after guidance disappointed) which, in total, show a still solid aggregate consumer but continued deterioration in the lower income consumers.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=EiK7Inft
In premarket trading, Tesla slid after disclosing European sales fell to a 15-month low in April while Lululemon shares dropped 4.6% after the athleisure brand announced organizational changes, including the departure of chief product officer Sun Choe. Raymond James said Choe leaving the company added to the “wall of worry” in the near term, while Jefferies noted that the adjustments could indicate future issues with top-line growth. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Bentley Systems shares fall 3.8% after Schneider Electric says talks with the software firm regarding a potential strategic transaction have been mutually terminated, according to an emailed statement. No transaction was agreed upon.
- Edwards Life shares climb 1.7% after an upgrade to buy at Citi.
- Kraft Heinz shares tick 0.9% higher after an upgrade to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which said there is better visibility on the packaged-food company’s upside in food service, aided by a new innovation in time-saving dispensers.
- Lululemon shares decline 4.6% after the athleisure brand announced organizational changes, including the departure of chief product officer Sun Choe. Raymond James said Choe leaving the company added to the “wall of worry” in the near term, while Jefferies noted that the adjustments could indicate future issues with top-line growth.
- Middleby shares slip 2.2% after a downgrade to underweight at JPMorgan.
- Modine shares decline 9.1% after the maker of heating and air conditioning products provided a fiscal 2025 earnings forecast range with a midpoint that’s short of estimates.
- Rezolute shares jump 31% after the clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company said the Phase 2 study of RZ402 for certain patients with diabetic macular edema met both primary endpoints.
- Urban Outfitters shares jump 5.5% after the clothing retailer reported 1Q net sales that beat the average analyst estimate. Barclays highlighted the performance of Anthropologie, Free People, Free People Movement and Nuuly, which more than made up for the underperformance of its Urban Outfitters banner.
All eyes now turn to AI bellwether Nvidia, which is down 0.6% in thin premarket New York trading. It’s projected to report a 243% gain in revenue, according to Wall Street estimates, but its 90% year-to-date share rally sets a high bar for further gains. Shares have hit a fresh record high this week ahead of the result, seen as the grand finale for a robust US earnings season.
“Nvidia remains the focal point,” Pepperstone Group Ltd. strategist Chris Weston said, noting that options markets are pricing a 7% to 9% swing in the stock after the result. And while Nvidia’s sales and gross margins will grab the initial spotlight, “it’s the guidance on the earnings landscape and product roll-out from CEO Jensen Huang that could dictate if the market really wants to push this one along for a more sustained period,” Weston said.
Markets are also growing jittery about the prospect of stubbornly high inflation that could prevent central banks from easing policy as early as currently anticipated. The latest UK CPI figures lifted the pound and knocked bond prices across Europe as traders pushed back their expected timing for the first Bank of England rate cut. Earlier on Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged and signaled policy will stay tight for longer, while Federal Reserve Governor Waller said on Tuesday he needs to see several more good inflation numbers to begin interest-rate cuts.
“Both the RBNZ and the UK inflation data highlight the fraught nature of the current juncture, with investors struggling to gauge both the timing and extent of long-awaited central bank easing cycles,” Rabobank’s head of rates strategy, Richard McGuire, said.
Meanwhile, two more Fed officials again reinforced a higher-for-longer message on rates. On Tuesday, Loretta Mester and Susan Collins said they need more evidence of slowing inflation before cutting. In response, traders dialed down expectatons for Fed interest rate cuts this year, currently seeing around 40 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, versus the 50 basis-point reduction priced last week. Minutes of the last Fed policy meeting, due later Wednesday, could offer further clues on rate-setters’ thinking.
European stocks dropped, with the Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.3%; travel and leisure stocks lead gains while the autos sector have the largest declines. Among individual stock movers, shares in Anglo American Plc weakened as investors waited to see if rival BHP Group Ltd. would launch its takeover bid to create a global copper behemoth. BHP has a deadline of 5 p.m. London time to announce a firm intention to make an offer for what could be among the world’s biggest takeover deals this year. Here are some of the biggest European movers Wednesday:
- Evotec climbs as much as 2.6% after first-quarter sales beat market expectations. Still, analysts flag risks to the firm’s reiterated 2024 guidance amid a broader slowdown
- Marks & Spencer jumps as much as 8.3% after reporting adjusted pretax profit that came ahead of estimates, saying it’s in the strongest financial health since 1997
- Swiss Life falls as third-party asset management net inflows came in “much weaker than expected,” and overshadow fee income growth, according to Citi
- SSE falls as much as 2.5% as the lack of EPS guidance by the UK power company disappoints alongside weaker performance in its renewables unit
- RS Group falls as much as 13% after reporting lower sales and profits in the recently-ended financial year, warning that demand remains subdued
- Ypsomed jumps 7.1% after its guidance beat expectations, according to ZKB. The Swiss supplier of auto-injectors also plans to separate its Diabetes Care operations
- Mytilineos drops as much as 6.3% after a shareholder launched an offer to sell shares in the Greek energy company at a discount to yesterday’s closing price
- Close Brothers falls as much as 7.9% after a trading update that saw downgrades to net interest margins and loan book growth
- Eutelsat drops following a downgrade to neutral at Citi, which says the satellite company’s risk profile is currently “heightened”
Earlier, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range as investors awaited new catalysts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.3% before erasing some losses. Toyota Motor and Alibaba Group dragged on the gauge, while chipmaker TSMC, a top Nvidia supplier, was among the biggest boosts. Stocks rose in Taiwan and New Zealand while benchmarks fell in Japan. Markets were closed for holidays in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The key MSCI Asia stock gauge is trading close to its highest level in more than two years after a recent rally in Chinese stocks and hopes of US rate cuts. Strong gains in Hong Kong have raised some concerns of overheating, however, while two Federal Reserve officials reinforced a higher-for-longer message on interest rates Tuesday.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index rose to sessoon highs, tracking the rise in yields. The pound rose to the strongest level in two months against the euro as traders pared UK rate-cut bets after inflation cooled at a slower-than-expected pace. “UK services inflation remains high and suggests the BOE can wait before cutting the policy rate,” said Elias Haddad, a senior strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in London. “The upward adjustment to UK interest rate expectations supports a firmer GBP particularly versus EUR.”
- EUR/GBP fell as much as 0.3% to 0.8512, crossing the April low to hit the weakest since March 11
- GBP/USD rose as much as 0.4% to 1.2761, extending a four-day rally to 0.7%; pair continued to trade at the highest since March
- EUR/CHF rose 0.3% to 0.9916, on its longest winning streak since October 2022
Treasuries were pressured lower over early London session, following wider losses seen across gilts which aggressively bear flattened with yields at highest in weeks after inflation slowed far less than expected. Following the UK April CPI, the UK 2-year year yield remains cheaper by around 12bp on the day into early US session with UK 2s10s spread flatter by 3bp and 5s30s by 4bp on the day. Subsequently, UK markets no longer fully priced two Bank of England rate cuts for this year. US yields are also cheaper by 3bp to 5bp across the curve with belly-led losses on the day flattening 5s30s spread by around 1bp; 10-year yields around 4.45%, cheaper by 4bp vs. Tuesday close with UK 10-year underperforming by around 6.5bp in the sector
US session focus also includes supply pressure with $16 billion 20-year bond sale scheduled for 1pm New York, while Fed release latest policy minutes at 2pm. Treasury auctions resume with $16b 20-year bond sale at 1pm, before $16b 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday. The WI 20-year yield at ~4.66% is roughly 16bp richer than April’s stop-out, which traded 2.5bp through the WI in a strong auction result
In commodities, crude reversed earlier losses, when prices were pressured by the surprise build in private inventories (Crude +2.5mln vs exp. -2.5mln) ahead of today's DoEs; Brent traded as low as $81.50 before rebounding over $82. Precious metals are softer with spot gold subdued amid a lack of notable geopolitical developments in recent days and ahead of FOMC minutes; XAU resides within a USD 2,410.69-2,426.62/oz range. A pullback is seen across most base metals following the recent rally, with profit-taking not to be discounted, with 3M LME copper towards the bottom end of a 10,636.50-10,857.50 intraday range.
In crypto, Bitcoin stabilized around $70K, with Ethereum holding just above $3.7k.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the close. Otherwise, data releases include the aforementioned red hot UK CPI print for April and US existing home sales for April. We’ll get the FOMC minutes from the May meeting, and hear from ECB President Lagarde, BoE Deputy Governor Breeden, and the Fed’s Goolsbee.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,340.75
- MXAP down 0.2% to 180.88
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 568.56
- Nikkei down 0.8% to 38,617.10
- Topix down 0.8% to 2,737.36
- Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 19,195.60
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,158.54
- Sensex up 0.3% to 74,199.82
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,848.14
- Kospi little changed at 2,723.46
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 521.14
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.53%
- Euro little changed at $1.0849
- Brent Futures down 1.5% to $81.66/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,413.00
- US Dollar Index little changed at 104.70
Top Overnight News
- China’s mega banks are urging branch managers to lend to state-owned companies that buy unsold homes, offering a quick show of support for the government’s housing rescue package unveiled last week. BBG
- China signaled it’s ready to unleash tariffs as high as 25% on imported cars with large engines, as trade tensions escalate with the US and European Union. BBG
- New Zealand’s central bank makes a hawkish tweak to its statement, warning that rates may need to stay at present levels for longer than previously envisioned. WSJ
- UK inflation falls by less than anticipated in April, causing markets to dial back expectations for a June BOE rate cut (headline CPI was +2.3% in Apr, a steep fall from +3.2% in Mar but ahead of the Street’s +2.1% forecast. Core came in at +3.9%, down from +4.2% in Mar but above the Street’s +3.6% forecast). RTRS
- White House says a deal to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is within reach, but its not clear if Netanyahu will agree to Riyadh’s demands (which include committing to the creation of a Palestinian state and a halt to the war in Gaza). Politico
- The US should lift its “absolutely unfair” ban on the Ukrainian army using American-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia, in order to help thwart Moscow’s new offensive, Ukraine’s top national security official has said. FT
- Biden’s approval rating falls to the lowest level in nearly two years (the rating sank to 36%, down from 38% in Apr). RTRS
- US gasoline supplies gained by more than 2 million barrels last week, API data is said to show. That would take total holdings to the highest in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Crude inventories also rose. BBG
- Fed's Mester (voter) said expect above-trend growth for the year and keeping rates restrictive is not that big of a risk right now given job market strength. Mester said she raised her estimate of the long-run neutral rate in the last projection and the current level of policy may not be "as restrictive" as it might otherwise have been, while she needs to see a few more months of inflation coming down and is also watching expectations.
- Fed's Collins (non-voter) said elevated uncertainty continues to be a feature of the economy and cannot overreact to any data point, while she added this is a period when patience really matters and uncertainty is a key factor at this point. Furthermore, she said there are a lot of reasons to think Fed policy is "moderately" restrictive with some impacts still in the pipeline and the neutral rate may be higher at least in the medium term
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly rangebound as global markets brace for the FOMC Minutes and Nvidia earnings. ASX 200 just about kept afloat as strength in the heavy industries picked up the slack from the sluggish consumer and tech sectors. Nikkei 225 underperformed following a retreat beneath the 39,000 level and amid mixed data releases as trade data disappointed but machinery orders topped forecasts and showed a surprise M/M expansion. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat varied as the former mildly resumed its advances with XPeng among the notable gainers in Hong Kong due to its Q2 delivery guidance, while the mainland was contained amid a lack of drivers and lingering trade frictions.
Top Asian News
- RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that monetary policy needs to be restricted and it raised its OCR projections with the OCR seen at 5.61% in September 2024 (prev. 5.60%), 5.54% in June 2025 (prev. 5.33%), 5.40% in September 2025 (prev. 5.15%) and at 2.99% in June 2027. RBNZ said restrictive monetary policy has reduced capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy and lowered consumer price inflation, as well as noted that annual consumer price inflation is expected to return to within the committee's 1%-3% target range by the end of 2024. RBNZ Minutes noted the committee agreed that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure annual headline CPI inflation returns to the 1%-3% target range, while the committee agreed that interest rates may have to remain at a restrictive level for longer than anticipated in the February Monetary Policy Statement to ensure the inflation target is met. Furthermore, the committee discussed the possibility of increasing the OCR at this meeting.
- RBNZ Governor Orr said during the press conference that it would take time for domestic inflation to decline, while he added the economy has a lower potential growth rate and he is unsure if that is temporary. Orr also commented that they have limited upside room for inflation surprises and the OCR track is a central projection not an absolute prediction, as well as noted that they had a real consideration on raising rates at this meeting.
European bourses, (Stoxx 600 -0.3%), are subdued across the board, but within recent ranges as the tone from APAC reverberated into Europe. European sectors are mostly lower, with the breadth of the market fairly narrow; Autos are found at the foot of the pile, after EU car registrations showed a fall in EV market share. Energy is also hampered by broader weakness in the crude complex. US equity futures (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY -0.2%) are trading tentatively in a catalyst-thin session, with focus on the FOMC Minutes and after-market earnings from Nvidia.
Top European News
- EU New car registrations: +13.7% in April 2024; battery electric 11.9% market share (vs 13% in March), according to acea. EU New Car Registrations by company in April Y/Y: Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) +15.5%. Stellantis (STLAP FP/ STLAM IM) +1.7%. Renault (RNO FP) +11.0%. BMW (BMW GY) +11.5%. Mercedes-Benz (MBG GY) +4.2%. Toyota (7203 JT) +47.3%. Nissan (7201 JT) +14.3%. Ford (F) -9.1%. Tesla (TSLA) +3.0%.
- UK ONS House Price Index (Mar) +1.8% (vs -0.2% in Feb).
- Barclays removed its expectations that the BoE will conduct the first rate cut in June.
FX
- DXY is slightly firmer but is showing mixed performance vs. peers (softer vs. NZD and GBP but firmer vs. CHF and JPY). DXY has caught a recent bid and currently trades near session highs at 104.77.
- EUR is marginally softer vs the Dollar but a session of losses vs. the GBP; In terms of price action for EUR/USD, the pair is currently respecting yesterday's 1.0842-74 range.
- GBP is firmer in the wake of an unambiguously disappointing inflation report for the BoE. Y/Y measures fell from their priors but came in hotter-than-expected, as such the first full cut is now priced in November vs September pre-release. Accordingly, Cable vaulted to a high of 1.2761, though has since pared almost the entire move amid the recent Dollar strength, although EUR/GBP holds onto losses.
- Antipodeans are mixed vs. the USD with NZD the best performer across the majors post-RBNZ rate decision. The hawkish lean of the release saw NZD/USD spike higher to 0.6152. AUD/USD is a touch softer vs. the USD in quiet newsflow and as copper prices pull back.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1077 vs exp. 7.2376 (prev. 7.1069).
Fixed Income
- USTs are softer following the broader dynamics in fixed income markets but to a lesser extent than peers. Today's FOMC minutes will be parsed for details on what lies ahead for the Fed. Trough thus far at 108.31+ low matched that of yesterday's but failed to make any headway below that level.
- Gilts are notably lagging peers in the wake of the latest UK inflation release whereby Y/Y measures fell from their priors but came in hotter-than-expected. Gilts gapped lower by over a point, printing a low at 96.83, before stabilising on a 97 handle.
- Bunds were already on the backfoot before subsequently being dragged lower by UK inflation metrics. Jun'24 Bund contract went as low as 130.30, tripping below yesterday's trough at 130.53.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 3.2x (prev. 3.21x), average yield 4.199% (prev. 4.251%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.8bps).
- Germany sells EUR 3.283bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.20% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.8x (prev. 2.5x), average yield 2.53% (prev. 2.54%) & retention 17.9% (prev. 19.03%)
Commodities
- Crude is lower in a continuation of the recent trend, with prices also pressured by the surprise build in private inventories (Crude +2.5mln vs exp. -2.5mln) ahead of today's DoEs; Brent July closer to the bottom end of a 81.57-82.63/bbl parameter.
- Precious metals are softer with spot gold subdued amid a lack of notable geopolitical developments in recent days and ahead of FOMC minutes; XAU resides within a USD 2,410.69-2,426.62/oz range.
- A pullback is seen across most base metals following the recent rally, with profit-taking not to be discounted, with 3M LME copper towards the bottom end of a 10,636.50-10,857.50 intraday parameter
- Global crude steel output -5.0% Y/Y; Chinse crude steel output -7.2% Y/Y
- Norway's April Prelim oil production 1.854mln BPD (vs 1.84mln BPD in March), gas output 10.4bcm (vs 364.5mcm/day in March), according to the Oil Directorate
- China's Coal Group said that China's May coal imports are likely to be lower than April's 42.5mln metric tons
- US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +2.5mln (exp. -2.5mln), Cushing +1.8mln, Gasoline +2.1mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. -0.4mln).
- Commerzbank said it expects Gold price to fall to USD 2300/toz in H2'24; raises forecast for Silver to USD 30/toz (prev. USD 29)
Geopolitics
- US senior official said negotiators are nearing a final set of arrangements for the US-Saudi defence deal and it is 'pretty much there to do’, while the deal includes a security component and nuclear agreement but the deal is not done and requires more work. The official said elements such as a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood still have to be completed, while the US talked with Israeli officials and reinforced President Biden's concerns about a Rafah ground invasion. Furthermore, the official said they had a very detailed discussion with Israelis about how to transition to a stabilisation phase in Gaza.
- China's Foreign Minister Wang said in talks with Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister that China will continue to strengthen strategic cooperation with Iran, safeguard common interests, and make endeavours for regional and world peace, according to Reuters.
- Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia's response will not only be political if France sends troops to Ukraine, according to RIA.
- Russian Defence Ministry proposed to change external border of Russian territorial waters in Baltic Sea, via Interfax citing draft bill
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: May MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.5%
- 10:00: April Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.8%, prior -4.3%
- 10:00: April Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.22m, prior 4.19m
- 14:00: May FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fed speakers
- 09:40: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets continued to inch higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) closing at another all-time high. But even with the new record, there were still clear signs of investor caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement later today, which is now the main focus for investors. It might seem strange that markets are hanging on the results of a single company, but over recent quarters, the release has become one of the most important events on the macro calendar. Moreover, that status has been justified by the massive moves afterwards, and Nvidia’s previous results in February saw the S&P 500 surge by +2.11% the next day, marking its strongest daily performance in over a year. So this is a pivotal event, and the recent releases have seen reactions that rival the sort of moves taking place after a surprise US jobs report or CPI release.
We won’t get Nvidia’s results until after the US close, but in the meantime, investors were focused on several Fed speakers yesterday, who sounded cautious on the prospect for near-term rate cuts. For instance, Fed Governor Waller said that “in the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy.” In addition, he said that “We’re not seeing anything right now that looks like staying here for three or four months is going to cause the economy to go off a cliff”. Later on, that message was back up by other speakers, and Vice Chair for Supervision Barr said that “We need to sit tight where we are for longer than we previously thought”. So the comments all added to the sense that any rate cuts (if they happen at all) would be later in the year.
But even as Fed speakers were in no hurry to cut rates, several other developments meant that sovereign bonds still rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. First, we had the Canadian CPI release for April, where inflation slowed to +2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations. That helped to bolster expectations that the Bank of Canada would cut rates at their next meeting, and overnight index swaps moved up the chance of a June cut to 64%, up from 43% the previous day. Secondly, there was a fresh decline in oil prices, with Brent crude down by -0.99% on the day to $82.88/bbl, and overnight it’s fallen a further -0.68% to $82.32/bbl. And third, we also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that “there is a strong likelihood” of a move in June, and that “I’m really confident that we have inflation under control”.
Overall, that meant y ields on 10yr Treasuries fell -3.2bps to 4.41%, whilst Canadian government bonds outperformed, with their 10yr yield down -5.0bps on the day. That was echoed in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-3.0bps), OATs (-2.4bps) and BTPs (-1.8bps) also moved lower. And here in the UK, 10yr gilts were down -3.9bps, which comes ahead of the UK CPI data for April, which is out shortly after we go to press this morning.
For equities however, there was a more divergent performance yesterday on either side of the Atlantic. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.25%) managed to advance for a 3rd consecutive day to a new record, surpassing its previous closing peak last Wednesday. That was supported by a +1.04% advance to a new record for the Magnificent 7, which was led by a +6.66% gain for Tesla . On the other hand, small-cap stocks struggled, with the Russell 2000 down -0.20%. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.18%) also fell back, alongside losses for the FTSE 100 (-0.09%), the CAC 40 (-0.67%) and the DAX (-0.22%).
That divergence has continued in Asian markets overnight, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.64%), alongside modest gains for the Hang Seng (+0.18%), the CSI 300 (+0.07%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) and the KOSPI (+0.18%). And looking forward, US equity futures are flat this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up just +0.02%.
Elsewhere overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. However, there were some hawkish elements to the decision, as Governor Orr said raising rates was a “real consideration” at the meeting, and their new forecasts suggest rate cuts will now happen later in 2025 than before. In turn, the New Zealand Dollar has strengthened by +0.43% against the US Dollar this morning, and yields on 10yr New Zealand government bonds are up +3.5bps, with the 2yr yield up +7.0bps.
Finally, there were several interesting commodity moves yesterday, alongside the decline in oil prices. In particular, month ahead TTF natural gas prices in Europe rose +4.13% to EUR 33.01/MWh, with futures for next winter approaching EUR 40/MWh, their highest level since the start of year. Asian LNG prices similarly reached their highest levels since December. So a potential sign of inflationary pressures ahead. The latest moves follow the news of a bankruptcy for an LNG contractor in the US, which added to fears of tighter global LNG supplies at a time of solid restocking demand for LNG in both Asia and Europe. Meanwhile on the food side, wheat prices reached their highest level since August (up by over 25% since mid-April). And finally in metals, copper (+0.62% yesterday) posted another record high, extending its YTD gain to +31.58%.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the close. Otherwise, data releases include the UK CPI print for April and US existing home sales for April. Finally, we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the May meeting, and hear from ECB President Lagarde, BoE Deputy Governor Breeden, and the Fed’s Goolsbee.
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MORE MARKETS STORIES ON ZEROHEDGE
- Post #13,046
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- May 22, 2024 9:37am May 22, 2024 9:37am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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- Post #13,047
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- May 22, 2024 9:55am May 22, 2024 9:55am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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- Post #13,048
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- May 22, 2024 10:27am May 22, 2024 10:27am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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- Post #13,049
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- May 22, 2024 10:30am May 22, 2024 10:30am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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- Post #13,050
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- Edited 12:08pm May 22, 2024 11:31am | Edited 12:08pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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Now we wait for the end of Equity trading in Europe which is at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Once that happens the odds are good the Dow 30 will drop. We are in no rush. You can go to sleep anytime as you do not need to do anything as your limit outs are entered. Keep up the good work.
To anyone else reading the posts, you can get a FREE SUBSCRIPTION for just subscribing to my thread and posting your questions here.
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- Post 13,046
- May 22, 9:37am (1 hr 54 min ago)
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,623 Posts | Online Now
At koalabear777
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- Post #13,051
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- May 22, 2024 12:04pm May 22, 2024 12:04pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
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Now we wait for the end of Equity trading in Europe which is at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Once that happens the odds are good the Dow 30 will drop. We are in no rush. You can go to sleep anytime as you do not need to do anything as your limit outs are entered. Keep up the good work.
To anyone else reading the posts, you can get a FREE SUBSCRIPTION for just subscribing to my thread and posting your questions here.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Great Work My Friend - You are the best student that I have ever had. Your first trade today was a winning Trade with locked in Profit of $153.50 US dollars.
You have as you know one open position with a LIMIT OUT of over $500.00 US dollars in profits. I predict that your account with go up by at least 25% in the next 30 days. Give me a call when you wake up. Thanks
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
I emailed you koalabear777
Now we wait for the end of Equity trading in Europe which is at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Once that happens the odds are good the Dow 30 will drop. We are in no rush. You can go to sleep anytime as you do not need to do anything as your limit outs are entered. Keep up the good work.
To anyone else reading the posts, you can get a FREE SUBSCRIPTION for just subscribing to my thread and posting your questions here.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- Post 13,046
- May 22, 9:37am (1 hr 54 min ago)
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,623 Posts | Online Now
At koalabear777
We can SHORT 50 Units of Dow 30 now and put your LIMIT OUT at PROFITS of $500.00 US Dollars.
If you are not clear you can call me or email me.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- Post #13,052
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 6:34pm May 22, 2024 6:34pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
Frank's Account - Asia ACCOUNT NUMBER 00464782 - $50,000 US dollars - Welcome !!!
Great Work My Friend - You are the best student that I have ever had. Your first trade today was a winning Trade with locked in Profit of $153.50 US dollars.
You have as you know one open position with a LIMIT OUT forover $500.00 US dollars in profits. I predict that your account with go up by at least 25% in the next 30 days. Give me a call when you wake up. Thanks
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
I emailed you koalabear777
Now we wait for the end of Equity trading in Europe which is at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Once that happens the odds are good the Dow 30 will drop. We are in no rush. You can go to sleep anytime as you do not need to do anything as your limit outs are entered. Keep up the good work.
To anyone else reading the posts, you can get a FREE SUBSCRIPTION for just subscribing to my thread and posting your questions here.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Great Work My Friend - You are the best student that I have ever had. Your first trade today was a winning Trade with locked in Profit of $153.50 US dollars.
You have as you know one open position with a LIMIT OUT forover $500.00 US dollars in profits. I predict that your account with go up by at least 25% in the next 30 days. Give me a call when you wake up. Thanks
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
I emailed you koalabear777
Now we wait for the end of Equity trading in Europe which is at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.
Once that happens the odds are good the Dow 30 will drop. We are in no rush. You can go to sleep anytime as you do not need to do anything as your limit outs are entered. Keep up the good work.
To anyone else reading the posts, you can get a FREE SUBSCRIPTION for just subscribing to my thread and posting your questions here.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- Post 13,046
- May 22, 9:37am (1 hr 54 min ago)
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,623 Posts | Online Now
At koalabear777
We can SHORT 50 Units of Dow 30 now and put your LIMIT OUT at $500.00 US Dollars PROFITS.
If you are not clear you can call me or email me.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
UPDATE AT 12:07 PM
Your Two Open Positions are now closed for a Net Profit of $283.50 US dollars.
Sweet Dreams Frankie !!!
Get Ready for your second day of Forex Trading on May 23, 2024.
You had an excellent first day. I think there will be a large drop in Dow 30 between 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time and 5:00 AM So get ready to SHORT 50 UNITS of Dow 30 anytime you see the TREND is heading down and STOPS are getting taken out as happens every day between 3:00 AM and 4:00 AM in most cases.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
- Post #13,053
- Quote
- May 22, 2024 7:03pm May 22, 2024 7:03pm
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
https://dailyreckoning.com/the-dirty...out-inflation/
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...12-650x360.jpg
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...BrianMaher.jpg
BY BRIAN MAHER
POSTED
MAY 22, 2024
The Dirty Truth About Inflation
The sitting administration — the Biden administration — sobs about inflation.
It claims it labors… heart and soul… to reduce that inflation.
Yet we believe these tears are the crocodile’s tears. That is, these tears are not authentic.
We believe the administration is not the heart and soul to reduce inflation.
The administration is rather heart and soul for inflation. Not hyperinflation, mind you — hyperinflation carries severe political risk.
But it is out for inflation. It simply does not want you to know it.
That is because a government that likes to spend money cannot be against inflation.
Can a man who munches donuts and guzzles Coca-Cola all day long be against fat?
Inflation Is Part of the Plan
Real Clear Politics:
From day one, the Biden administration has flooded the economy with borrowed money through transfer payments, subsidies, and grants designed to purchase the political support of favored constituencies such as those in the green tech sector. At the same time, Biden-controlled federal agencies have unleashed a tidal wave of crushing regulation designed to reduce the productive capacity of disfavored constituencies such as the oil and gas industry. The inflation that afflicts us is inevitable.
President Biden has asserted that fighting inflation is the “top economic priority” of his administration. Such a statement would be laughable if the subject matter were not so serious.
This president has no intention of altering the policies that define and drive the progressive agenda. There is no war on inflation or, indeed, any serious attempt to bring it under control and stabilize prices. Inflation is baked into the progressive model of government that depends on the continuing disbursement of borrowed money to political supporters.
This is not a partisan publication. And we concede the preceding administration liked to spend money too.
The 2020 plague was its central justification.
Yet the present administration has multiplied and multiplied the fiscal obscenity.
It nonetheless proceeds to moan about persisting inflation.
Again: These are the tears of the crocodilian creature.
Inflation Favors Debtors
The United States national debt runs to $34.7 trillion.
Combined United States debt — public and private — crosses $100 trillion.
Inflation lifts debt’s burden. It reduces the iron in the chains that stretch across the shoulders.
That is why a government sunk in debt is out for inflation. It is a central must.
Explains Jim Rickards:
The national debt is $34.7 trillion. A $34.7 trillion debt would not be a serious issue if we had a $50 trillion economy.
But we don’t have a $50 trillion economy. We have about a $25 trillion economy, which means our debt is 50% bigger than our economy…
The debt is unmanageable without inflation. Inflation favors debtors because they get to pay back the debt with depreciating dollars. It’s easier to pay down debt because you’re paying back debt with dollars that are less valuable than when you originally borrowed them. So inflation eases the real value of debt.
On the other hand, deflation increases the real value of debt. With deflation, the value of money increases, making it more burdensome to pay off debt. This is why debtors hate deflation.
“America — We’re Tired of Being Played for Suckers!”
The administration simply cannot concede it. With one hand it dazzles you with its tricks.
“Look how we’ve expanded the gross domestic product,” it gloats.
“Look at the invisible unemployment rate,” it bellows.
Yet with the second hand, it invades your wallet — in the expectation that you will not notice the invasion.
The United States dollar has shrunk 19% since the sitting president, Biden, swore his oath.
That is, the dollar in your wallet has shrunk 19%.
How do you like it?
Worse: The government will stare you in the eye and beam you a smile while it raids your wallet.
It will simultaneously direct your attention in another direction.
The president points toward “corporate greed.” Inflation is their fault, he tells you — not his.
Thus he howls:
“[There are] still too many corporations in America ripping people off. Price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation.”
He continues:
“America — we’re tired of being played for suckers!”
Indeed we are, Mr. President.
Yet you and the government over which you preside are doing the suckering.
The Silent Tax
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” said the famed Milton Friedman.
Corporations do not dictate monetary settings. Governments do.
Can Mr. Biden’s described villainies transpire in a world of stable money?
They cannot. The price of x may jump, it is true. Yet the price of y would not.
The ruthless agents of market competition yield generally price deflation over time.
That is not the condition that presently obtains.
We instead endure an encompassing inflation that spans the economic space.
You must recall that inflation is a supremely skillful pickpocket. It is justly and aptly named the invisible tax.
It is a cat burglar on tiptoe.
The abovesaid Milton Friedman once labeled inflation the “cruelest tax.”
We might label inflation the scoundrel’s tax. And what is the government but a gang of scoundrels?
Is this justice? The liver and lights within us say it is not justice. It is injustice.
Yet only through such swindle can the United States government swell to present dimensions.
The Biggest Government in History
Never has a national government — of any nation on Earth — exceeded its obesity.
We do not stretch or distort the facts.
Mr. Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse site:
Today, the United States has the biggest government in the history of the world, and it gets even bigger with each passing year… The federal government spent $6.13 trillion in 2023. That figure is larger than the GDP of every nation on the entire planet except for the U.S. and China.
The United States government devours some 36% of the gross domestic product.
The communist government of China — meantime — devours 33% of the gross domestic product.
What about Mr. Putin’s totalitarian hell?
Russia’s governmental proportion is precisely the United States’ governmental proportion — 36% of the gross domestic product.
The nightmare theocracy of Iran devours a mere 12% of the gross domestic product.
Again, the United States government devours some 36% of the gross domestic product.
Only an inflationary system can sustain it and the debt beneath it.
We therefore implore you to disregard the administration’s sobs about inflation.
The tears are false…
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...12-650x360.jpg
https://dweaay7e22a7h.cloudfront.net...BrianMaher.jpg
BY BRIAN MAHER
POSTED
MAY 22, 2024
The Dirty Truth About Inflation
The sitting administration — the Biden administration — sobs about inflation.
It claims it labors… heart and soul… to reduce that inflation.
Yet we believe these tears are the crocodile’s tears. That is, these tears are not authentic.
We believe the administration is not the heart and soul to reduce inflation.
The administration is rather heart and soul for inflation. Not hyperinflation, mind you — hyperinflation carries severe political risk.
But it is out for inflation. It simply does not want you to know it.
That is because a government that likes to spend money cannot be against inflation.
Can a man who munches donuts and guzzles Coca-Cola all day long be against fat?
Inflation Is Part of the Plan
Real Clear Politics:
From day one, the Biden administration has flooded the economy with borrowed money through transfer payments, subsidies, and grants designed to purchase the political support of favored constituencies such as those in the green tech sector. At the same time, Biden-controlled federal agencies have unleashed a tidal wave of crushing regulation designed to reduce the productive capacity of disfavored constituencies such as the oil and gas industry. The inflation that afflicts us is inevitable.
President Biden has asserted that fighting inflation is the “top economic priority” of his administration. Such a statement would be laughable if the subject matter were not so serious.
This president has no intention of altering the policies that define and drive the progressive agenda. There is no war on inflation or, indeed, any serious attempt to bring it under control and stabilize prices. Inflation is baked into the progressive model of government that depends on the continuing disbursement of borrowed money to political supporters.
This is not a partisan publication. And we concede the preceding administration liked to spend money too.
The 2020 plague was its central justification.
Yet the present administration has multiplied and multiplied the fiscal obscenity.
It nonetheless proceeds to moan about persisting inflation.
Again: These are the tears of the crocodilian creature.
Inflation Favors Debtors
The United States national debt runs to $34.7 trillion.
Combined United States debt — public and private — crosses $100 trillion.
Inflation lifts debt’s burden. It reduces the iron in the chains that stretch across the shoulders.
That is why a government sunk in debt is out for inflation. It is a central must.
Explains Jim Rickards:
The national debt is $34.7 trillion. A $34.7 trillion debt would not be a serious issue if we had a $50 trillion economy.
But we don’t have a $50 trillion economy. We have about a $25 trillion economy, which means our debt is 50% bigger than our economy…
The debt is unmanageable without inflation. Inflation favors debtors because they get to pay back the debt with depreciating dollars. It’s easier to pay down debt because you’re paying back debt with dollars that are less valuable than when you originally borrowed them. So inflation eases the real value of debt.
On the other hand, deflation increases the real value of debt. With deflation, the value of money increases, making it more burdensome to pay off debt. This is why debtors hate deflation.
“America — We’re Tired of Being Played for Suckers!”
The administration simply cannot concede it. With one hand it dazzles you with its tricks.
“Look how we’ve expanded the gross domestic product,” it gloats.
“Look at the invisible unemployment rate,” it bellows.
Yet with the second hand, it invades your wallet — in the expectation that you will not notice the invasion.
The United States dollar has shrunk 19% since the sitting president, Biden, swore his oath.
That is, the dollar in your wallet has shrunk 19%.
How do you like it?
Worse: The government will stare you in the eye and beam you a smile while it raids your wallet.
It will simultaneously direct your attention in another direction.
The president points toward “corporate greed.” Inflation is their fault, he tells you — not his.
Thus he howls:
“[There are] still too many corporations in America ripping people off. Price gouging, junk fees, greedflation, shrinkflation.”
He continues:
“America — we’re tired of being played for suckers!”
Indeed we are, Mr. President.
Yet you and the government over which you preside are doing the suckering.
The Silent Tax
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” said the famed Milton Friedman.
Corporations do not dictate monetary settings. Governments do.
Can Mr. Biden’s described villainies transpire in a world of stable money?
They cannot. The price of x may jump, it is true. Yet the price of y would not.
The ruthless agents of market competition yield generally price deflation over time.
That is not the condition that presently obtains.
We instead endure an encompassing inflation that spans the economic space.
You must recall that inflation is a supremely skillful pickpocket. It is justly and aptly named the invisible tax.
It is a cat burglar on tiptoe.
The abovesaid Milton Friedman once labeled inflation the “cruelest tax.”
We might label inflation the scoundrel’s tax. And what is the government but a gang of scoundrels?
Is this justice? The liver and lights within us say it is not justice. It is injustice.
Yet only through such swindle can the United States government swell to present dimensions.
The Biggest Government in History
Never has a national government — of any nation on Earth — exceeded its obesity.
We do not stretch or distort the facts.
Mr. Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse site:
Today, the United States has the biggest government in the history of the world, and it gets even bigger with each passing year… The federal government spent $6.13 trillion in 2023. That figure is larger than the GDP of every nation on the entire planet except for the U.S. and China.
The United States government devours some 36% of the gross domestic product.
The communist government of China — meantime — devours 33% of the gross domestic product.
What about Mr. Putin’s totalitarian hell?
Russia’s governmental proportion is precisely the United States’ governmental proportion — 36% of the gross domestic product.
The nightmare theocracy of Iran devours a mere 12% of the gross domestic product.
Again, the United States government devours some 36% of the gross domestic product.
Only an inflationary system can sustain it and the debt beneath it.
We therefore implore you to disregard the administration’s sobs about inflation.
The tears are false…
- Post #13,054
- Quote
- Edited 3:30am May 23, 2024 3:12am | Edited 3:30am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wh...nd-mf-monitors
This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman's HF and MF Monitors
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2024 - 11:20 PM
Today Goldman published two of the bank's most widely read periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (available to pro subs here) and Mutual Fundamentals (also available here), which summarize the quarterly activity and flows of hedge and mutual funds, respectively. Both are available to pro subs in the usual place, but here are the key points from each report.
Hedge Fund trend monitor
1) PERFORMANCE: US equity long/short hedge funds have generated a solid +8% YTD return. The strong performance of popular hedge fund long positions has boosted hedge fund returns despite a recent short squeeze in popular shorted stocks. Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP) has returned +16% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+12%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+7%). The most shorted stocks (GSCBMSAL, +7% YTD) surged +25% in mid-May.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SkECkIgS
2) LEVERAGE AND SHORT INTEREST: Hedge funds have modestly lifted net leverage alongside the broader market rally while maintaining record gross leverage. Concentrated short positions have been particularly volatile recently, causing funds to rotate out of their favorite longs to cover shorts. However, the most recent short squeeze fell shy of the recent experiences in 2021 and December 2023. Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains very low at 1.8% of float. Instead, funds continue to use macro products.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=mlvjgCHl
3) HEDGE FUND VIPS: Mega-caps remain the most popular hedge fund long positions. AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and NVDA continue to rank as the top five stocks in the VIP list this quarter, with AAPL joining the top six. The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamental hedge funds. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 60% of quarters since 2001 with an average quarterly excess return of 47 bp. 14 new constituents: ALIT, APP, DELL, DFS, GDDY, JPM, MU, NEE, SE, SN, VST, WDC, WIX, X.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=AyIqDUju
4) MEGA-CAPS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Hedge funds trimmed positions in the mega-caps while adding to broader AI beneficiaries. Share price outperformance has supported the weight of the Magnificent 7 in hedge fund long portfolios, which stabilized at 13% during 1Q. AAPL was the exception where hedge funds were incrementally added. In contrast, hedge funds added to winners across the entire AI universe, particularly in Phase 2 Infrastructure. MRVL, SNX, AES, and LFUS are Infrastructure stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=zvqpD4qP
5) SECTORS: Hedge funds continued to rotate toward cyclicals, with broad-based increases across Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Energy. DFS joined this quarter's VIP list, as did JPM, and also joined BK and SPGI to screen among this quarter's list of Rising Stars with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity. Soaring prices also lifted the weight of Semiconductor stocks in hedge fund long portfolios to a new record, at 6.5%. MRVL is the top Rising Star and MU entered our basket of favorite hedge fund long positions.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=h81SJAhD
Mutual Fundamentals
1. PERFORMANCE: Mutual funds have delivered strong results YTD. 45% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared with the historical average of 38%.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=6iYPNp5_
Fund managers have grown increasingly bullish on US equities, with cash allocations falling to 1.5% and matching the lowest level on record.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=8FHVr87M
Nonetheless, active mutual funds have experienced $139 billion of outflows YTD.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=lfI8UYIA
2. THEMES IN FOCUS: (1) MEGA-CAP TECH: Increasing benchmark weights and diversification restrictions mean that the average large-cap mutual fund was 660 bp underweight the Magnificent 7 in 1Q 2024, largely unchanged vs. last quarter. A net of 120 funds (25%) reduced their exposure to MSFT, the largest decline across the group.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=0p2zkE3-
(2) AI: Despite the broadening of the AI trade across share prices, mutual fund managers generally avoided taking large tracking errors on the theme. However, mutual funds lifted their exposure to Utilities to a new 10-year high.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=mGV8vA9v
(3) CYCLICALS/DEFENSIVES: The average large-cap mutual fund maintained a 437 bp overweight in cyclical industries vs. the benchmark, which has benefited performance as investor confidence about economic growth drove Cyclicals to outperform Defensives (GSPUCYDE) by 4% YTD.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ngj2uBRp
3. SECTORS: The average large-cap mutual fund is currently the most overweight Financials (+167 bp) and Industrials (+139 bp) and most underweight Info Tech (-341 bp).
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=vQacCyuD
Relative to 4Q 2023, the average fund increased exposure most to Consumer Discretionary (+53 bp) and cut the most to Health Care (-42 bp) and Financials (-34 bp).
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=1VzZc_Gy
4. STOCKS: Goldman has rebalanced its Mutual Fund Overweight (GSTHMFOW) and Mutual Fund Underweight (GSTHMFUW) baskets in this report. 12 new constituents in GSTHMFOW: JCI, GM, TRV, CAH, KDP, DASH, TTD, NET, LHX, PNC, GD, AMP.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=thOi5cGJ
6 new constituents in GSTHMFUW: GE, HON, AMGN, UNP, DLR, TMO.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SaEJwQ04
Much more in the full reports available to pro subs (here and here)
This Is What Hedge And Mutual Funds Did In Q1: Goldman's HF and MF Monitors
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, MAY 22, 2024 - 11:20 PM
Today Goldman published two of the bank's most widely read periodic reports: the Hedge Fund Trend Monitor (available to pro subs here) and Mutual Fundamentals (also available here), which summarize the quarterly activity and flows of hedge and mutual funds, respectively. Both are available to pro subs in the usual place, but here are the key points from each report.
Hedge Fund trend monitor
1) PERFORMANCE: US equity long/short hedge funds have generated a solid +8% YTD return. The strong performance of popular hedge fund long positions has boosted hedge fund returns despite a recent short squeeze in popular shorted stocks. Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions (ticker: GSTHHVIP) has returned +16% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+12%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+7%). The most shorted stocks (GSCBMSAL, +7% YTD) surged +25% in mid-May.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SkECkIgS
2) LEVERAGE AND SHORT INTEREST: Hedge funds have modestly lifted net leverage alongside the broader market rally while maintaining record gross leverage. Concentrated short positions have been particularly volatile recently, causing funds to rotate out of their favorite longs to cover shorts. However, the most recent short squeeze fell shy of the recent experiences in 2021 and December 2023. Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock remains very low at 1.8% of float. Instead, funds continue to use macro products.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=mlvjgCHl
3) HEDGE FUND VIPS: Mega-caps remain the most popular hedge fund long positions. AMZN, MSFT, META, GOOGL, and NVDA continue to rank as the top five stocks in the VIP list this quarter, with AAPL joining the top six. The VIP list contains the 50 stocks that appear most often among the top 10 holdings of fundamental hedge funds. The basket has outperformed the S&P 500 in 60% of quarters since 2001 with an average quarterly excess return of 47 bp. 14 new constituents: ALIT, APP, DELL, DFS, GDDY, JPM, MU, NEE, SE, SN, VST, WDC, WIX, X.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=AyIqDUju
4) MEGA-CAPS AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Hedge funds trimmed positions in the mega-caps while adding to broader AI beneficiaries. Share price outperformance has supported the weight of the Magnificent 7 in hedge fund long portfolios, which stabilized at 13% during 1Q. AAPL was the exception where hedge funds were incrementally added. In contrast, hedge funds added to winners across the entire AI universe, particularly in Phase 2 Infrastructure. MRVL, SNX, AES, and LFUS are Infrastructure stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=zvqpD4qP
5) SECTORS: Hedge funds continued to rotate toward cyclicals, with broad-based increases across Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Energy. DFS joined this quarter's VIP list, as did JPM, and also joined BK and SPGI to screen among this quarter's list of Rising Stars with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity. Soaring prices also lifted the weight of Semiconductor stocks in hedge fund long portfolios to a new record, at 6.5%. MRVL is the top Rising Star and MU entered our basket of favorite hedge fund long positions.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=h81SJAhD
Mutual Fundamentals
1. PERFORMANCE: Mutual funds have delivered strong results YTD. 45% of large-cap mutual funds are outperforming their benchmarks YTD, compared with the historical average of 38%.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=6iYPNp5_
Fund managers have grown increasingly bullish on US equities, with cash allocations falling to 1.5% and matching the lowest level on record.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=8FHVr87M
Nonetheless, active mutual funds have experienced $139 billion of outflows YTD.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=lfI8UYIA
2. THEMES IN FOCUS: (1) MEGA-CAP TECH: Increasing benchmark weights and diversification restrictions mean that the average large-cap mutual fund was 660 bp underweight the Magnificent 7 in 1Q 2024, largely unchanged vs. last quarter. A net of 120 funds (25%) reduced their exposure to MSFT, the largest decline across the group.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=0p2zkE3-
(2) AI: Despite the broadening of the AI trade across share prices, mutual fund managers generally avoided taking large tracking errors on the theme. However, mutual funds lifted their exposure to Utilities to a new 10-year high.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=mGV8vA9v
(3) CYCLICALS/DEFENSIVES: The average large-cap mutual fund maintained a 437 bp overweight in cyclical industries vs. the benchmark, which has benefited performance as investor confidence about economic growth drove Cyclicals to outperform Defensives (GSPUCYDE) by 4% YTD.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ngj2uBRp
3. SECTORS: The average large-cap mutual fund is currently the most overweight Financials (+167 bp) and Industrials (+139 bp) and most underweight Info Tech (-341 bp).
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=vQacCyuD
Relative to 4Q 2023, the average fund increased exposure most to Consumer Discretionary (+53 bp) and cut the most to Health Care (-42 bp) and Financials (-34 bp).
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=1VzZc_Gy
4. STOCKS: Goldman has rebalanced its Mutual Fund Overweight (GSTHMFOW) and Mutual Fund Underweight (GSTHMFUW) baskets in this report. 12 new constituents in GSTHMFOW: JCI, GM, TRV, CAH, KDP, DASH, TTD, NET, LHX, PNC, GD, AMP.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=thOi5cGJ
6 new constituents in GSTHMFUW: GE, HON, AMGN, UNP, DLR, TMO.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=SaEJwQ04
Much more in the full reports available to pro subs (here and here)
- Post #13,055
- Quote
- May 23, 2024 3:15am May 23, 2024 3:15am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
At koalabear777
We can SHORT 50 Units of Dow 30 now and put your LIMIT OUT at PROFITS of $500.00 US Dollars.
If you are not clear you can call me or email me.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
- Post #13,056
- Quote
- May 23, 2024 4:18am May 23, 2024 4:18am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
At koalabear777
We can SHORT 50 Units of Dow 30 now and put your LIMIT OUT at PROFITS of $500.00 US Dollars.
If you are not clear you can call me or email me.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
NOTE at 4:19 Eastern Standard Time - We had a LIMIT OUT of $500.00 however you can NEVER lose by taking a profit especially since we soon will be at 5:00 AM Eastern Standard Time and the stock markets usually head up as people buy without any logical reason in a clear downtrend and before Financial Data is released at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM
We locked in our profits so we are ahead and all in cash. Our new locked in profits is $166.10 US dollars. BWM
We can SHORT 50 Units of Dow 30 now and put your LIMIT OUT at PROFITS of $500.00 US Dollars.
If you are not clear you can call me or email me.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
NOTE at 4:19 Eastern Standard Time - We had a LIMIT OUT of $500.00 however you can NEVER lose by taking a profit especially since we soon will be at 5:00 AM Eastern Standard Time and the stock markets usually head up as people buy without any logical reason in a clear downtrend and before Financial Data is released at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM
We locked in our profits so we are ahead and all in cash. Our new locked in profits is $166.10 US dollars. BWM
- Post #13,057
- Quote
- May 23, 2024 4:28am May 23, 2024 4:28am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
- Post 13,044
- Cleanup
- Quote
- May 22, 7:14am (21 hr ago)
- https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,629 Posts | Online Now
Quoting BenjaminIs
{image} Frank's Account - Asia ACCOUNT NUMBER 00464782 - $50,000 US dollars - Welcome !!!
Glad you have your FXCM UK trading platform set up via Friedberg Direct Forex working now. It looks like things will move around Nvidia's results. It looks like we have RISK OFF today however we must wait until 8:30 AM before we consider any Forex trades. You will SHORT 50 units of Dow 30 and enter a LIMIT OUT of $500.00 US dollars. You can post your questions here or call me if you need to.
Look at the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30 to see how it dropped and then started to go back up awaiting news. The people buying have NO CLUE what they are doing as they are trading "AGAINST THE TREND"
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
There are SET PATTERNS in the Forex Markets every Sunday from 3:00 PM to Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time.
Knowing this WE can see the PREDICTABLE RESULTS just as if WE WOULD know the RESULTS of a Horse Race anywhere in the world each Forex trading day.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Over the last 22 years, I have learned about Forex trading and teaching others how to be a successful Forex trader if you have the Discipline to go along with the ability to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED, and most importantly of all to CONTROL your EGO.
The markets are always right until they are not and knowing that is the KEY to making tremendous fortunes in Forex which is leveraged 100 to 1.
Here is a link to instant news worldwide that lets you know what you need to know as fundamental facts or events change things in the Forex markets in seconds.
https://finviz.com/news.ashx
- Post #13,058
- Quote
- May 23, 2024 4:31am May 23, 2024 4:31am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
- Post 13,026
- Cleanup
- Quote
- May 20, 2024 7:46am | Edited 10:06am
- https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,630 Posts | Online Now
Good day, Forex traders. I hope that you post on my thread so you can get FREE 90-day access to me and additional information not posted here.
At koalabear777
Please accept my offer as I see you have subscribed to my thread.
Stay tuned, as will be doing many posts here today.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Call me anytime at 1 819 725 7870
Bruce Margolese
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading course by sending E Transfer of 125.00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@gmail.com
"Trader", does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.
No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS.
Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data released each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the Italian referendum have on forex markets?
Here is the answer to your excellent questions.
To be even more specific to your questions here is more information. Today we will probably have a RISK OFF Forex trading day. There is NO GOOD news out there and no major news scheduled to come out at 8:30 AM. The European markets are all down. The FED spoke out yesterday again about not cutting rates anytime soon.
If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you. Please sign up for my service for all of June, July, and August 2024 by sending a Bank E Transfer in Canadian funds to [email protected]
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
UPDATE AT 10:03 AM - As we can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
- Post #13,059
- Quote
- May 23, 2024 4:32am May 23, 2024 4:32am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
- Post 13,026
- Cleanup
- Quote
- May 20, 2024 7:46am | Edited 10:06am
- https://assets.faireconomy.media/nfs...ar392875_2.gif BenjaminIs
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,630 Posts | Online Now
Good day, Forex traders. I hope that you post on my thread so you can get FREE 90-day access to me and additional information not posted here.
At koalabear777
Please accept my offer as I see you have subscribed to my thread.
Stay tuned, as will be doing many posts here today.
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
Call me anytime at 1 819 725 7870
Bruce Margolese
WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM
https://finviz.com/news.ashx?v=2
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
Please sign up for our 90-day Forex Trading course by sending E Transfer of 125.00 Canadian dollars to Tobyruth11@gmail.com
"Trader", does not mean that the sole objective is to make money. The moment you come with money-making as the sole and only objective, you are out of the game anyway and part of the larger crowd which is unsuccessful
Do things that can identify you as a professional trader - learn the process, understand and follow risk management and position sizing. Be disciplined and understand that trading is a long haul.
Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.
No indicator can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 500 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.
That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed in 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.
It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS.
Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world-changing events.
Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars, INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade on March 9, 2006, 18 years ago.
PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW
Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.
Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.
There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.
SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.
20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.
20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.
20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.
20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.
20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data released each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.
When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.
Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the Italian referendum have on forex markets?
Here is the answer to your excellent questions.
To be even more specific to your questions here is more information. Today we will probably have a RISK OFF Forex trading day. There is NO GOOD news out there and no major news scheduled to come out at 8:30 AM. The European markets are all down. The FED spoke out yesterday again about not cutting rates anytime soon.
If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Thank you. Please sign up for my service for all of June, July, and August 2024 by sending a Bank E Transfer in Canadian funds to [email protected]
We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.
We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year.
Here is the link.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM
- Post #13,060
- Quote
- May 25, 2024 9:06am May 25, 2024 9:06am
- | Commercial Member | Joined Dec 2014 | 11,786 Posts
Offer for new subscribers...
There are four important components regarding my strategies for futures positions.
1. Positions are established only in the upper or lower 25% of the long-term trading range.
2. Positions are established only when my long-term formula is up or down within that 25% parameter.
3. Positions are held until positions reach the opposite extreme high or low. (the upper or lower 25% of the long-term trading range) or until my long-term formula changes direction.
4. Correct money management strategies must be implemented.
Those looking for a "get rich quick" strategy should look elsewhere for a commodity investment broker.
There is no question that more than 95% of commodity investors lose money...
My strategies also incur drawdowns however what I offer is a way to be "in the market" when major commodity moves occur.
My strategies require one to maintain:
* Patience
* Commitment
* Vision
* Discipline
Those of you who have an interest in additional details should call me personally.
Bruce Warren Margolese
Office number: 1 819 275 7780
There are four important components regarding my strategies for futures positions.
1. Positions are established only in the upper or lower 25% of the long-term trading range.
2. Positions are established only when my long-term formula is up or down within that 25% parameter.
3. Positions are held until positions reach the opposite extreme high or low. (the upper or lower 25% of the long-term trading range) or until my long-term formula changes direction.
4. Correct money management strategies must be implemented.
Those looking for a "get rich quick" strategy should look elsewhere for a commodity investment broker.
There is no question that more than 95% of commodity investors lose money...
My strategies also incur drawdowns however what I offer is a way to be "in the market" when major commodity moves occur.
My strategies require one to maintain:
* Patience
* Commitment
* Vision
* Discipline
Those of you who have an interest in additional details should call me personally.
Bruce Warren Margolese
Office number: 1 819 275 7780