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Mathematical hedging strategy without a stop loss 22 replies

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Attachments: Hedging/averaging trades without prediction
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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

Gap closed but forgot to set TP on the second long position and it now moved back south. It's striking how this large candle filled the gap at exactly 01:00 GMT+1. Is there anything special about that time?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE100-M5.png Size: 42 KB
Guys,

I hired a pro coder to make a Dividend Trading EA some weeks ago, I dont mind sharing it here if there is any interest.
Dosent make sense others spend time and money on doing the same all over again

Preview here: https://gyazo.com/eeb9b7671642ca30b07f86f6410486d2

PC
Less is more...
Quoting pipcruiser
Guys, I hired a pro coder to make an EA some weeks ago, I dont mind sharing it here if there is any interest. Dosent make sense others spend time and money on doing the same all over again Preview here: https://gyazo.com/eeb9b7671642ca30b07f86f6410486d2 PC
Hi pipc ---- nice to share something you paid money for. Im sure many will find it useful. I have no idea how to work EA things but much appreciated for selflessly sharing it. Top Man
Quoting pipcruiser
Guys, I hired a pro coder to make a Dividend Trading EA some weeks ago, I dont mind sharing it here if there is any interest. Dosent make sense others spend time and money on doing the same all over again Preview here: https://gyazo.com/eeb9b7671642ca30b07f86f6410486d2 PC
Might be useful for backtesting. I started to compiling the numbers for he ex-dividend figures published by IG. They start on June 11, 2018. So 5,9 years.

I'll be happy to publish the Excel spreadsheet when I'm finished. Unfortunately, this is quite time-consuming. However, I didn't find an API or anything where you could easily pull up the data and many of the other dividend calendars are on stocks. I also thought that if these always took place at the same time for each index, it might be easier to program something to extract or even directly test/trade/backtest these numbers based on some broker's historical price feed who adjusts for all these dividends.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bildschirmfoto 2024-05-16 um 11.34.32.png Size: 27 KB
For semi-automated trading of the dividend trade you can also use the following MT4 EA. This means that orders can at least be set in advance based on time. I already tested it yesterday and it works well, provided you have a low latency.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TimedOrder.mq4   42 KB | 78 downloads
Quoting T721
aint it fun making money some guys tins are bigger than others {image} {image}
Ts ftse div ------ made in Scotland fae girders

Inserted Video
Quoting T721
{quote} Ts ftse div ------ made in Scotland fae girders https://youtu.be/Yh2yZf8F-60?si=yy-qoZkAxCA6Anfh
Thats my son btw
Quoting pipcruiser
Guys, I hired a pro coder to make a Dividend Trading EA some weeks ago, I dont mind sharing it here if there is any interest. Dosent make sense others spend time and money on doing the same all over again Preview here: https://gyazo.com/eeb9b7671642ca30b07f86f6410486d2 PC
Hey guys, here I share the EA (sharing is caring).

Play around with it, should work as is. I use it on my VPS (24/5) online. Latency is usually under 1 sec.
It uses grids (under and over 16.35 candle) to milk the cow. I traded it on UK100, CAC and Stoxx.

Dividend EA Settings:

TP points pre-trade: This in case a pre-trade is taken, without the gap trades.

If a gap-trade is taken, the TP for all, incl. pre-trade is at the close of the 16.29.59 price. (close of gap)

ATR TF: The EA calculates the grid distance of ATR100 value. 1 min TF has more narrow grids than ie 5 min TF, as the ATR100 is less.

Down distance points: Min. gap treshold in order to initiate trades (besides the pre-trade)

Time, day, grid settings, pre-trade on/off etc : Should be obvious

The grid-over: To catch the whole move up, after the initial trade for max profits..

Keep in mind some brokers dont allow to narrow grids/TP etc. so they might not fire...

PS: In backtest the pre-trades dont fire, not sure why, but they do in live trading.

I tested the EA live and it works fine so far, use on own risk!

PC
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DIVIDEND GAP STRATEGY_V6_2.ex4   46 KB | 138 downloads
Less is more...
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Hey guys, here I share the EA (sharing is caring). Play around with it, should work as is. I use it on my VPS (24/5) online. Dividend EA Settings: TP points pre-trade: This in case a pre-trade is taken, without the gap trades. If a gap-trade is taken, the TP for all, incl. pre-trade is at the close of the 16.29.59 price. (close of gap) ATR TF: The EA calculates the grid distance of ATR100 value. 1 min TF has more narrow grids than ie 5 min TF TF, as the ATR100 is less. Down distance points: Min. gap treshold in order to initiate trades (besides...
(sharing is caring).

Again, Top Man and thanks for sharing in Robskis thread
Quoting T721
{quote} (sharing is caring). Again, Top Man and thanks for sharing in Robskis thread
My pleasure
Less is more...
Quoting birdland
Yeah, you have to step up you're AI these days Yes, it's helpful, thank you! No confusion Man, that's awesome. About 6 months green days is truly awesome. I hope this question is not to far out there but, do you think you could produce similar results with random entries and PA, the way you, wave and the other guys were trading at the beginning of the theard? NO And how do you handle those runaway these days? ITS NOTHING NEW, OCCURING SINCE YEARS: ON THESE DAYS HEDGING IS KING Yes I fully understand the forest/nature thing,...
Got it! Thanks for answering
Quoting lddd
{quote} Might be useful for backtesting. I started to compiling the numbers for he ex-dividend figures published by IG. They start on June 11, 2018. So 5,9 years. I'll be happy to publish the Excel spreadsheet when I'm finished. Unfortunately, this is quite time-consuming. However, I didn't find an API or anything where you could easily pull up the data and many of the other dividend calendars are on stocks. I also thought that if these always took place at the same time for each index, it might be easier to program something to extract or even...
Backtest all you want but i have been trading these for a helluva long time. Just get in the trades and forward test with real money and if you are a bit skeptical keep your size small --- 20cents 50cents 80cents etc, then scale up 10% on each position after you been trading them for 2mnths
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Hey guys, here I share the EA (sharing is caring).
Awesome. Thanks, I'll test that out. No idea about grid trading though. So the grid makes small, segmented trades instead of placing one larger order? Based on the last FTSE trade from yesterday, could you say which broker you are using and the timing?
Quoting T721
{quote} Backtest all you want but i have been trading these for a helluva long time. Just get in the trades and forward test with real money and if you are a bit skeptical keep your size small --- 20cents 50cents 80cents etc, then scale up 10% on each position after you been trading them for 2mnths
Yeah right. I'm already testing this live. Currently at 2% risk per trade. 1% for the first buy position before the gap and an additional 1% for the 2nd. The size of the gap is used as a stop, and the gap is closed as the goal. Which then corresponds to 1:1. In the last FTSE trade -20 points of risk for +20 points of profit. Such a 20 point win at 10 €/point is nice, but where I live it doesn't get you very far, especially if you then pay taxes on it.

Backtesting may help to find out what a good stop is. Yes, I know, many people here seem to trade without stops, but I don't know how else to limit my risk and it would be unreasonable. I just think that FTSE alone with one trade per Wednesday will not be enough to make a living given the position/risk size. Especially when most gaps are only a few points and 20 point gaps are the exception. You might not find a trade for weeks or even months.
Quoting lddd
{quote} Might be useful for backtesting. I started to compiling the numbers for he ex-dividend figures published by IG. They start on June 11, 2018. So 5,9 years. I'll be happy to publish the Excel spreadsheet when I'm finished. Unfortunately, this is quite time-consuming. However, I didn't find an API or anything where you could easily pull up the data and many of the other dividend calendars are on stocks. I also thought that if these always took place at the same time for each index, it might be easier to program something to extract or even...
"They start on June 11, 2018. So 5,9 years."

Also, you can extrapolate gap close data from the start of IG data provision - Sadly I can't remember the dates for this image but for what it's worth it's a daily TF snapshot and the principle remains useful for visual confirmation if nothing else.

My IG data goes back to November 1990. Sure I don't know what happened on the 2minute chart back in 1990 but I know that *if* the Wednesday gapped down then I can see on the daily TF if it closed the gap over the next few days. and get a worst case scenario on draw downs. Helps build the data set.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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on the image all lines point to Wednesdays - Green lines got gaps closed, Red needed a BIG stop and would have stopped me out, dotted red was on the cusp of stop out depending on spread.

Posting this in case it is useful in anyway to help the thought processes going on.
always learning
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} 1. 沒有什麼是一成不變的 2. 我不是專家，但我確實有一些可能有幫助的工具和想法 3. 請不要預測還有其他線程 4. 嘗試這些想法在DEMO 上至少使用一個月5. 大銀行並交易最小手數6....

If possible, I wonder if I could get your read-only account to learn from your valuable experience!
Quoting griffc
My IG data goes back to November 1990. .
Thank you. Very good information. My IG Daily Chart also seems to go back to November 6, 1990. That probably won't be necessary. The last 10 years would be nice to know.

I could imagine that a fixed stop in size of the dividend adjustment makes little sense, especially if it is rather small. For next Wednesday, 1.91 points are indicated for the FTSE. With a 2 point stop you would probably be out again straight away. On the other hand, a stop 10 times as large in relation to the profit target wouldn't be so good either. The spread seems to be fixed between 1-4 points on IG. In the last two trades I had 2 points. In such a case, a 2-point win might not even cover the costs.
  • #3,218
  • Quote
  • May 16, 2024 11:09am May 16, 2024 11:09am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thank you. Very good information. My IG Daily Chart also seems to go back to November 6, 1990. That probably won't be necessary. The last 10 years would be nice to know. I could imagine that a fixed stop in size of the dividend adjustment makes little sense, especially if it is rather small. For next Wednesday, 1.91 points are indicated for the FTSE. With a 2 point stop you would probably be out again straight away. On the other hand, a stop 10 times as large in relation to the profit target wouldn't be so good either. The spread seems to...
Spread info: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-suppo...roduct-details
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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always learning
  • #3,219
  • Quote
  • May 16, 2024 12:21pm May 16, 2024 12:21pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yeah right. I'm already testing this live. Currently at 2% risk per trade. 1% for the first buy position before the gap and an additional 1% for the 2nd. The size of the gap is used as a stop, and the gap is closed as the goal. Which then corresponds to 1:1. In the last FTSE trade -20 points of risk for +20 points of profit. Such a 20 point win at 10 €/point is nice, but where I live it doesn't get you very far, especially if you then pay taxes on it. Backtesting may help to find out what a good stop is. Yes, I know, many people here seem...
Sounds like you gonna need a bigger bank
  • #3,220
  • Quote
  • May 16, 2024 12:40pm May 16, 2024 12:40pm
Quoting griffc
{quote} Spread info: https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-suppo...roduct-details {image}
Thanks. Here is a direct comparison to yesterday's Dividend Adjustment on FTSE with some of my broker accounts. IG seems to be the most accurate to match what they published in advance with what actually happened. The all differ greatly. IC Markets only a 3,4 Points Gap. No idea where they adjusted for a 20.75 Points as published.


IG
Expected dividend adjustment: 20.80
Close (16:29): 8441.3
Open: (16:30): 8420.6
Gap = 20,7

Afterprime
Expected dividend adjustment: No info found
Close (23:57): 8436.93
Open (01:00): 8409.30
Gap = 27,63

IC Markets
Expected dividend adjustment: 20.75
Close (23:59): 8413.40
Open (01:02): 8410.00
Gap = 3,4

FTMO
Expected dividend adjustment: No info found
Close (23:48): 8442.04
Open (01:05): 8430.48
Gap = 11,56
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