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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #3,241
  • May 16, 2024 3:16pm May 16, 2024 3:16pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Sorry yes you are right I'm thinking of getting to £100 per point x2 positions would be £84k margin plus change leaving £15k ish for overnight and a few pips dip. Either way with scalping there's no getting around the margin requirements. Still that's a way off for me yet , can't get my head round leaving that much in overnight with a broker, as big as IG is.. plus my mattress would sink
Micro Futures of any use to you ?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,242
  • May 16, 2024 3:19pm May 16, 2024 3:19pm
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Hey guys, here I share the EA (sharing is caring). Play around with it, should work as is. I use it on my VPS (24/5) online. Latency is usually under 1 sec. It uses grids (under and over 16.35 candle) to milk the cow. I traded it on UK100, CAC and Stoxx. Dividend EA Settings: TP points pre-trade: This in case a pre-trade is taken, without the gap trades. If a gap-trade is taken, the TP for all, incl. pre-trade is at the close of the 16.29.59 price. (close of gap) ATR TF: The EA calculates the grid distance of ATR100 value. 1 min TF has more...
Was this on Futures?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,243
  • May 16, 2024 3:22pm May 16, 2024 3:22pm
Quoting T721
{quote} You can trade it anyway you like. Just build a system round it that suits you, there are no hard and fast rules. the more experience you get trading it for the rest of the year will give you confidence in the process. Just keep at it each week with real money, take your time, add a small % each month or two and journal it live going forward ...... Its easy really. Good luck n let me know how you get on by end of August
Good answer. Thank you! Yes, will stick to my little plan for now. Maybe trading a few more stock indices could help too.
  • #3,244
  • May 16, 2024 3:24pm May 16, 2024 3:24pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Micro Futures of any use to you ?
Hey Mr T how's it going? Hope you are all well.
Do they pay the dividend adjustment? If so and you can hold over night then yes it would be workable for me. Although I've yet to get my head around futures and their archaic ways....
  • #3,245
  • May 16, 2024 3:29pm May 16, 2024 3:29pm
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Hey Mr T how's it going? Hope you are all well. Do they pay the dividend adjustment? If so and you can hold over night then yes it would be workable for me. Although I've yet to get my head around futures and their archaic ways....
It's the low margins I like now that the EU has made spread betting more difficult
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #3,246
  • May 17, 2024 1:11am May 17, 2024 1:11am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Was this on Futures?
No, IG CFDs

PC
Less is more...
  • #3,247
  • May 17, 2024 1:17am May 17, 2024 1:17am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} It's the low margins I like now that the EU has made spread betting more difficult
the EU is a piece of shit that hopefully won't be around much longer. i could give so many examples of them going nuts. e.g. you can't buy ETFs from the US, like QQQ or SPY, because the EU has its own ETFs (to protect the citizens is their argument) that's crazy and restricts free trade.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,248
  • Edited 5:35am May 17, 2024 5:21am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Hey guys, here I share the EA (sharing is caring). Play around with it, should work as is. I use it on my VPS (24/5) online. Latency is usually under 1 sec. It uses grids (under and over 16.35 candle) to milk the cow. I traded it on UK100, CAC and Stoxx. Dividend EA Settings: TP points pre-trade: This in case a pre-trade is taken, without the gap trades. If a gap-trade is taken, the TP for all, incl. pre-trade is at the close of the 16.29.59 price. (close of gap) ATR TF: The EA calculates the grid distance of ATR100 value. 1 min TF has more...
If anybody has good quality data on IG it would be great to see some backtests on UK100, CAC etc.
unfortunately I only have 4 months "bad" data quality so I struggle to do it myself...

Cheers

PC
Less is more...
  • #3,249
  • May 17, 2024 6:17am May 17, 2024 6:17am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} If anybody has good quality data on IG it would be great to see some backtests on UK100, CAC etc. unfortunately I only have 4 months "bad" data quality so I struggle to do it myself... Cheers PC
Hey PC,

I've been looking for that too. IG's historical data, especially on the smaller time frames, does not go back far. My hope was that you could use the data from another broker, such as Dukascopy, which has good quality tick data for most trading assets, but of course that doesn't help if they don't even price in the dividend adjustments or if they then completely deviate from the data they published.

IG seems to be at least reasonably accurate in adjusting their prices to the dividend adjustments that they also publish on their blog. I have no idea why this doesn't seem to be the case with brokers like ICM and Afterprime. Is this perhaps because they are not market makers? Then it might be possible to look at other CFD brokers (market makers) who set the prices themselves instead of passing them on through their liquidity providers.

I just wanted to test your EA myself, but without reasonable data and a broker that makes sense to trade with, it doesn't seem to be of any use.
  • #3,250
  • May 17, 2024 6:33am May 17, 2024 6:33am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hey PC, I've been looking for that too. IG's historical data, especially on the smaller time frames, does not go back far. My hope was that you could use the data from another broker, such as Dukascopy, which has good quality tick data for most trading assets, but of course that doesn't help if they don't even price in the dividend adjustments or if they then completely deviate from the data they published. IG seems to be at least reasonably accurate in adjusting their prices to the dividend adjustments that they also publish on their blog....
Yeah you are spot on, its quite challenging to test it for the reasons you stated. I started building an EA for Tradingview, backtesting etc. looks better there...

Meanwhile I traded my EA live and it works well so far. Have it set to CAC for today...

PC
Less is more...
  • #3,251
  • May 17, 2024 7:09am May 17, 2024 7:09am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Yeah you are spot on, its quite challenging to test it for the reasons you stated. I started building an EA for Tradingview, backtesting etc. looks better there... Meanwhile I traded my EA live and it works well so far. Have it set to CAC for today... PC
Yes. I'll let you know if I find a solution.

CAC looks good. 24.7 points are expected according to IG. Don't forget that today is Friday and you may have to hold the trade until Monday (or even longer) until the gap is closed / profit target is reached. The overnight financing costs make it even more difficult because you pay them even in the event of a loss.

I have no idea whether it's even profitable at all, let alone the relatively high margin requirements that you have to have with IG in order to be able to enter into the trade with a halfway worthwhile position size. But I will also try CAC with the EA today at little risk, see how it works.
  • #3,252
  • May 17, 2024 7:28am May 17, 2024 7:28am
I trade a varient of the dividend strategy with my broker Axi Trader though iv'e a pro account with 500:1 leverage so it is a lot easier to add positions and control risk. I couldn't really see how i could make much money with it using IG for example as their margin rate is laughable and you'd need serious bank to earn a living from it.

I basically just trade twice a week and only the FTSE and the Dow. I would advice as previously stated to use very small position sizes (on a real account don't use demo) at first until you get a feel for it the reason being the gap is not always closed within 24hrs and news events can kick the shit out of you mentally if it goes against you.

Honestly though if you work on the mental side of your game when employing this strategy (mine is not exactly as advised by T721 btw) it can be very profitable and yes very stress free which is more important for me as stress leads to bad decision making which is an absolute killer for us traders.
  • #3,253
  • Edited 8:39am May 17, 2024 7:56am | Edited 8:39am
I thought that might be another alternative as a broker because you get 200:1 Leverage. But look at this? This makes the whole thing even more difficult if you are already trading with a large position size and are holding a trade with a narrowly calculated margin, possibly over the weekend, and are then screwed on Monday morning because your stop may not have triggered and there was a huge spike.

TD365 - FTSE 29/04/24

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IG - FTSE 29/04/24

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Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE100M5-290424_IG.png Size: 12 KB

ICM - FTSE 29/04/24

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Click to Enlarge Name: UK100.M5-290424_ICM.png Size: 13 KB
  • #3,254
  • May 17, 2024 8:39am May 17, 2024 8:39am
Quoting Dubit10
I trade a varient of the dividend strategy with my broker Axi Trader though iv'e a pro account with 500:1 leverage so it is a lot easier to add positions and control risk.
Can you find two trades every week if you just follow the two indices mentioned? Do you have a minimum size of the expected dividend adjustment in points and where to you place your stop? Assuming you find 2 trades per week with at least a 5 point dividend adjustment, that would be a potential 40 point profit per month assuming all are winners and none of them are stopped out.

You can increase the positions by adding and making them even larger. But I think if you want to make a living from it, it might be better to start thinking from a minimum that can be expected/achieved (consistently) instead of what you can probably increase.
  • #3,255
  • May 17, 2024 9:10am May 17, 2024 9:10am
What time CAC DIV and is it worth doing, sorry driving
  • #3,256
  • May 17, 2024 9:14am May 17, 2024 9:14am
Quoting Waveskierrob
What time CAC DIV and is it worth doing, sorry driving
Aprox 75 min from now (16.30 UK time), its a low number today 7.3

https://community.ig.com/blogs/entry...20th-may-2024/

cheers

PC
Less is more...
  • #3,257
  • May 17, 2024 9:21am May 17, 2024 9:21am
Quoting Waveskierrob
What time CAC DIV and is it worth doing, sorry driving
Let's goo France!
1.02^200
  • #3,258
  • May 17, 2024 9:24am May 17, 2024 9:24am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Aprox 75 min from now (16.30 UK time), its a low number today 7.3 https://community.ig.com/blogs/entry...20th-may-2024/ cheers PC
cheers buddy
  • #3,259
  • May 17, 2024 9:25am May 17, 2024 9:25am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Aprox 75 min from now (16.30 UK time), its a low number today 7.3 https://community.ig.com/blogs/entry...20th-may-2024/ cheers PC
Oh, i looked at Monday. Only 7.3 today.
  • #3,260
  • May 17, 2024 9:34am May 17, 2024 9:34am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Oh, i looked at Monday. Only 7.3 today.
Yup. Monday CAC looks better in fact next week, its only CAC who looks interesting:

https://community.ig.com/blogs/entry...27th-may-2024/

PC
Less is more...
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