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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,341
  • May 20, 2024 12:58pm May 20, 2024 12:58pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Like said i am looking for a way to trade for a living and not to grow my account slowly over the years. I could buy stocks for that and don’t have to do/look at anything. I look at trading to generate a consistent cashflow. Terry recommended me to look at the ex dividend trade for the reason of simplicity. He said he knows people making more from that trade alone than many people working 9-5. I need to make about 5k/month to cover my living expenses and that is why i started trading at all. There are millions of books and people here telling...
"
I can’t find real help here
"

Hmm - ok bye then !
always learning
  • #3,342
  • May 20, 2024 1:01pm May 20, 2024 1:01pm
Missed the DIVI but now LONG from 8166 CAC and just trade the gap...
  • #3,343
  • May 20, 2024 1:16pm May 20, 2024 1:16pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Like said i am looking for a way to trade for a living and not to grow my account slowly over the years. I could buy stocks for that and don’t have to do/look at anything. I look at trading to generate a consistent cashflow. Terry recommended me to look at the ex dividend trade for the reason of simplicity. He said he knows people making more from that trade alone than many people working 9-5. I need to make about 5k/month to cover my living expenses and that is why i started trading at all. There are millions of books and people here telling...
Get a job. You'll feel better just from being useful to others. Selfishness is a road to nowhere.
1.02^200
  • #3,344
  • May 20, 2024 1:29pm May 20, 2024 1:29pm
Quoting griffc
{quote} " I can’t find real help here " Hmm - ok bye then !
And then you get these kind of answers :-) I didn’t say i will never find help here but that’s my current situation. Many people tried/trying to help but it somehow doesn’t lead to me getting one step closer of reaching a certain goal. You then get blamed for being negative or a dishonest person if you just ask some serious questions.

So there you go. I am trying to treat trading as a serious business to generate a consistent x minimum amount of money during x period of time doing x thing and i can’t find a solution for that.
  • #3,345
  • May 20, 2024 1:31pm May 20, 2024 1:31pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
Missed the DIVI but now LONG from 8166 CAC and just trade the gap...
I do prefer missing the div and only play the gap tbh, i'm slowly adding the lower it gets; prevision is to have the gap filled in 14 hours, after that i would get a bit anxious
Mai na gioia
  • #3,346
  • May 20, 2024 1:37pm May 20, 2024 1:37pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} And then you get these kind of answers :-) I didn’t say i will never find help here but that’s my current situation. Many people tried/trying to help but it somehow doesn’t lead to me getting one step closer of reaching a certain goal. You then get blamed for being negative or a dishonest person if you just ask some serious questions. So there you go. I am trying to treat trading as a serious business to generate a consistent x minimum amount of money during x period of time doing x thing and i can’t find a solution for that.
Trading is not a gimme, it's easier just to have a regular job, even if if you did start making money on a regular basis how do you know it will last, markets change all the time, one system does not last for ever you have to work and adapt 24/7, if you're looking for a" set and forget" then forget it if there was such a thing everyone would be using it and we all know there has to be losers to have winners...
  • #3,347
  • May 20, 2024 1:42pm May 20, 2024 1:42pm
Quoting d5400
{quote} Get a job. You'll feel better just from being useful to others. Selfishness is a road to nowhere.
Yes. It’s not that i don’t have a job or social life. I am seriously trying to find a way to replace my income from trading but don’t get anywhere. It’s super frustrating, indeed.
  • #3,348
  • May 20, 2024 1:43pm May 20, 2024 1:43pm
Quoting Carabas
{quote} I do prefer missing the div and only play the gap tbh, i'm slowly adding the lower it gets; prevision is to have the gap filled in 14 hours, after that i would get a bit anxious
Yes definitely a mind game, having that DD straight away is something to get use to and with time and experience I think you'll over come it, but if happy just trading the gap for a while then all good, Terry has given us a goose that lays the golden egg but it's up to us how we treat that goose...
  • #3,349
  • May 20, 2024 1:57pm May 20, 2024 1:57pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Yes definitely a mind game, having that DD straight away is something to get use to and with time and experience I think you'll over come it, but if happy just trading the gap for a while then all good, Terry has given us a goose that lays the golden egg but it's up to us how we treat that goose...
Yep god bless Terry; my worry is not the dd since usually that is compensated by the div, i just think entering after the gap gives me more freedom in case the price continues to go down; I only do this when the gap is big tho, which is usually not filled until the next day, so plenty of time for decide what to do
Mai na gioia
  • #3,350
  • May 20, 2024 2:33pm May 20, 2024 2:33pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Trading is not a gimme, it's easier just to have a regular job, even if if you did start making money on a regular basis how do you know it will last, markets change all the time, one system does not last for ever you have to work and adapt 24/7, if you're looking for a" set and forget" then forget it if there was such a thing everyone would be using it and we all know there has to be losers to have winners...
I never thought it would be easy or a gimme. I really try to treat it as a serious business

Regarding changing market conditions. That’s why i’d like to find a plan that can work all the time regardless of market conditions. Price goes up or down. Sometimes it’s more volatile, sometimes less. You don’t know when it does what. It’s a game of probabilities!

I don’t believe you have to „work hard“ or adapt all the time. The main purpose of trading is to make money and not so much to spend a lot of time in front of a screen (that’s my believe).

You don’t produce anything good to the world and most of the time it’s pretty boring. You wait for your signal enter, exit, repeat.
  • #3,351
  • May 20, 2024 2:37pm May 20, 2024 2:37pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Like said i am looking for a way to trade for a living and not to grow my account slowly over the years. I could buy stocks for that and don’t have to do/look at anything. I look at trading to generate a consistent cashflow. Terry recommended me to look at the ex dividend trade for the reason of simplicity. He said he knows people making more from that trade alone than many people working 9-5. I need to make about 5k/month to cover my living expenses and that is why i started trading at all. There are millions of books and people here telling...
Hi,
the mean reversion strategy from Lenart80 is good. It's a solid way to trade and you don't have to spend you're life in front of the screen.
Best
Chriss
  • #3,352
  • May 20, 2024 2:41pm May 20, 2024 2:41pm
Quoting chrissfx
{quote} Hi, the mean reversion strategy from Lenart80 is good. It's a solid way to trade and you don't have to spend you're life in front of the screen. Best Chriss
Is there a description of this strategy?
1.02^200
  • #3,353
  • May 20, 2024 2:49pm May 20, 2024 2:49pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I never thought it would be easy or a gimme. I really try to treat it as a serious business Regarding changing market conditions. That’s why i’d like to find a plan that can work all the time regardless of market conditions. Price goes up or down. Sometimes it’s more volatile, sometimes less. You don’t know when it does what. It’s a game of probabilities! I don’t believe you have to „work hard“ or adapt all the time. The main purpose of trading is to make money and not so much to spend a lot of time in front of a screen (that’s my believe)....
So you've been trying to find the holy grail for the last 15 years and have yet to find it, but you still believe its out there, good luck...ps how long have you tried Terry's DIVI trades for?
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  • #3,354
  • May 20, 2024 3:06pm May 20, 2024 3:06pm
Quoting Carabas
{quote} Yep god bless Terry; my worry is not the dd since usually that is compensated by the div, i just think entering after the gap gives me more freedom in case the price continues to go down; I only do this when the gap is big tho, which is usually not filled until the next day, so plenty of time for decide what to do
If you’re seriously with your trading the potential drawdown should be the ONLY thing to worry about and the only thing you can control (at least if your stops are respected).

I haven’t backtested it so far but I would like to know. I would like to know if and how many times a gap wasn’t filled in the last 10 years (the longer the better) or what the average drawdown has been.

How else you want to size your trades accordingly without knowing the potential drawdown? You need to know how much margin is likely needed etc to carry the position for x time at any time. Even a 99% win rate doesn’t mean a shit if that 1% loser will erase all your wins?
  • #3,355
  • May 20, 2024 3:18pm May 20, 2024 3:18pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} So you've been trying to find the holy grail for the last 15 years and have yet to find it, but you still believe its out there, good luck...ps how long have you tried Terry's DIVI trades for? {file}
Nothing to do with me looking for a holy grail. A robust trading plan that „likely“ makes x more win than x loss executing x over x time period, is what i am looking for.

Yes, i will continue to test it until i have something to speak about. Look at my previous posts and you will find that i am looking for solutions and i am not here to complain (broker to trade this with other than IG, potential return/drawdown over x indices trading it for x period of time etc.
  • #3,356
  • May 20, 2024 3:31pm May 20, 2024 3:31pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} If you’re seriously with your trading the potential drawdown should be the ONLY thing to worry about and the only thing you can control (at least if your stops are respected). I haven’t backtested it so far but I would like to know. I would like to know if and how many times a gap wasn’t filled in the last 10 years (the longer the better) or what the average drawdown has been. How else you want to size your trades accordingly without knowing the potential drawdown? You need to know how much margin is likely needed etc to carry the position...
I admit i also haven't done a seriuos backtest, but i ve been told for the FTSE100 the max drawdown recorded before was a 5% drop of the index: roughly, this should mean the max dd is equal to my open position, so for example if i entered with x% of my balance, i should be ready to suffer a dd of the same amount; this is a rough estime, but im going with that at moment
Mai na gioia
  • #3,357
  • May 20, 2024 3:39pm May 20, 2024 3:39pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Nothing to do with me looking for a holy grail. A robust trading plan that „likely“ makes x more win than x loss executing x over x time period, is what i am looking for. Yes, i will continue to test it until i have something to speak about. Look at my previous posts and you will find that i am looking for solutions and i am not here to complain (broker to trade this with other than IG, potential return/drawdown over x indices trading it for x period of time etc.
Ok
  • #3,358
  • May 20, 2024 3:43pm May 20, 2024 3:43pm
Quoting Carabas
{quote} I admit i also haven't done a seriuos backtest, but i ve been told for the FTSE100 the max drawdown recorded before was a 5% drop of the index: roughly, this should mean the max dd is equal to my open position, so for example if i entered with x% of my balance, i should be ready to suffer a dd of the same amount; this is a rough estime, but im going with that at moment
Thats good. Yes, better look it up. Don’t trust the internet or you end up like me :-)
  • #3,359
  • May 20, 2024 3:53pm May 20, 2024 3:53pm
CAC. Time UK =21:50

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  • #3,360
  • May 20, 2024 7:07pm May 20, 2024 7:07pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} And then you get these kind of answers :-) I didn’t say i will never find help here but that’s my current situation. Many people tried/trying to help but it somehow doesn’t lead to me getting one step closer of reaching a certain goal. You then get blamed for being negative or a dishonest person if you just ask some serious questions. So there you go. I am trying to treat trading as a serious business to generate a consistent x minimum amount of money during x period of time doing x thing and i can’t find a solution for that.
Quoting griffc
{quote} " I can’t find real help here " Hmm - ok bye then !
I think the key word here was that you can't find 'REAL' help.

You're smart enough to sort the live traders who post (and these are the guys advising you) from the system selling cowboys. So you can find REAL help here, but whether you assimilate it or not is down to your readiness to understand - not through will power but through experience.
Hence the ... 'well goodbye' as if the time (and content more to the point) is not appreciated or ready and able to be heard then I won't waste it.

I'll drop another post tomorrow
always learning
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