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My Biggest Problem

  • #121
  • May 21, 2024 12:47pm May 21, 2024 12:47pm
Don't get me started on Algo's

The fact is 99% of Algo traders spend on average 500 hours to design, back-test, forward test and then maintain just one single Algorithm that makes them almost zero money over a 12 month period. They then have to spend at least an hour an day ensuring its running correctly and the computer system is still connected to the servers. So over a year - that's about 800 hours work for a single Algorithm that makes small profits.

I used to run a portfolio of 7 Algorithm's so that's about 5600 hours a work in a year.

In the end, I worked about 18 hour days running & developing more Algorithms and it

ALMOST BLOODY WELL ALMOST DESTROYED MY MARRIAGE AND LIFESTYLE
IF I FLIPPED BURGERS AT A TAKE AWAY BAR - I WOULD OF BEEN HAPPER AND RICHER

That is my experience and its similar to 7 of my trading buddies who WERE Algorithm traders.

Its best to learn how to have patience and Wait for some good Manual setups and push the trade button manually.
Greed & Fear are real - they hold back 99% of traders because traders hold when they should exit and exit when they should hold.


My trading journey proved to be one thing. Learn how to hold onto winning trades Manually and let that bastard run is the best road to profitability.


Now I can make more money in 2 Weeks Scalping Future's than I ever made with Stupid Dump Algorithm's in a year.
OR I can just take a long term trade on the Stock Market and forget about it for years.

I have one Stock Market trade running and it's been running for 3 years - and I'm in profit as I speak $308,850 and I'll let that bastard run longer.
NO ALGO REQUIRED
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #122
  • Edited May 22, 2024 7:43pm May 21, 2024 7:52pm | Edited May 22, 2024 7:43pm
Quoting RickM
My trading journey proved to be one thing. Learn how to hold onto winning trades Manually and let that bastard run is the best road to profitability.
Here's the hard truth that wannabe traders refuse to accept that lead to their continued failure.

Learn to be an expert position trader holding overnight trades lasting more than 2 days before you try intraday trading. If you don't have this knowledge and skill to position trade, you're sure to fail as an intraday swing trader. You're forced to scalp both directions discretionally, ie. guessing.

Many wannabes end up scalping both directions discretionally because they refuse to pay time to gather the knowledge how to trade the trend. After more than a decade of screen staring experience they fail to gather the required knowledge and skill. Wasted years, wasted life.

Quoting RickM
Greed & Fear are real - they hold back 99% of traders because traders hold when they should exit and exit when they should hold.
I asked these 2 question earlier on Andy's thread about the typical pump followed by dump we see on our chart,

1. How do you know how far the pump? Implies distance.
2. How do you know there's a dump after the pump? Implies market intent.

If traders don't know the answer to both questions, that trader is trading blind. To the blind, greed and fear are real. They need the shrink.

***It hurts to know you're mostly blind. It hurts more when you do nothing about it.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #123
  • May 21, 2024 8:20pm May 21, 2024 8:20pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} People say there are things called computers. Also people say there are programmers somewhere and they do algos. Does algo has greed or fear? In my opinion all these talks about psychology is just a way to explain and justify laziness and lack of knowledge.
Hi ryuryu, that's how we identify those traders who lack knowledge.

I trade manually. My coding skill is not good enough. I admit I am lazy to upgrade my skill, contented to pay the price of waiting. I leave this learning to the next life.

And no to hire coders.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #124
  • Edited 10:21pm May 21, 2024 10:11pm | Edited 10:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Here's the hard truth that wannabe traders refuse to accept that lead to their continued failure. Learn to be an expert position trader holding overnight trades lasting more than 2 days before you try intraday trading. If you don't have this knowledge and skill to position trade, you're sure to fail as an intraday swing trader. You're forced to scalp both directions discretionally, ie. guessing. Many wannabes end up scalping both directions discretionally because they refuse to pay time to gather the knowledge how to trade the trend. After...

1. How do you know how far the pump? Implies distance.
2. How do you know there's a dump after the pump? Implies market intent

I assume you know the answers.
Would you pls answer these questions?
  • #125
  • May 22, 2024 2:53am May 22, 2024 2:53am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi ryuryu, that's how we identify those traders who lack knowledge. I trade manually. My coding skill is not good enough. I admit I am lazy to upgrade my skill, contented to pay the price of waiting. I leave this learning to the next life. And no to hire coders. Cheers
Hiring coders is lazyness too. Because you dont know what to do but the reason of future mistakes already ready. You can always say that the problem was because of the code, coder, algo and so on.

I was talking not about trading style is it manuall or automatic. I was talking that all the talks about psychology, mood, luck and order no-existant things is magical thinking stuff made to create comfortable "thats's why" answer on the question "why lose again". Because there is a big difference admit he is lazy stupid degen gambler or "Have pity on me, the unfortunate one, it's not my fault, but such circumstances have developed that I could not influence".
Observer effect
  • #126
  • May 22, 2024 3:44am May 22, 2024 3:44am
Quoting RickM
Don't get me started on Algo's The fact is 99% of Algo traders spend on average 500 hours to design, back-test, forward test and then maintain just one single Algorithm that makes them almost zero money over a 12 month period. They then have to spend at least an hour an day ensuring its running correctly and the computer system is still connected to the servers. So over a year - that's about 800 hours work for a single Algorithm that makes small profits. I used to run a portfolio of 7...
  • #127
  • Edited 5:13am May 22, 2024 4:04am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hiring coders is lazyness too. Because you dont know what to do but the reason of future mistakes already ready. You can always say that the problem was because of the code, coder, algo and so on. I was talking not about trading style is it manuall or automatic. I was talking that all the talks about psychology, mood, luck and order no-existant things is magical thinking stuff made to create comfortable "thats's why" answer on the question "why lose again". Because there is a big difference admit he is lazy stupid degen gambler or "Have...
Hi ryuryu, psychology is the losers excuse created by psychologists to sell their books and seminars to comfort degen gamblers, a huge ready market - conquer your psychology, the path to a winner.

There are people who claim they conquered the psychology pressures of trading that's why they are winners while others remain losers. We read a lot about the "you" that makes the difference even when they trade the same method. Those who wrote such posts were referring this "you" to themselves - the winner.

It's a forum, don't take things too seriously.

Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #128
  • May 22, 2024 5:46am May 22, 2024 5:46am
@ keyman

I see you are only 19 years old....
Nothing comes easy in life.
Put in the time. There is no substitute for "chart watching"


The winning line never comes closer by listening to others, buying courses, seeking for the holy grail and hanging out with other traders....

Studying price action by putting in the hours is the ONLY way.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #129
  • May 22, 2024 5:46am May 22, 2024 5:46am
Quoting RickM
Don't get me started on Algo's The fact is 99% of Algo traders spend on average 500 hours to design, back-test, forward test and then maintain just one single Algorithm that makes them almost zero money over a 12 month period. They then have to spend at least an hour an day ensuring its running correctly and the computer system is still connected to the servers. So over a year - that's about 800 hours work for a single Algorithm that makes small profits. I used to run a portfolio of 7...
100% agree
  • #130
  • Edited 7:14pm May 22, 2024 6:47pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting RickM
The fact is 99% of Algo traders spend on average 500 hours to design, back-test, forward test and then maintain just one single Algorithm that makes them almost zero money over a 12 month period. They then have to spend at least an hour an day ensuring its running correctly and the computer system is still connected to the servers. So over a year - that's about 800 hours work for a single Algorithm that makes small profits. I used to run a portfolio of 7 Algorithm's so that's about 5600 hours a work in a year. In the end, I worked about 18 hour...
Hi RickM, as much as I agree with your conclusion and had a similar experience(3 years building binary bots). You must also realise that the future of forex trading is moving rapidly towards algo trading. The traditional directional prop trader is fast vanishing in the industry.

Quoting RickM
I worked about 18 hour days(for at least 5years and more)
The secret formula to a successful forex trader.

Cheers

Ps RickM, be back next year.
Know what you trade
  • #131
  • May 23, 2024 4:44pm May 23, 2024 4:44pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi RickM, as much as I agree with your conclusion and had a similar experience(3 years building binary bots). You must also realise that the future of forex trading is moving rapidly towards algo trading. The traditional directional prop trader is fast vanishing in the industry. {quote} The secret formula to a successful forex trader. Cheers Ps RickM, be back next year.
Hi BW

Well there will be plenty more big ego’s to argue with next year so see you then.

Normal Algo’s will still have no chance in the modern market because HFT’s are coded to attack stacked liquidity. That means if there is more selling orders on the books, they Buy. So 75% of all positions will always get taken out.
You can’t code for that HOWEVER AI bots that can change their coding halfway through a position may have better success rates.

Is anyone making “thinking bots that can reprogram their strategy mid position” presently?

And I can not talking about stupid Algorithms that have multiple external functions because that has proven to fail historically. I can traded with 2 Algorithms that have won international Algo trading competitions and neither has more than 2 external functions (meaning they only use signals to buy or sell of two parameters)

And they still were not overly profitable year after year, rather they won on years that suited their coding.


Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #132
  • May 24, 2024 7:25am May 24, 2024 7:25am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BW Well there will be plenty more big ego’s to argue with next year so see you then. Normal Algo’s will still have no chance in the modern market because HFT’s are coded to attack stacked liquidity. That means if there is more selling orders on the books, they Buy. So 75% of all positions will always get taken out. You can’t code for that HOWEVER AI bots that can change their coding halfway through a position may have better success rates. Is anyone making “thinking bots that can reprogram their strategy mid position” presently? And I...
So forever trading liquidity sweeps will work?
  • #133
  • May 25, 2024 4:12am May 25, 2024 4:12am
Quoting RickM
Don't get me started on Algo's The fact is 99% of Algo traders spend on average 500 hours to design, back-test, forward test and then maintain just one single Algorithm that makes them almost zero money over a 12 month period. They then have to spend at least an hour an day ensuring its running correctly and the computer system is still connected to the servers. So over a year - that's about 800 hours work for a single Algorithm that makes small profits. I used to run a portfolio of 7...
Your experience really highlights how intensive and taxing algorithmic trading can be, not just on your time but on personal life as well. It sounds like shifting to manual trading and focusing on long-term stock market investments has been much more rewarding for you, both financially and in terms of lifestyle. It’s a powerful reminder that while technology can assist, it isn’t always the best fit for everyone’s strategy or life situation. How have you found the transition back to more traditional trading methods?
IgorFX
  • #134
  • Edited 7:29am May 25, 2024 4:15am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting Cobra
@ keyman I see you are only 19 years old.... Nothing comes easy in life. Put in the time. There is no substitute for "chart watching" The winning line never comes closer by listening to others, buying courses, seeking for the holy grail and hanging out with other traders.... Studying price action by putting in the hours is the ONLY way.
I bet trend is my friend
IgorFX
  • #135
  • May 25, 2024 7:40am May 25, 2024 7:40am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi BW Well there will be plenty more big ego’s to argue with next year so see you then. Normal Algo’s will still have no chance in the modern market because HFT’s are coded to attack stacked liquidity. That means if there is more selling orders on the books, they Buy. So 75% of all positions will always get taken out. You can’t code for that HOWEVER AI bots that can change their coding halfway through a position may have better success rates. Is anyone making “thinking bots that can reprogram their strategy mid position” presently? And I...

I see your point about traditional algorithms struggling against HFT, but I think there's still a place for them in the market. Not all trading relies on speed alone, and traditional algorithms can perform well in longer-term investments and less volatile markets. Also, while AI that adjusts strategies in real-time sounds promising, it's complex and risky. Trading success isn't just about using the most advanced technology; understanding the market and managing risks are equally important.
IgorFX
  • #136
  • May 26, 2024 10:27pm May 26, 2024 10:27pm
My trading career in forex is just common. However, I also don't want to pay for signal providers, mentors, gurus, and so on because it takes money to pay for them, whereas in forex trading itself, money is needed for capital, if I pay for the course, it still has to spend money on deposits, not to mention the risks of trading, it is not guarantee that after paying the course fee you will be successful because the market is dynamic.
I trade at FXOpen
  • #137
  • May 30, 2024 6:20am May 30, 2024 6:20am
Quoting fxtimur
My trading career in forex is just common. However, I also don't want to pay for signal providers, mentors, gurus, and so on because it takes money to pay for them, whereas in forex trading itself, money is needed for capital, if I pay for the course, it still has to spend money on deposits, not to mention the risks of trading, it is not guarantee that after paying the course fee you will be successful because the market is dynamic.
Certainly, I'd argue that while there is no absolute guarantee of success in any field due to changing market conditions, paying for a course significantly enhances the likelihood of achieving success. Education provides the essential tools, skills, and knowledge necessary to navigate and adapt to these dynamics effectively. By investing in learning and development, individuals not only increase their expertise but also improve their ability to identify opportunities and mitigate risks, thereby substantially increasing their chances of success in a dynamic market.
IgorFX
  • #138
  • Jun 1, 2024 9:31am Jun 1, 2024 9:31am
While no field guarantees absolute success due to changing market conditions, investing in a course significantly enhances the likelihood of success. Education provides essential tools, skills, and knowledge needed to navigate and adapt to market dynamics effectively. By investing in learning and development, individuals increase their expertise, improve their ability to identify opportunities, and mitigate risks, thereby substantially boosting their chances of success in a dynamic market.
  • #139
  • Jun 1, 2024 1:54pm Jun 1, 2024 1:54pm
Quoting keyman.
{quote} Certainly, I'd argue that while there is no absolute guarantee of success in any field due to changing market conditions, paying for a course significantly enhances the likelihood of achieving success. Education provides the essential tools, skills, and knowledge necessary to navigate and adapt to these dynamics effectively. By investing in learning and development, individuals not only increase their expertise but also improve their ability to identify opportunities and mitigate risks, thereby substantially increasing their chances of success...
Аll those skills and techniques that you learn through education, both paid for and free, are about 5% of what is needed to become a consistently successful trader.
The other 95% is getting to know yourself. Without this, one always ends up losing in the end. Both in trading and in life.
This is why so many try to develop a purely technical, algorithmic solution based exclusively on the technicalities of those 5%. Because this way they hope to avoid the biggest unknown, that is themselves.
Which in itself, at least in most cases, is a delusion: the biggest unknown trying to ignore and circumvent this very same biggest unknown.
  • #140
  • Jun 27, 2024 6:19am Jun 27, 2024 6:19am
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”
protein for breakfast !
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