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Why is NZD so strong??

  • #101
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:24am Jul 6, 2007 1:24am
Quoting goop
According to the article in bloomberg ... companies in Nzd are already suffering. So i bet the business confidence is going to be very bad. Hopefully that will turn the grpah which looks like faling anymiute.

Short at 7824
err, don't be happy. The real effects will be known in few more months.
Until then...
  • #102
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:56am Jul 6, 2007 1:56am
Quoting goop
According to the article in bloomberg ... companies in Nzd are already suffering. So i bet the business confidence is going to be very bad. Hopefully that will turn the grpah which looks like faling anymiute.

Short at 7824
Business Confidence is dropping...
Employment is dropping...
Retail Sales is dropping...
Exports is dropping...

So what? That does not give a hoot to carry traders earning 8% from NZD than 0.5% from JPY...


Many months ago (last year) when NZDUSD was around 0.6500, Government and Central Bank has been cursing the carry traders for making NZD very expensive. Since then, NZDUSD climbed to 0.7800 and they are still cursing, warning and cursing some more?

Last June 11 Intervention, the market got a big surprise and I made some pips.. But all of these went away when I shorted it last NZ Retail Sales (very bad number) and yet it kept going up. Im net BIG LOSS. Sure I am sour graping. But hell, I'd rather NOT listen to those idiots again and follow the wise Japanese Housewives who are buying NZDJPY at each dips.

Were there any 2nd, 3rd Intervention? hmmm... all I know is that they announced they are "intervening" and I never saw it in NZDJPY/NZDUSD... Hmm perhaps my 4 brokers' charts are wrong?

Shorting it now at 0.7820s may be a wise decision considering its Friday where traders usually take profit and closing hours for the week means huge volatilty in case of RBNZ intervention. Hope you are right this time coz the last two times it bounced back up more than it dropped.

Simply put RBNZ has very limited ammo to fight against the carry traders.. and they kept issuing all these warnings to "ask" traders to short NZD.. unfortunately, carry traders fight back harder.
  • #103
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:08am Jul 6, 2007 2:08am
Thursday's price action generated a shooting star on
the candlesticks, often a bearish signal.. [ 7813 to 7883 and back.]
So def fall from here i pressume.
  • #104
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:33am Jul 6, 2007 2:33am
Quoting BurgerKing
I'd rather place my money where the Japanese are putting them. Sure it may be short NZD next time, but I'd rather be where the smart money is going.
In my opinion, deflation is still entrenched to Japan's economy, deflation brings retention of huge excess cash to individuals and corporates. Not only Japan but also worldwide movement.
Therefore, in current financial markets, profitable financial products are regarded as a target for fiercely-competitive scramble. We tend to treat high-interest currency(i.e. NZD,AUD and GBP. Some invest in ZAR,Turkish lira etc.) as a financial product for the sake of long-term gains(interest-rate swap).
Even if rate hike in August, movement of funds where people(including Japanese) are bucking for savings yielding high-rate interest and higher-yield investments seems to remain unchanged.
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Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #105
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:38am Jul 6, 2007 2:38am
Any turn in NZD/JPY, NZD/USD is wishful thinking. If you look at the charts you'll notice that there's a fierce recovery anytime these pairs dip. I remember trading these pairs at 69 and 59 last summer. Wow.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #106
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:39am Jul 6, 2007 2:39am
Sorry, for the source is used, is this one
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ntion-tracker/
it's the only one that I kind find and therefore follow
  • #107
  • Jul 6, 2007 8:38am Jul 6, 2007 8:38am
Quoting goop
Short at 7824
Calling RBNZ!
Help!
Mayday!
SOS!
Where is your intervention?

Oh I forgot! Its RBNZ calling traders to intervene for them! And last week, RBNZ announced to ask BoJ to help them..

Quote
13:40 NZD/USD: Kiwi Bolstered by Cross Demand San Francisco, Jul 6. Broad- based Kiwi demand against a number of crosses is currently supporting the currency. NZD/USD has just traded to session highs around 0.7848/50 and poised to revisit recent highs of 0.7880. EUR/NZD has fallen to session lows while NZD/JPY has traded to fresh 20-year highs of 96.84 this morning. AUD/NZD, after yesterday"s bounce to 1.0960, has resumed its bearish trend and is at session lows around d 1.0920, targeting the bids at 1.0900/10. Stops are expected below with further support at 1.0875 and 1.0835.
GBP/NZD has made a very substantial collapse today, breaking support around 2.5600 and triggering stops.
Some Kiwi bulls are now targeting gains to 0.7920, followed by 0.8000 with the high cash rates of 8.00% continuing to drive demand. [email protected]

Its all Interest Rates.... Bad Retail Sales, bad Trade balance, bad employment even bad mouthing by RBNZ dont add up to 8% interest.
  • #108
  • Jul 6, 2007 8:39am Jul 6, 2007 8:39am
lol, we are well on our way to go higher
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #109
  • Jul 6, 2007 9:03am Jul 6, 2007 9:03am
Exiting 70% at this time as price may be slightly extended with divergence in rsi coming in on dailys and weeklys in extreme overbought range, however will be looking to buy again on dips down in 7490 to 7350(most likely higher end) area. Very likely that a positive reversal will come in with top bottom support at that level - with MA's on momentum above key levels.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #110
  • Jul 6, 2007 12:52pm Jul 6, 2007 12:52pm
I haven't looked at this since my small trade last week but I have to say I am surprised how much higher it has gone. I guess if i was really smart i would have went long with it. Oh well. The pair seems to have developed good resistance around 7825 and 7870. It has really fallen off in the last couple of hours. We have what seems like good news for the dollar the last couple of days. Could this be the start? Hmm. I am going to wait until it breaks 7790 and see what happens. If it gets to the 7780 area i think I will go short with it and look for the mid 75's. Things look similar to 6/26 when I shorted last. I will wait till after Sunday opening.
  • #111
  • Jul 6, 2007 1:55pm Jul 6, 2007 1:55pm
Only when it is less expected?

12:20 We haven’t heard any rumors about the RBNZ lately, maybe they are waiting for everyone to drop their guard to act again???

I'll be watching next week's open.
  • #112
  • Jul 7, 2007 1:21pm Jul 7, 2007 1:21pm
How are investors going to ignore such a open warning i dont know,
beware come out before its too late....




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rld_currencies
  • #113
  • Edited 5:46pm Jul 7, 2007 5:35pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting goop
How are investors going to ignore such a open warning i dont know,
beware come out before its too late....




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rld_currencies

More talk and no action... yawn.


If RBNZ trully want to bring NZD down, they should keep selling and selling until all the carry traders could not buy anymore.

RBNZ repeatedly gave warning shoots - from their pea shooters... What RBNZ should do is bring out their big guns and start shooting already! Oh yeah I forgot, they dont have big guns.. Last time I heard, RBNZ only have less than half a yard to sell. Carry traders have far more than 100 times to buy...
  • #114
  • Jul 7, 2007 8:16pm Jul 7, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting goop
How are investors going to ignore such a open warning i dont know,
beware come out before its too late....




http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...rld_currencies

I think most of us here have been saying this for awhile now.
  • #115
  • Jul 8, 2007 8:23pm Jul 8, 2007 8:23pm
Okay. took this thing short @ 7788. Will see how it looks at 7750 if it gets there. SL @ 7713. Business Confidence comes out tomorrow. It can't be good can it? We will see. This is against a major trend but this trend is not supported fundamentally. I'll see. Have +20 PIPS from the last trade. What the heck.
  • #116
  • Jul 8, 2007 8:34pm Jul 8, 2007 8:34pm
Does Anybody know why the last nzd lose? Just because?
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #117
  • Jul 8, 2007 9:36pm Jul 8, 2007 9:36pm
Quoting Ado
Does Anybody know why the last nzd lose? Just because?
Traders panicked at the talk of RBNZ intervention
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #118
  • Jul 8, 2007 9:57pm Jul 8, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting Ado
Does Anybody know why the last nzd lose? Just because?
According to Bloomberg.com Moodys came out with a warning of a housing slow down in NZ eliminating the need for another interest rate hike this year.
  • #119
  • Jul 9, 2007 12:04am Jul 9, 2007 12:04am
Quoting rbock
According to Bloomberg.com Moodys came out with a warning of a housing slow down in NZ eliminating the need for another interest rate hike this year.
That did not prevent/discourage Japanese bargain hunters who bought at the dips..
  • #120
  • Jul 9, 2007 12:09am Jul 9, 2007 12:09am
Quoting DutchTrader
Traders panicked at the talk of RBNZ intervention
Panicked? Hmm.. or simply a technique to move the currency lower, so that its a BUY on dip?
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