Hedging/averaging trades without prediction | Page 171 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Mathematical hedging strategy without a stop loss 22 replies

'Averaging Down Is for Losers' - valid or not? 27 replies

Fast Averaging versus Slow Averaging 1 reply

Averaging 7 replies

Martigale and Averaging Down 4 replies

Attachments: Hedging/averaging trades without prediction
Exit Attachments

Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,401
  • May 21, 2024 5:55am May 21, 2024 5:55am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Ha ha awesome I also manually bought the futures contract on Interactive Brokers.. PC
Took a loss on CAC / my futures acc, meanwhile still plus the last month in total. The DD got to scary!

My IG EA trade I leave alone and let the market gods decide my faith

PC

PS: This was a good test on DD and a reminder of nothing always goes as expected....
Less is more...
  • #3,402
  • May 21, 2024 6:10am May 21, 2024 6:10am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 point scalp.png Size: 7 KB


Taking 2 point scalps now
  • #3,403
  • May 21, 2024 6:36am May 21, 2024 6:36am
terry was talking about the ftse. there are years of experience reports.

no one has these on CAC or other indices.

patience & discipline and wait for the FTSE;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,404
  • May 21, 2024 6:44am May 21, 2024 6:44am
I didn't realize how big a poop it was going to be.
1.02^200
  • #3,405
  • Edited 7:00am May 21, 2024 6:49am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting d5400
I didn't realize how big a poop it was going to be.
When your diet is mainly fine cuisine and wine, it's to be expected.
Just checking my Oanda charts from yesterday and no sign of a gap on Fr40.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #3,406
  • May 21, 2024 7:18am May 21, 2024 7:18am
Quoting d5400
I didn't realize how big a poop it was going to be.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 pip scalp.png Size: 9 KB


Where ther's muck theres brass
  • #3,407
  • May 21, 2024 7:55am May 21, 2024 7:55am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} {image} Where ther's muck theres brass
We are fairly sure it's going to fill so scalping in that direction is a sound approach.
1.02^200
  • #3,408
  • May 21, 2024 8:09am May 21, 2024 8:09am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} {image} Where ther's muck theres brass
Wanted to get to 10 before the divi drop today, oh well 16 points is not to be sniffed at
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 point scalp.png Size: 9 KB
  • #3,409
  • May 21, 2024 8:35am May 21, 2024 8:35am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Wanted to get to 10 before the divi drop today, oh well 16 points is not to be sniffed at {image}
CAC has 4 divs this week and FTSE is once. So CAC divs are not very significant then.
1.02^200
  • #3,410
  • May 21, 2024 8:44am May 21, 2024 8:44am
Quoting d5400
{quote} CAC has 4 divs this week and FTSE is once. So CAC divs are not very significant then.
No idea to be honest, nice getting another added on though! Cool viva la Francais (don't know what that means)
  • #3,411
  • May 21, 2024 8:50am May 21, 2024 8:50am
Quoting d5400
{quote} We are fairly sure it's going to fill so scalping in that direction is a sound approach.
I'm scalping up and using my wins as the stop buffer so it's no risk(apart from the 1st few), just need to be good and control yourself... I'll go all the way to the Monday post div drop tomorrow if it's still working it.
  • #3,412
  • May 21, 2024 8:58am May 21, 2024 8:58am
Target is now changed to 8190. If I had more margin I would now have 4 entries based on todays div plus yesterdays and work out the middle +6 (extra two for 2nd night). Something to think about on CAC, use less margin if there is a big div and a few more in the week. The divs adjustments just keep paying.... far better than positive FX swop, like A LOT better.

Learning is great! Keep an open mind.
  • #3,413
  • May 21, 2024 9:40am May 21, 2024 9:40am
Quoting Headland
a large enough representative historical sample on which to judge whether an edge exists or not
Apparently you don't get any tick data from IG and the historical data that you can get via the API is very limited. It's hard to believe that a broker as big as IG doesn't provide better data here. Other brokers who may provide better data all seem to price the dividend adjustments differently. The statements I got here from ICM or Pepperst, for example, suggest that the dividend adjustments are priced in with the opening of the ex-div date. Unfortunately, these gaps are somehow completely different from what IG shows and from the numbers that are published in advance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bildschirmfoto 2024-05-21 um 18.12.11.png Size: 27 KB
  • #3,414
  • May 21, 2024 10:15am May 21, 2024 10:15am
Oh shiet i just woke up from a surgery.. where is my money?
Mai na gioia
  • #3,415
  • May 21, 2024 10:23am May 21, 2024 10:23am
Quoting Carabas
Oh shiet i just woke up from a surgery.. where is my money?
Gotta watch those surgeons. They are sneaky.
  • #3,416
  • May 21, 2024 12:56pm May 21, 2024 12:56pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
Missed the DIVI but now LONG from 8166 CAC and just trade the gap...
I LONGED again 8106, bagged myself 12 pip DIV today, so above water again...
  • #3,417
  • May 21, 2024 1:34pm May 21, 2024 1:34pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} I LONGED again 8106, bagged myself 12 pip DIV today, so above water again...
Great job staying on top of CAC.
1.02^200
  • #3,418
  • May 22, 2024 5:22am May 22, 2024 5:22am
Quoting d5400
{quote} Great job staying on top of CAC.
Limited internet access, back underwater, oh well, little more patience needed..
  • #3,419
  • May 22, 2024 5:46am May 22, 2024 5:46am
CAC seems to be looking for the gap at the wrong end, hehe.

I haven't found any historical data from IG yet to better test the dividend strategy. There doesn't seem to be a solution with other brokers either or has anyone found? Unfortunately, the daily prices do not help to get a more precise picture of whether x trades a la x risk-reward ratio over x period of time (at least in the past) led to x profitable result.

The overnight financing costs make it even more problematic if you have to hold the position(s) for days/weeks/months (who knows), as is the case with CAC.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Frankreich 40 Kassa (2€)_20240522_14.45.png Size: 47 KB
  • #3,420
  • May 22, 2024 6:41am May 22, 2024 6:41am
Quoting lddd
CAC seems to be looking for the gap at the wrong end, hehe. I haven't found any historical data from IG yet to better test the dividend strategy. There doesn't seem to be a solution with other brokers either or has anyone found? Unfortunately, the daily prices do not help to get a more precise picture of whether x trades a la x risk-reward ratio over x period of time (at least in the past) led to x profitable result. The overnight financing costs make it even more problematic if you have to hold the position(s) for days/weeks/months (who knows),...

I think with any system or strategy other than your own, you need to test it over a period to find its parameters of risk and reward.

Mr T , from the start, has said if you trade the Div strategy, then do so in small measures until your confident over time how they play out.
I am still in the CAC, have added to my positions with hopefully additional good r/r.
Also, like some, have also been in and out of the market.

For me and hopefully others, these last couple of days have highlighted that you do have to expect the unexpected . That's trading, I think.
The dd I am in, is it only the CAC to expect this uncertainty? or should it apply to all div trades you take? No idea, hence the trading over a period of time to establish parameters.

GL to everyone
1 trader viewing now