Bella's One (Cable)

Back with my Milkshake which is mango ... watching the charts as the Cable takes out 1.25515 .. and how high can it go for today..

in the meantime ,

I am dedicating this song to the ladies that somehow came in my life either through forex factory or in Istanbul .. it is good to know you.. ( doesn't matter which part of USA you live ).. oops i wasn't referring to only USA ... we got Indiara Aunty and Katrina Aunty.. and God what about dot dot dot Europeans and my dear neighbors fulya aunty and far neighbors meral aunty.

Thank you for being there . it's been almost 2 years i am in Istanbul and met such beautiful ladies the song is dedicated to all of you.

Savage Garden ( To the Moon and Back )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2gfyYQZzgI

Update on CPR and B-CPR

as of Today 13.05.2024 the optimized values for CPR Width forecasting is less than 6 pips for GBPUSD. ( Derived from B-CPR)

Bella.

Good Evening,

Today, i still have no clear signal for Top formation

1. Bella's Pivot - Pivot Point = 0.00387 > 6 Pips requirement

-----------------------------------
Central Pivot Range



What about Traditional CPR ( Central Pivot Range )?

The book says : Typically, an extremely tight central pivot range indicates the market
traded sideways or consolidated in the prior period of time (from which the high, low, and close were derived). As
such, this price behavior usually leads to breakout or trending behavior in the following session..

Question you may have
Q1. Lets say Friday is 25 and Monday is 2 ( which is Truth ) how do i know this is "tight"?
Q2. Lets say Monday it was 2 but Tuesday it shows 13 .. This is possibly still tight ?

All above are good questions ( using the B-CPR i provided less than 6 pips but this is static figure coming from B-CPR and may not work with Traditional CPR in all market conditions ( sometimes you may see 13 will work ).. Feel free to research in the book or on the internet about answers to these questions.. (i'll get to that later with my own solution )


Bella.

Central Pivot Range (continue....)


Why use Pivot Width Analysis.

Pivot Width Analysis allows you to forecast the likelihood of a market experiencing either a trading range or trending phase. This approach allows you to easily forecast expansions and breakouts opportunities.

Compression leads to Expansion..

Narrow Value ( 13.05.2024 , Width = 2 compared to 25 on 10.05.2024 )
a narrow value implies an increase in volatility with breakout potential.

Wide Value (14.05.2024 , Width = 13 compared to 2 on 13.05.2024)
After an expansion phase, wide value area tend to develop. Which suggests an upcoming trading range market.

There were 2 Question which require answering ( let's revise the Ques again)

 

1. Q1. Lets say Friday is 25 and Monday is 2 ( which is Truth ) how do i know this is "tight"?
2. Q2. Lets say Monday it was 2 but Tuesday it shows 13 .. This is possibly still tight ?

We need a way to quantify the Narrow value and Wide value. One way to solve this problem is to relate the value areas with Expansion and Compression percentages ( you may have seen this phenomena with Bollinger Bands, they contract and expand?).. Good .

Narrow Value: To Quantify Narrow Width Value we will use 65% of compression of prior day's value. In other words if the Pivot Width of today has decreased 65% or more from yesterday's Pivot Width we shall call it “Narrow Value”.

Example :
Friday 10.05.2024 , Width = 25
Monday 13.05.2024 , Width = 2

Performing Calc to check if the criteria is met for Narrow Width

Initial = 25
Decrease = 2
Dec Amt = 23
Calc Dec% = 23/25 = 0.92 : Change to Percentage = 92% decrease

Therefore, 92% decrease is more than 65% which states monday has Narrow width area.

Wide Value: To Quantify Wide Value we will use 125% increase in value. If the Pivot Width today has increased 125% or more from prior day's Pivot Width we will call it “Wide Value”.

Example:
Monday 13.05.2024 , Width = 2
Tuesday 14.05.2024 , Width = 13

Performing Calc to check if the criteria is met for Wide Width

Initial = 2
Increase = 13
Inc Amt = 11
Calc Inc% = 11/2 = 5.5 . Change to percentage = 550% increase.

Therefore, 550% increase is more than 125% which states tuesday has Wide width area.

In this paper i covered how to find out if today's Pivot Width is Wide or Narrow using 65% and 125% increase / decrease criteria.

Please note: there maybe more ways to calculate wide or narrow width areas which is left to the reader to research.

-Bella.

Current Rate : 1.25556

Market is finding resistance at the D1 Resistance (1.25617) and there is ATR-Resistance (1.25704) . Trend is still Long from yesterday's trading activity.
i have no signs of Topping for today .. waiting on the sideline


GBP/USD

Going Long at this range


Long GBPUSD: 1.25129
S/L : 1.25020
T/P: ++++++++++++++++

risk is 10 Pips ...

my reasoning is no milkshake ... actually my new indicators think take a small risk trade .. go ahead.. you can do it..

Posting the chart that goes with the trade..

GBP/USD

took +17 Pips profit with 0.15 lots

0.15 lots in hand.

To Bulls,

We worked as a Team and Delivered , The odds were against us but we proved this ends here and Now.

Adjusted S/L to 1.25190 locked +6 pips.

re-adjusted S/L to 1.25368 locked +23 Pips.. Back after EOD .. need to keep an eye on the "Trend Quality" when new day starts

GBP/USD

New Day Started,

re-adjusting stoploss to 1.25600 locked +47 Pips . Trend Quality still not back to normal readings.. consolidation could be seen for today.

Fibonacci Analysis

The GBP/USD pair rebounded yesterday from 1.25088 by closing above a minor resistance level 1.25617. This indicates that rise from 1.24452 is progressing. As such, the initial bias is again on the upside. Holding above the Daily Pivot 1.25640 will target 61.8% projection level 1.26522 between A. 1.26340 and B 1.24452.

[quote=Bella.al;14867196]Fibonacci Analysis The GBP/USD pair rebounded yesterday from 1.25088 by closing above a minor resistance level 1.25617. This indicates that rise from 1.24452 is progressing. As such, the initial bias is again on the upside. Holding above the Daily Pivot 1.25640 will target 61.8% projection level 1.26522 between A. 1.26340 and B 1.24452. {image}[/quote

"c"??
1.2650?
no..higher

17 pips??
ok, you are only scalping
try to have a mix between scalping and swing..open small positions,scale in..take your scalps in profit and let the swings run, watch out H4 or daily sup or res, fibs or pivot to cash out your swings, never without sl,
the weekly candle!!!
never ever adding to losing positions..only my advice
your entry was perfect.
trade well

Pivot Points

without commentary

Made some minor updates to the utility .. now Trend Quality Shows ( Weak Uptrend ).

Trailing Stop at 1.25600 ... Locked +47 Pips .

GBP/USD

Made new update to the utility called Pivot Quality that works with Bella's Pivot Point. Currently it shows (COLOR: Sea Green) that today Daily Support1 : 1.25360 will not be touched (like yesterday) and Possibly my stop loss at 1.25600 just below the pivot is safe ..

GBP/USD

re-adjusting SL to 1.25770 locked +64 Pips

Current Rate : 1.26086

Very Busy New York Today.. schedule is full of news.

revising the figures.

1. High of 1.26340 (03 May')
2. Low of Today : 1.25775

These two figures are important today. If there is any kind of high/low distribution in other words market is going to trade inside a specific range. for e.g i already have a "Weak Up trend" from morning, so now we may see spikes up and down that could cause a breakout market for tomorrow .. it will be interesting as it develops and as it unfolds.

-Bella.